Even after the biggest Thanksgiving weekend ever at the box office, the post-holiday frame is headed for a big letdown. Two new films will open in wide release but are unlikely to break into the top five held by the leftovers. After giving up the crown for two week, James Bond could find himself back in first place. If Skyfall [JB23] holds a bit better than 50% from last weekend, then $18 million could be enough to lead the weekend box office.
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 [TWLI5] has been just as frontloaded as all its predecessors. A similar 60% drop in the weekend after Thanksgiving would bring in $17.5 million.
DreamWork Animation's The Rise of Guardians [GURDN] bombed in its debut over Thanksgiving, but the family-targeted film should hold at least 60% at around $14 million. Fellow sophomore release Life of Pi [LIFPI] should also hold simliarly well based on favorable word of mouth and net about $13.5 million.
After experiencing a positive increase over to the holiday weekend, Lincoln [ABE] is unlikely to escape the post-Thanksgiving fate. The biopic looks to score $13 million.
Brad Pitt [BPITT] leads the R-rated crime drama Killing Them Softly [KILTS]. The Weinstein Co. originally scheduled the film to open a month ago ahead of the holiday rush season, before opting to dump it into this dead weekend. Even with Pitt’s starpower, the film looks to get lost in a marketplace crowded with awards contenders competing for the same adult audience. Targeting 2424 theaters, Killing Them Softly may hit $10 million.
LD Entertainment counter-programs the weekend with its first wide release, The Collection [COLC2], the horror sequel to 2009’s The Collector. The original film was distributed by FreeStyle and debuted at $3.6 million from 1325 theaters. Appealing only to hardcore horror fans, The Collection may gather $3 million from 1700 theaters.
That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor
Tag(s): JB23, TWLI5, GURDN, LIFPI, ABE, BPITT, KILTS, COLC2