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Whisper Numbers: Will Iron Man 2 beat The Dark Knight?

The 2010 summer movie season blasts off with the return of a Marvel Comic superhero in Iron Man 2 [IRNM2].  Robert Downey Jr. [RDOWN] returns as the man in the iron suit, Tony Stark, along with Gwenyth Paltrow [GPALT] as Pepper Potts. Don Cheadle [DCHEA] takes over the role of James Rhodes, who suits up as War Machine. Also joining the cast are Mickey Rourke [MROUR], Sam Rockwell [SROCK] and Scarlett Johansson [SJOHA].  The first Iron Man opened at $102 million and was universally loved by audiences. With tremendous goodwill built up, the sequel will have more moviegoers feel the must-see urge opening weekend.  Trackings indicate the record $158 million debut set by The Dark Knight is within striking distance.  Iron Man 2 has already taken one record from The Dark Knight as the widest release ever at 4380 theaters.  Unlike The Dark Knight however, Iron Man 2 reviews are not as stellar as its predecessor.  Fortunately, the fan favorite is review-proof opening weekend.  With not even a romantic comedy counter-programmed as competition, Iron Man 2 has an open field to punch out $160 million. 

A Nightmare on Elm Street [NELMS] was heavily front-loaded on the Friday of its opening weekend.  The Friday the 13th reboot plummeted 80% in its second weekend last year.  A Nightmare on Elm Street could tumble more than 65% to $11 million.

How to Train Your Dragon looks to cross the $200 million mark with another $6 million in its 7th weekend of release.

Focus Features is opening the documentary Babies [BABIS] in 534 theaters to take advantage of Mother’s Day.  Babies could crack the top ten with around $3 million. 

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): IRNM2, RDOWN, GPALT, DCHEA, MROUR, SROCK, SJOHA, NELMS, BABIS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, May 6, 2010 @ 04:04 PM 4160 views

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The Bride! (BRIDE) 4000 54.44 (-0.18)          The Housemaid - Opening Weekend (HMAID.OW) 100000 23.23 (-1.31)          The Housemaid - Opening Weekend (HMAID.OW) 100000 23.23 (-1.31)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 0.48 (-0.30)          Wicked: For Good $315M Blockbust (WCKD2.BW) 25000 7.02 (+0.55)          Miles Teller (MTELL) 24444 65.57 (-1.28)          Doctor Strange 3 (DRST3) 15681 100.07 (+0.70)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 117.74 (-4.09)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 4.96 (+0.53)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 0.48 (-0.30)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.55 (-0.99)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          Dust Bunny (DUSTB) 150000 2.58 (-0.14)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Put (AVAT3.PU) 25000 3.87 (+0.58)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 2.72 (-0.58)          Avatar: Fire and Ash H$125 Call (AVAT3.CA) 25000 2.72 (-0.58)          Jump Street: Now For Her Pleasur (21JS3) 150000 0.08 (-0.01)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 117.74 (-4.09)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 100000 117.74 (-4.09)          Logan's Run (LOGAN) 50000 4.23 (-0.05)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 5000 117.74 (-4.09)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.55 (-0.99)          Avatar: Fire and Ash - Opening W (AVAT3.OW) 10000 117.74 (-4.09)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.CA) 25000 0.48 (-0.30)          Scarface (SCARF) 1 0.30 (-0.03)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.OW) 100000 18.55 (-0.99)          The SpongeBob Movie: Search for (SPBO4.PU) 25000 4.96 (+0.53)          Split Fiction (SPFIC) 150000 41.55 (-5.57)          Love is Not the Answer (LINTA) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          A Great Aawkening (AGAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Scarface (SCARF) 150000 0.30 (-0.03)          Molly Gordon (MGORD) 25000 26.13 (+1.13)          Peaked (PEAKD) 150000 7.70 (-0.30)          Trey Parker (TPARK) 1000 66.27 (+0.27)          Trey Parker (TPARK) 1000 66.27 (+0.27)          Marisa Abela (MABEL) 3000 9.48 (0.00)          Houdini (TSLOH) 150000 0.03 (+0.01)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 1 15.12 (-1.08)          Marisa Abela (MABEL) 2000 9.48 (0.00)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 150000 72.00 (-1.44)          Nicholas Galitzine (NGALI) 3000 8.48 (-0.06)          Nicholas Galitzine (NGALI) 2000 8.48 (-0.06)          Houdini (TSLOH) 150000 0.03 (+0.01)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 150000 60.62 (-2.60)          The Invite (TINVT) 50000 10.50 (-0.36)          Artificial (AIFIC) 30000 22.47 (-0.08)          David H$25 Put (DAVID.PU) 25000 2.88 (+0.14)          The Invite (TINVT) 2000 10.50 (-0.36)          David H$25 Call (DAVID.CA) 25000 1.14 (-0.26)