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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 3725 views

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Peter Dinklage (PDINK) 25000 95.27 (+0.50)          Peter Dinklage (PDINK) 25000 95.27 (+0.50)          Moana (MOAN1) 150000 170.44 (+0.33)          Jonathan Bailey (JBAIL) 25000 75.12 (+0.25)          Jeff Goldblum (JGOLD) 25000 86.10 (+0.50)          Jeff Goldblum (JGOLD) 25000 86.10 (+0.50)          Nobody 2 (NOBO2) 150000 30.36 (+0.60)          Cynthia Erivo (CERIV) 25000 38.12 (+0.12)          Bowen Yang (BYANG) 25000 51.60 (+0.26)          Ariana Grande (AGRAN) 25000 87.99 (+0.25)          Jon M. Chu (JCHU) 25000 90.94 (+0.25)          The Hand That Rocks the Cradle (HTRTC) 50000 24.45 (+0.33)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 11.45 (-0.55)          Flow (FLOW) 1 2.33 (0.00)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 11.45 (-0.55)          Famous (FAMOS) 150000 21.44 (-0.49)          Famous (FAMOS) 150000 21.44 (-0.49)          Late Fame (LTFAM) 100000 3.58 (-0.02)          Switzerland (SWITZ) 150000 2.54 (+0.01)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 11.45 (-0.55)          Kanguva (KNGUV) 150000 2.74 (+0.02)          Untitled Lee Cronin Project (ULCRO) 25000 36.90 (+0.01)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 150000 18.93 (-0.47)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 150000 18.93 (-0.47)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFCN) 2500 117.19 (+0.27)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 19.99 (0.00)          Drop (DROP) 8 26.35 (+0.20)          Flight Risk (FLTRS) 100 30.00 (+0.85)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 19.99 (0.00)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 19.99 (0.00)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFCN) 1500 117.19 (+0.27)          Wicked (WICKD) 100 288.49 (+0.50)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 900 196.47 (-0.33)          Ruben Fleischer (RFLEI) 3 105.70 (-0.33)          Ruben Fleischer (RFLEI) 3 105.70 (-0.33)          Sebastian Stan (SSTAN) 3 9.44 (0.00)          Sebastian Stan (SSTAN) 3 9.44 (0.00)          Jon Favreau (JFAVR) 3 251.04 (0.00)          Jon Favreau (JFAVR) 3 251.04 (0.00)          Michael Keaton (MKEAT) 3 99.38 (0.00)          Michael Keaton (MKEAT) 3 99.38 (0.00)          Mackenzie Foy (MFOY) 3 77.10 (0.00)          Mackenzie Foy (MFOY) 3 77.10 (0.00)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 150000 7.97 (-0.03)          Relay (RELAY) 75000 3.48 (-0.01)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 74999 18.93 (-0.47)          Toby Jones (TOJON) 3 33.51 (0.00)          Toby Jones (TOJON) 3 33.51 (0.00)          Sadie Sink (SSINK) 3 10.38 (0.00)          Sadie Sink (SSINK) 3 10.38 (0.00)