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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 3652 views

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The Instigators (NSTGT) 150000 20.84 (-12.28)          Lips Like Sugar (LIPLS) 100000 9.90 (+0.18)          The Instigators (NSTGT) 150000 20.84 (-12.28)          Animal Friends (ANFRN) 150000 58.85 (+0.75)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.73 (-0.54)          Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson (VINEL) 150000 30.81 (+0.16)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.73 (-0.54)          Untitled Ryan Coogler Event Movi (URCEM) 150000 64.16 (+0.76)          Spawn (SPWN2) 1000 3.83 (+0.34)          Tarot (HRSCP) 150000 23.70 (-1.98)          Jurassic World Event Film (JURA7) 150000 250.22 (+1.17)          Spawn (SPWN2) 2000 3.83 (+0.34)          Tron: Ares (TRON3) 150000 83.58 (+1.11)          The Return (TRETU) 1 7.78 (+3.83)          The Roses (TROSE) 150000 19.60 (+0.91)          The Return (TRETU) 1 7.78 (+3.83)          Jonathan Rhys Meyers (JRMEY) 1000 8.05 (0.00)          The Roses (TROSE) 150000 19.60 (+0.91)          Nicolas Cage (NCAGE) 25000 7.75 (-0.19)          Nicolas Cage (NCAGE) 23000 7.75 (-0.19)          Cynthia Erivo (CERIV) 25000 23.31 (-1.06)          Dev Patel (DPATE) 25000 10.58 (-0.43)          Jermaine Fowler (JFOWL) 25000 11.84 (+0.10)          Kingdom of the Planet of the Ape (APES4) 150000 131.42 (-0.28)          Jessie Buckley (JSBUC) 25000 20.12 (-0.27)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 150000 296.02 (+2.87)          The Fall Guy - Opening Weekend (FALGY.OW) 100000 41.09 (-1.46)          The Kingsman 3 (KTSS4) 2544 18.28 (-0.08)          Fantastic Four (FANF2) 88316 161.90 (+0.32)          Cynthia Erivo (CERIV) 25000 23.31 (-1.06)          Madden (MADEN) 1 35.96 (+1.66)          Madden (MADEN) 25000 35.96 (+1.66)          Jonathan Rhys Meyers (JRMEY) 1000 8.05 (0.00)          Nicolas Cage (NCAGE) 1000 7.75 (-0.19)          Battlestar Galactica (BGALA) 28826 8.93 (+0.03)          Civil War (CVLWR) 10000 61.29 (+0.47)          Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (MMAX5) 150000 152.63 (-1.95)          The Wasp (TWASP) 4 0.69 (+0.14)          Cheech Marin (CMARI) 25000 83.26 (-1.20)          Dennis Quaid (DQUAI) 25000 17.11 (-0.70)          The Roses (TROSE) 50000 19.60 (+0.91)          Scream 7 aka Scream VII (SCRM7) 149999 39.86 (+0.44)          Scream 7 aka Scream VII (SCRM7) 149997 39.86 (+0.44)          Jermaine Fowler (JFOWL) 25000 11.84 (+0.10)          Nicolas Cage (NCAGE) 25000 7.75 (-0.19)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 116556 120.63 (-0.86)          Sharlto Copley (SCOPL) 25000 12.50 (+0.11)          Civil War (CVLWR) 150000 61.29 (+0.47)          The Fall Guy H$50 Call (FALGY.CA) 5000 1.52 (-0.15)          The Fall Guy (FALGY) 25000 120.63 (-0.86)