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Whisper Numbers: Is Avatar about to change the course of movies?

Twelve years after directing his last feature film Titanic, the self-proclaimed ‘King of the World’ James Cameron [JCAME] is back to reclaim his throne with the sci-fi adventure Avatar [AVATR].  Using state-of-the-art 3D and performance capture technology, Cameron has created a world that seamlessly merged live-action with CG animation.   Although the trailers were initially met with skepticism, the finished film has garnered overwhelming positive, glowing reviews.  The film that set out to be an industry “game changer” has actually met the lofty expectation.  Fox marketing has been in overdrive positioning the $400 million movie as a must-experience 3D event. The buzz will only grow as the first midnight screenings let out.  I Am Legend’s December record of $77.2 million may be at risk.  The higher 3D ticket prices should compensate for the longer 160 minutes running time.  Descending upon 3453 theaters, Avatar could blow away $80 million.

Disney’s G-rated animated musical The Princess and the Frog [FROGP] should display long legs at the box office with the upcoming school break for the holidays.   A decay around 25% would give The Princess and the Frog $18 million and second place.

Sarah Jessica Parker [SJPAR] and Hugh Grant [HGRAN] pair up for the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? [MRGNS].   The film’s target demographic may be more interesting in shopping on the last weekend before Christmas than checking out yet another story about city slickers in the boondocks discovering themselves.  Opening in 2718 theaters, the Morgans may settle down with roughly $11 million.

Despite the A-list talent involved with Invictus [INVIC], American moviegoers were apparently not too interested in South African politics or the sport of Rugby.   The film’s older target audience may be waiting on reviews, which are generally favorable. In its sophomore frame, Invictus may decline around 30% to $6 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): JCAME, AVATR, FROGP, SJPAR, HGRAN, MRGNS, INVIC

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 17, 2009 @ 04:08 PM 4022 views

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Supergirl (SUPGR) 100000 147.68 (-1.10)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 150000 121.08 (+0.81)          The Mummy 4 (MUMY5) 102 101.82 (+0.45)          The Odyssey (ODYSE) 150000 267.78 (+0.22)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 150000 358.53 (+3.82)          O Horizon (OHORZ) 150000 0.40 (-0.09)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 150000 415.37 (+0.02)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 1 121.08 (+0.81)          Aaron Sorkin (ASORK) 25000 14.39 (+0.20)          Grandgear (GGEAR) 150000 49.69 (+0.25)          Focker In-Law (MPRN4) 1000 121.08 (+0.81)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 117 84.61 (+2.33)          Obsession (OBSSN) 150000 108.72 (+13.24)          Longlegs 2 (LNLE2) 115163 48.83 (+8.83)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 1000 322.96 (-1.77)          The Nightingale (NITNG) 42179 5.76 (+0.01)          Primetime (PRMTM) 10 22.80 (+3.73)          A Visit to Grandpa’s (AVTGP) 150000 3.48 (+0.25)          Godzilla x Kong: Supernova (GOKO3) 1 157.45 (-0.22)          Backrooms (BACRM) 149999 132.05 (+11.83)          The Breadwinner (BREDW) 150000 19.09 (-1.74)          Michael 2 (MJAC2) 1000 174.95 (+0.94)          The Nightingale (NITNG) 107821 5.76 (+0.01)          Longlegs 2 (LNLE2) 150000 48.83 (+8.83)          Longlegs 2 (LNLE2) 150000 48.83 (+8.83)          Planet of the Apes sequel (APES5) 1000 48.75 (-1.10)          Pressure (PRSUR) 2000 13.36 (-1.67)          The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the (HGAM6) 2999 181.24 (-0.07)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 5000 315.24 (-2.37)          Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity (GDCSP) 149999 9.46 (+0.13)          The Beast (TBEAS) 150000 7.11 (+0.91)          The Beast (TBEAS) 150000 7.11 (+0.91)          Obsession (OBSSN) 3684 108.72 (+13.24)          Pressure (PRSUR) 2000 13.36 (-1.67)          The Breadwinner (BREDW) 150000 19.09 (-1.74)          The Breadwinner (BREDW) 150000 19.09 (-1.74)          Resident Evil (RESE8) 1 59.99 (+0.01)          The Blair Witch Project 4 (TBWP4) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Octet (OCTET) 150000 21.70 (-0.04)          Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity (GDCSP) 1 9.46 (+0.13)          Gail Daughtry and the Celebrity (GDCSP) 1 9.46 (+0.13)          Fonda (FONDA) 1 9.66 (+0.04)          The Super Mario Galaxy Movie $39 (MARI2.BW) 5446 18.59 (+0.28)          The African-American Fund (AFRAM) 5144 55.72 (+0.17)          42.6 Years (426YR) 150000 9.08 (-0.04)          Tuner (TUNER) 150000 3.92 (+0.33)          Tuner (TUNER) 150000 3.92 (+0.33)          The Sheep Detectives (3BAGF) 150000 54.08 (-0.82)          Tommy Karate (TKART) 149999 12.74 (-0.10)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 149034 84.61 (+2.33)