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Whisper Numbers: How high will Iron Man 3 fly?

Marvel once again kicks off the summer blockbuster movie season with Iron Man 3 [IRNM3] the third solo outing for the armored superhero played by Robert Downey Jr. [RDOWN]. Although the film is technically a sequel to 2010’s Iron Man 2, the story in Iron Man 3 follows the events of last year’s The Avengers, where Iron Man last made his appearance alongside Thor, Captain America and Hulk. As we all know, The Avengers set the all-time opening weekend record at $207.4 million and was beloved by moviegoers. That exceptional goodwill should overcome the underwhelming after-taste of Iron Man 2, which debuted to $128.1 million three years ago this weekend.

While Iron Man 2 played like a set up for The Avengers, the focus of Iron Man 3 is back squarely on Tony Stark. Gwyneth Paltrow [GPALT] is back as his love interest Pepper Potts while, his most famous comic foe The Mandarin, played by Ben Kingsley [BKING], finally makes his appearance. Shane Black takes over as director from Jon Favreau, and reviews so far have been overwhelmingly positive. Disney opened the PG-13 rated film first overseas, and the favorable reception has helped to fuel the buzz. The third Batman film The Dark Knight Rises debuted at $160.9 million without the benefit of 3D, though the theater shooting had a small effect. Blasting into 4235 theaters, Iron Man 3 should reach upwards of at least $160 million.

Despite a number one opening, Pain & Gain [PAING] was not well-received even by its older male target audience. The action comedy may lose 55% in its second session to $9 million. Facing competition in its third week of release, Oblivion [OBLVN] looks to drop 55% to $8 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): IRNM3, RDOWN, GPALT, BKING, PAING, OBLVN

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 2, 2013 @ 03:44 PM 3063 views

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Molly Gordon (MGORD) 25000 26.13 (+1.13)          Peaked (PEAKD) 150000 7.70 (-0.30)          Trey Parker (TPARK) 1000 66.27 (+0.27)          Trey Parker (TPARK) 1000 66.27 (+0.27)          Marisa Abela (MABEL) 3000 9.48 (0.00)          Houdini (TSLOH) 150000 0.03 (+0.01)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 1 15.12 (-1.08)          Marisa Abela (MABEL) 2000 9.48 (0.00)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 150000 72.00 (-1.44)          Nicholas Galitzine (NGALI) 3000 8.48 (-0.06)          Nicholas Galitzine (NGALI) 2000 8.48 (-0.06)          Houdini (TSLOH) 150000 0.03 (+0.01)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 150000 60.62 (-2.60)          The Invite (TINVT) 50000 10.50 (-0.36)          Artificial (AIFIC) 30000 22.47 (-0.08)          David H$25 Put (DAVID.PU) 25000 2.88 (+0.14)          The Invite (TINVT) 2000 10.50 (-0.36)          David H$25 Call (DAVID.CA) 25000 1.14 (-0.26)          The Invite (TINVT) 2000 10.50 (-0.36)          Artificial (AIFIC) 33334 22.47 (-0.08)          Whalefall (WHALF) 1000 28.75 (-0.06)          David - Opening Weekend (DAVID.OW) 100000 24.52 (-0.84)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 3.87 (+0.58)          Whalefall (WHALF) 1000 28.75 (-0.06)          EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (EPICC) 2000 13.30 (-0.53)          Barbarella (BARBA) 1000 30.04 (-0.05)          EPiC: Elvis Presley in Concert (EPICC) 2000 13.30 (-0.53)          Barbarella (BARBA) 1000 30.04 (-0.05)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 2.72 (-0.58)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 117.75 (-4.08)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 3000 5.00 (0.00)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 3000 10.00 (0.00)          Molly Gordon (MGORD) 1000 26.13 (+1.13)          Peaked (PEAKD) 3000 7.70 (-0.30)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 1000 41.40 (-5.72)          Jack Ryan (RYAN1) 8000 28.13 (-0.13)          The Housemaid H$20 Call (HMAID.CA) 25000 2.96 (-0.53)          The Housemaid H$20 Call (HMAID.CA) 25000 2.96 (-0.53)          Avatar: Fire and Ash (AVAT3) 150000 447.50 (-1.19)          Heat 2 (HEAT2) 28520 50.14 (0.00)          The Housemaid - Opening Weekend (HMAID.OW) 100000 23.43 (-1.11)          The Housemaid - Opening Weekend (HMAID.OW) 100000 23.43 (-1.11)          The Bride! (BRIDE) 10100 54.44 (-0.18)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 150000 15.12 (-1.08)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Face/Off 2 (FCOF2) 60000 8.18 (-0.04)          Peaked (PEAKD) 150000 7.70 (-0.30)          Reminders of Him (RMNDH) 150000 21.08 (-0.10)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 75000 9.84 (-0.02)