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Whisper Numbers: How high will Iron Man 3 fly?

Marvel once again kicks off the summer blockbuster movie season with Iron Man 3 [IRNM3] the third solo outing for the armored superhero played by Robert Downey Jr. [RDOWN]. Although the film is technically a sequel to 2010’s Iron Man 2, the story in Iron Man 3 follows the events of last year’s The Avengers, where Iron Man last made his appearance alongside Thor, Captain America and Hulk. As we all know, The Avengers set the all-time opening weekend record at $207.4 million and was beloved by moviegoers. That exceptional goodwill should overcome the underwhelming after-taste of Iron Man 2, which debuted to $128.1 million three years ago this weekend.

While Iron Man 2 played like a set up for The Avengers, the focus of Iron Man 3 is back squarely on Tony Stark. Gwyneth Paltrow [GPALT] is back as his love interest Pepper Potts while, his most famous comic foe The Mandarin, played by Ben Kingsley [BKING], finally makes his appearance. Shane Black takes over as director from Jon Favreau, and reviews so far have been overwhelmingly positive. Disney opened the PG-13 rated film first overseas, and the favorable reception has helped to fuel the buzz. The third Batman film The Dark Knight Rises debuted at $160.9 million without the benefit of 3D, though the theater shooting had a small effect. Blasting into 4235 theaters, Iron Man 3 should reach upwards of at least $160 million.

Despite a number one opening, Pain & Gain [PAING] was not well-received even by its older male target audience. The action comedy may lose 55% in its second session to $9 million. Facing competition in its third week of release, Oblivion [OBLVN] looks to drop 55% to $8 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): IRNM3, RDOWN, GPALT, BKING, PAING, OBLVN

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 2, 2013 @ 03:44 PM 2797 views

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Fred Hechinger (FHECH) 7 32.22 (-0.12)          Gremlins 3 (GREM3) 149999 0.77 (-0.02)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 116856 60.51 (+0.51)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 150000 86.66 (+0.12)          Andrew Stanton (ANSTA) 25000 161.77 (+0.50)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 126508 60.51 (+0.51)          The Garfield Movie (GRFLD) 75000 86.66 (+0.12)          Elio (ELIO) 5000 116.01 (-0.76)          Kalki 2898 A.D. (KALKI) 3500 8.07 (-0.20)          Joker: Folie Ă  Deux (JOKE2) 800 266.06 (-0.50)          Back to Black (BTBLK) 149999 21.14 (-0.03)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 4000 132.91 (-0.47)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 1 22.77 (-0.06)          Good Fortune (GDFRT) 1000 29.87 (-0.20)          Heat 2 (HEAT2) 1000 45.91 (-0.20)          Greta Lee (GLEE) 59 70.50 (-0.01)          The Wager (WAGER) 2500 36.73 (+1.16)          Star Trek Origin Story (TREK4) 400 70.09 (+0.08)          The Return (TRETU) 9200 4.10 (+0.41)          Inferno (IFRNO) 149999 0.32 (-0.01)          The Return (TRETU) 150000 4.10 (+0.41)          The Return (TRETU) 9200 4.10 (+0.41)          Lips Like Sugar (LIPLS) 1200 11.73 (+0.39)          Henry Golding (HGOLD) 35 48.17 (0.00)          Anora (ANORA) 5200 4.10 (+0.49)          Nobody 2 (NOBO2) 5000 16.80 (+0.91)          The Wager (WAGER) 4000 36.73 (+1.16)          Borderline (BRLIN) 150000 12.02 (-0.06)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 2600 60.51 (+0.51)          The Wager (WAGER) 112 36.73 (+1.16)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 112 60.51 (+0.51)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 104867 60.51 (+0.51)          Alan Ritchson (ARITC) 65 88.76 (+0.25)          Tank Girl (TANKG) 149999 13.43 (-0.03)          Between the Temples (BTMPL) 900 1.34 (0.00)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 149999 32.57 (-0.09)          Van Helsing (VANHL) 149999 1.66 (-0.01)          Bird (BIRD) 2244 2.82 (0.00)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 5000 23.01 (+0.38)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 198 60.51 (+0.51)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 150000 57.43 (+0.60)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 150000 57.43 (+0.60)          The Movie Critic (TMOVC) 150000 32.57 (-0.09)          The Wager (WAGER) 150000 36.73 (+1.16)          The Wager (WAGER) 150000 36.73 (+1.16)          Nobody 2 (NOBO2) 150000 16.80 (+0.91)          Nobody 2 (NOBO2) 150000 16.80 (+0.91)          Abigail (ABGAL) 150000 31.04 (-0.19)          The Ministry Of Ungentlemanly Wa (TMOUW) 150000 22.77 (-0.06)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 75000 117.95 (-0.38)