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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 3735 views

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Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 150000 16.49 (-0.06)          Captain America: Brave New World (CAPA4) 50000 199.29 (-0.39)          Snow White (SNWHT) 25000 199.71 (-0.61)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 20000 201.17 (+1.17)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.17 (+1.17)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 77251 204.04 (-11.89)          The Super Mario Bros. Movie 2 (MARI2) 150000 379.75 (-0.51)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 27392 204.04 (-11.89)          Spellbound (SPLBN) 150000 0.07 (-0.01)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 45357 204.04 (-11.89)          Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & (FFHS2) 150000 30.96 (+0.20)          The Incredible Hulk vs. Wolverin (THLK2) 149999 55.56 (-0.49)          Blade (BLAD1) 149999 77.48 (-0.68)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 149999 43.73 (-0.59)          The Literary Fund (BOOKS) 20000 77.65 (+0.28)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.17 (+1.17)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 21.75 (+0.04)          Superman (SUPRM) 150000 240.24 (-2.00)          Dune: Messiah aka Dune: Part Thr (DUNE3) 150000 182.39 (-0.03)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 150000 147.83 (+1.12)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 150000 204.41 (+1.82)          Idris Elba (IELBA) 20000 91.20 (+0.55)          Insidious 6 (NSID6) 150000 32.87 (-0.22)          Batgirl (BATGR) 100000 2.18 (-0.02)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.17 (+1.17)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.17 (+1.17)          Untitled Trey Parker (UVCHA) 150000 38.14 (-0.04)          Insidious 6 (NSID6) 150000 32.87 (-0.22)          How to Train Your Dragon (HTTYD) 150000 194.15 (+0.99)          Vicious (VICUS) 150000 19.42 (-1.80)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 150000 34.85 (-1.89)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 149999 34.85 (-1.89)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.17 (+1.17)          Vicious (VICUS) 150000 19.42 (-1.80)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 150000 223.55 (-5.01)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 1 204.04 (-11.89)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 20238 201.17 (+1.17)          Lunik Heist (LUNIK) 150000 17.58 (-0.42)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 1 204.04 (-11.89)          The Lord of the Rings: The War o (LOTR4) 150000 19.06 (-0.49)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 150000 125.09 (-7.03)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 13 201.17 (+1.17)          The Lord of the Rings: The War o (LOTR4) 150000 19.06 (-0.49)          Street Fighter (STFTR) 150000 42.98 (-0.29)          Marty Supreme (MRTSU) 150000 18.95 (-0.33)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.17 (+1.17)          Return to Silent Hill (SHIL3) 149999 9.15 (+2.06)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 150000 34.85 (-1.89)          The Unbreakable Boy (UNBOY) 1 8.36 (-1.71)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 129749 201.17 (+1.17)