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Whisper Numbers: Four newcomers vie for fourth place.

Hollywood sends four new wide releases to the plate this weekend. However, none are likely to contend for first place at the box office, which will be fought over by three holdover films. Although Dolphin Tale [DLPHN] finished third in its opening weekend, the family film has a chance to ascend to the top spot. The inspiration story has earned excellent word of mouth. Without any new competition for the family audience, Dolphin Tale may only decline around 30% to $13.5 million, which could be enough to prevail in a tight race.

The sports drama Moneyball [MONYB] has garnered great word of mouth as well, and could also move up from its second place finish last week. Baseball fans may opt to stay home and watch the playoffs though, so Moneyball could drop about 35% to $13 million.

With moviegoers still eager to check out The Lion King 3D [TLK3D], the animated re-release looks to collect another $13 million before the Blu-ray arrives on Tuesday.

Cancer movies are usually a bummer at the box office but the dramedy 50/50 [5050] hopes to beat the odds. Joseph Gordon-Levitt [JGORD] plays a young cancer patient while Seth Rogen [SROGE] co-star as his friend who helps him deal with the disease. The likeable cast and favorable reviews should appeal to the hipster target audience. Playing in 2458 theaters, the R-rated 50/50 could score $10 million.

Anna Faris [AFARI] is going through his exes to see if she missed ‘The One’ in the romantic comedy What’s Your Number? [WYNUM]. Chris Evans [CEVAN] coming off Captain America co-stars as a neighbor, who undoubtable will tuern out to be ‘The One’. Ads have been funny and should bring out those looking for R-rated laughs. Dialing into 3002 theaters, What’s Your Number? may ring up $9 million.

The PG-13 rated horror film Dream House [DRMHS] boasts a star-studded cast of Daniel Craig [DCRAI], Rachel Weisz [RWEIS] and Naomi Watts [NWATT]. Unfortunately, the film has been delayed for over a year for reshoots and the final product is not being screened for critics. Instead, Universal hopes to draw an audience by seemingly giving away the movie’s every twist and turn. Shown at 2660 locations, Dream House could sell for $8.5 million.

The faith-based drama Courageous [COURG] follows policemen who turned to religion to overcome a tragedy. Director Alex Kendrick’s previous Christian film Fireproof opened to $6.8 million in 2008. With a built-in audience coming in groups, Courageous could gather $8 million from 1161 theaters. As the only new film with an existing fanbase, Courageous has the best chance to breakout and could even fare the best amongst the new releases.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): DLPHN, MONYB, TLK3D, 5050, JGORD, SROGE, AFARI, WYNUM, CEVAN, DRMHS, DCRAI, RWEIS, NWATT, COURG

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, September 29, 2011 @ 04:28 PM 8952 views

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Union County (UNINC) 149997 1.26 (-0.11)          The Blair Witch Project 4 (TBWP4) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          The Goonies 2 (GONI2) 10000 55.46 (-0.06)          Union County (UNINC) 149997 1.26 (-0.11)          Longlegs 2 (LNLE2) 150000 48.91 (+8.91)          Hot Wheels (HOTWH) 10000 19.36 (+0.06)          Longlegs 2 (LNLE2) 150000 48.91 (+8.91)          The Jetsons (JETSN) 5000 55.50 (+2.00)          Leo Woodall (LWOOD) 25000 6.11 (-0.05)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3) 150000 176.58 (-5.22)          James Cameron (JCAME) 25000 118.49 (-0.33)          Untitled Kyoto Project (KYOTO) 10000 9.91 (-0.01)          I am Legend 2 (LEGN2) 10000 34.95 (-0.12)          The Last Photograph (LPHOT) 10000 1.47 (-0.02)          Monitor (MONTR) 10000 8.28 (-0.03)          Metal Gear Solid (MTLGR) 10000 15.17 (-0.02)          Metal Gear Solid (MTLGR) 10000 15.17 (-0.02)          Nomad (NOMD1) 5000 1.03 (0.00)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3) 50000 176.58 (-5.22)          Octet (OCTET) 10000 21.65 (-0.09)          Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 10000 15.94 (-0.05)          Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 10000 15.94 (-0.05)          Daveed Diggs (DDIGG) 10000 85.57 (+0.35)          Gold Mountain (OGMTN) 10000 15.94 (-0.05)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 10000 2.39 (0.00)          Peaked (PEAKD) 10000 14.07 (-0.04)          Peaked (PEAKD) 10000 14.07 (-0.04)          The Secret Life of Pets 3 (PETS3) 1000 98.60 (+1.45)          Rose (ROSE) 5000 1.51 (0.00)          Saw XI aka Saw 11 (SAW11) 10000 21.48 (-0.15)          Sender (SENDR) 10000 7.56 (-0.04)          Sleeping Dogs (SLPDG) 10000 7.27 (0.00)          Sleeping Dogs (SLPDG) 10000 7.27 (0.00)          Longlegs 2 (LNLE2) 20000 48.91 (+8.91)          Addison Rae (ARAE) 25000 29.72 (0.00)          A Visit to Grandpa’s (AVTGP) 150000 3.51 (+0.28)          The Mongoose (MNGOS) 150000 2.29 (+0.11)          Mila Kunis (MKUNI) 14000 35.20 (+0.07)          Crawlers (CRWLR) 150000 1.56 (-0.12)          Disclosure Day H$45 Call (SKIES.CA) 25000 4.38 (+0.21)          I Love Boosters (ILBOS) 150000 8.73 (+0.14)          Beach Read (BCHRD) 20000 24.72 (+0.65)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3) 150000 176.58 (-5.22)          Custom of the Country (TCOTC) 10000 9.96 (-0.04)          Thumb (THUM) 10000 4.34 (0.00)          Patrick Stewart (PSTEW) 25000 50.88 (-0.83)          Vegas: A Love Story (VALVS) 10000 8.87 (+0.05)          The Devil Wears Prada 2 $200M Bl (PRAD2.BW) 25000 9.60 (+0.29)          Iman Vellani (IVELL) 25000 32.16 (-0.01)          When Darkness Loves Us (WDLUS) 10000 7.25 (0.00)