SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Brave aims for another Pixar hit

The official first weekend of summer comes with three new wide releases lead by Disney’s animated Brave [BRAVE].  Featuring the first female lead character in Pixar’s 13 film history, the PG-rated Brave is about a redheaded princess who prefers archery over corsets, but not much else is clear about the story set in ancient Scotland.  However, the Pixar brand itself is strong enough to attract audiences of all demographics. Even the subpar sequel Cars 2 debuted with $66 million last year.  Their last non-sequel Up banked a $68 million opening in 2009. one would have to go back to 2007’s Ratatouille for an underperformer at $47 million. Shooting into 4165 theaters, Brave may conquer $63 million.

The historical fantasy Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter [ALVH] surmises that our 16th President secretly slayed bloodsuckers during the Civil War. Although the R-rated film is based on a best-selling novel, recent genre mash-ups like Cowboys and Aliens and Jonah Hex have failed to find a broad audience. With no big stars in its cast, Fox’s main marketing point has been the 3D action from the director of Wanted, Timur Bekmambetov [TBEKM]. With a lack of options for young male moviegoers, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter could attract enough wallets to score $21 million from 3106 theaters.

Even with direct competition from Brave, Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted [MADG3] could still finish second if Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter falters. Madagascar 3 looks to collect another $19 million.

In its third week of release Prometheus [PROME] should finish fourth with another $10 million. Older female moviegoers should keep the musical Rock of Ages [ROAGE] from falling more than 50% to about $8 million. Unfortunately, nothing will stop the R-rated comedy That’s My Boy [TMBOY] from dropping more than 50% to $6 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE] and Keira Knightley [KKNIG] play an unlikely couple in the R-rated romantic comedy Seeking a Friend for the End of the World [SAFEW]. In order to attract its target audience of sophisticated adults, the unconventional film needs favorable reviews. Unfortunately, the buzz have mostly been negative. Arriving in 1618 theaters, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World may find just $6.5 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): BRAVE, ALVH, TBEKM, MADG3, PROME, ROAGE, TMBOY, SCARE, KKNIG, SAFEW

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 21, 2012 @ 04:03 PM 15825 views

Recent Comments

    No recent comments.


Ads disabled on hsx.com
Ads disabled on hsx.com


Speed the Plow (SPLOW) 150000 3.15 (+0.04)          Octet (OCTET) 71211 20.04 (+0.04)          Colony (CLONY) 150000 2.28 (+0.01)          Naruto (NARUT) 11000 17.53 (+0.11)          Drummer Boy (DRUMB) 75000 10.02 (+0.09)          Peter Asher: Everywhere Man (PAEWM) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Octet (OCTET) 150000 20.04 (+0.04)          Pendulum (PNDLM) 75000 6.68 (-0.39)          Buddy (BUDDY) 75000 6.78 (+0.40)          Driver's Ed (DRVED) 95000 2.68 (+0.06)          Fonda (FONDA) 75000 8.65 (+0.56)          White Elephant (WELEP) 75000 17.41 (+0.73)          Oceans (OCEN5) 111 47.40 (0.00)          Chloe Coleman (CCOLE) 25000 83.30 (0.00)          Owen Teague (OTEAG) 25000 34.57 (0.00)          Octet (OCTET) 150000 20.04 (+0.04)          The Only Living Pickpocket in Ne (OLPNY) 5505 2.52 (0.00)          Wonder Woman (WOND3) 5000 50.31 (0.00)          Planet of the Apes sequel (APES5) 10000 53.55 (-0.01)          Octet (OCTET) 20000 20.04 (+0.04)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 6.78 (+0.40)          Octet (OCTET) 150000 20.04 (+0.04)          Octet (OCTET) 10000 20.04 (+0.04)          Jack Ryan: Ghost War (RYAN1) 50000 8.14 (+0.07)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 150000 5.07 (-0.25)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 150000 5.07 (-0.25)          Obsession - Opening Weekend (OBSSN.OW) 50000 6.13 (-0.08)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 150000 5.07 (-0.25)          Obsession - Opening Weekend (OBSSN.OW) 50000 6.13 (-0.08)          Obsession - Opening Weekend (OBSSN.OW) 50000 6.13 (-0.08)          (Saint) Peter (STPET) 150000 5.32 (+0.35)          Obsession - Opening Weekend (OBSSN.OW) 50000 6.13 (-0.08)          (Saint) Peter (STPET) 150000 5.32 (+0.35)          Fing! (FING) 150000 5.12 (-0.37)          Fing! (FING) 150000 5.12 (-0.37)          In the Grey - Opening Weekend (NGREY.OW) 50000 4.19 (-0.08)          In the Grey - Opening Weekend (NGREY.OW) 50000 4.19 (-0.08)          Pendulum (PNDLM) 150000 6.68 (-0.39)          In the Grey - Opening Weekend (NGREY.OW) 50000 4.19 (-0.08)          Pendulum (PNDLM) 150000 6.68 (-0.39)          In the Grey - Opening Weekend (NGREY.OW) 50000 4.19 (-0.08)          Octet (OCTET) 150000 20.04 (+0.04)          Fonda (FONDA) 150000 8.65 (+0.56)          Fonda (FONDA) 150000 8.65 (+0.56)          4 Kids Walk Into a Bank (4KWIB) 3 6.88 (0.00)          White Elephant (WELEP) 150000 17.41 (+0.73)          4 Kids Walk Into a Bank (4KWIB) 3 6.88 (0.00)          White Elephant (WELEP) 150000 17.41 (+0.73)          Watch Dogs (WTDOG) 2 9.21 (0.00)          Watch Dogs (WTDOG) 2 9.21 (0.00)