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200+OW in play? {nm}

Posted by: gogreenytd on Mar 17, 08:56 in response to RogerMore's post DL: $16.3M for BTATB previews

DL: $16.3M for BTATB previews RogerMore Mar 17, 08:33

BELCO - $306K {nm} FabioParme Mar 17, 08:40

BOM uses other BH Tilt for comps Green Inferno 275K, 3.5 million. The Darkness 206, 4.95 million. notfabio Mar 17, 08:52

The female/male skew was far closer than Cinderella/Twilight/Fifty Shades with "around 60% female" {nm} notfabio Mar 17, 08:44

Cinderella started at 77% for "Friday" and evened out to 66% female for the weekend. {nm} notfabio Mar 17, 08:45

Hunger Games appears to be the closest comparison, that crowd was 61% female. Hunger Games was 19.7 (I think maybe just midnights?) {nm} notfabio Mar 17, 08:47

“It’s playing like Star Wars among female audiences.” {nm} slipping jimmy Mar 17, 08:59

So are we going to watch DL low ball us and build the estimate all weekend. Tale as old as time. {nm} 🐨 Mar 17, 08:49

It's not DL doing the low-balling, it's the studio people they get their info from. {nm} RogerMore Mar 17, 08:57

I don't think that's true. If the trades were getting numbers from the studio, why are all the Friday afternoon #s different? Captain Hindsight Mar 17, 09:00

The PM #s from DL, V and THR are really not that different. There are multiple studios, so they may merge their estimates. {nm} Antibody Mar 17, 09:05

DL even tells us if a number came from a rival, which means it came from the releasing studio when DL doesn't tell us. {nm} Antibody Mar 17, 09:07

They all have their different sources which tell them basically the same thing, though not exactly the same thing. RogerMore Mar 17, 09:27

I'm not trying to break the board by putting a really long response without really saying anything of importance but... Captain Hindsight Mar 17, 10:10

200+OW in play? gogreenytd Mar 17, 08:56

12.27x to get there. Not the most likely outcome, certainly, but not impossible either. {nm} shadowking Mar 17, 09:10

NEMO2 delisted with a 3.13 multiplier. If BTATB has anywhere near the same legs with these OW predictions, it still has tremendous value tomcat90 Mar 17, 09:30

Seems too close to call right now... 12X mult would be 195... but sub-10X and it's right on target. Captain Hindsight Mar 17, 08:57

Yeah, there are valid arguements to be made for 10x as well as 12x. Split the middle and it's a $180M weekend shadowking Mar 17, 09:08





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Arcadian (ARCAD) 149999 1.96 (-0.01)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 79999 1.19 (-0.01)          Downtown Owl (DTOWL) 149999 2.35 (0.00)          One Life (1LIFE) 149999 4.75 (-0.04)          Immaculate (IMACU) 99999 14.06 (-0.03)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)          Here (HERE1) 26019 43.76 (-0.02)          The Monkey (MONKY) 150000 21.65 (-0.07)          The Monkey (MONKY) 150000 21.65 (-0.07)          Final Destination 6: Bloodlines (FDES6) 150000 17.02 (-0.11)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.43 (-0.57)          Wonder Woman 3 (WOND3) 150000 24.68 (+0.06)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 47095 10.29 (+0.33)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.43 (-0.57)          The Monkey (MONKY) 97815 21.65 (-0.07)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 1 19.43 (-0.57)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 1 19.43 (-0.57)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.43 (-0.57)          I am Legend 2 (LEGN2) 150000 62.33 (-0.20)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.43 (-0.57)          Weekend in Taipei (WKNTP) 25 14.28 (-0.20)          Y2K (Y2K) 1000 6.36 (+0.02)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 1000 21.60 (+0.11)          NBC: Extended Family (EXTFAM) 1000 13.23 (0.00)          Sandra Huller (SHULL) 1000 2.97 (0.00)          Save the Green Planet (STGPL) 100 19.28 (-0.18)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 149999 10.29 (+0.33)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 149999 19.43 (-0.57)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150 19.43 (-0.57)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 47095 10.29 (+0.33)          Spider-Man Untitled (SPID9) 150000 309.55 (-1.00)          Spider-Man Untitled (SPID9) 150000 309.55 (-1.00)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 150000 242.58 (-0.08)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 150000 242.58 (-0.08)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.43 (-0.57)          Hit Man (HTMAN) 150000 2.28 (+0.04)          Mothers' Instinct (MSTNC) 150000 3.01 (+0.02)          Ray Gunn (RAYGN) 150000 18.24 (+0.06)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)          Babes (BABS) 1 1.36 (0.00)          Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (KONG2) 788 155.53 (+1.70)          Nicholas Hoult (NHOUL) 200 29.13 (0.00)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 150000 19.43 (-0.57)          Kinds of Kindness (AND) 150000 18.24 (+0.78)          Civil War - Opening Weekend (CVLWR.OW) 100000 21.60 (+0.11)          Little Shop of Horrors (LSOFH) 150000 6.41 (+0.51)