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Whisper Numbers: The Twilight Saga set to Eclipse the box office.

Two new films with built-in audiences open mid-week as the box office head into the Independence Day holiday weekend.  The phenomenon The Twilight Saga returns with its third entry Eclipse [TWLI3].   The sequel has already set a new midnight record at $30+ million on its way to a first day total of $68.5 million, which also becomes a box office record for Wednesday.  There was no doubt the vampire vs. werewolf romance would be highly anticipated by “Twihards”.  The question now is whether Eclipse will turn out to be front-loaded.  Summit has given Eclipse the widest release ever at 4416 theaters.  Good word of mouth should drive additional business over the holiday weekend.  Team Edward and Team Jacob together are poised to haul in $95 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $185 million.

Even though Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] will give up the box office crown after two weeks, the Pixar animated sequel should remain the number one option for a broad segment of moviegoers.  The holiday weekend gives them a chance to check out the beloved characters for the last time on screen.  Toy Story 3 looks to bank another $40 million.

M. Night Shylamalan [MNSHY] has adapted the anime series “Avatar: The Last Airbender” into the live-action The Last Airbender [BENDR].  The PG-rated fantasy is riding in on a wave of bad publicity from casting White actors in Asian roles to the late conversion to 3D.  The film is likely to only appeal to families with young children as the terrible reviews may even turn off the hardcore fans.  Swooping into 3169 theaters, The Last Airbender could gather $32 million over the 4-day weekend for a 6-day total around $42 million.

Adam Sandler [ASAND] and gang have not grown up and moviegoers love them for it.  Grown Ups [GRWUP] should bring families together over the holiday weekend to display around $24 million worth of box office fireworks.

The mild opening of Knight and Day [KNDAY] demonstrated moviegoers are over Tom Cruise [TCRUI].  The action romance may settle for $12 million over the 4-day weekend.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TWLI3, TOYS3, MNSHY, BENDR, ASAND, GRWUP, KNDAY, TCRUI

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, July 1, 2010 @ 02:19 PM 3469 views

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b4bad
Friday, July 2 at 07:33 AM Pacific
Thursday estimates put it to $16M ... source : http://www.deadline.com/2010/07/thursday-box-office-eclipse-25m-the-last-airbender-16m-toy-story-3-8m/



Minions 3 (MNIO3) 24878 201.22 (+1.22)          Better Man (BETRM) 150000 19.97 (-0.17)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 150000 203.09 (-12.84)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.22 (+1.22)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 150000 203.09 (-12.84)          Freaky Tales (FRKYT) 150000 4.21 (+1.79)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 149999 16.49 (-0.06)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 149999 34.90 (-1.84)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 52240 223.54 (-5.02)          Freaky Tales (FRKYT) 149999 4.21 (+1.79)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.22 (+1.22)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 149999 125.09 (-7.03)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 150000 203.09 (-12.84)          One of Them Days (1OTDS) 149999 17.27 (-0.27)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 150000 25.18 (+0.56)          Hot Spot (HTSPT) 149999 4.24 (-0.51)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.22 (+1.22)          The Housemaid (HMAID) 149999 34.90 (-1.84)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 5000 201.22 (+1.22)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 44 46.37 (+4.90)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 10000 201.22 (+1.22)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 150000 203.09 (-12.84)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.22 (+1.22)          ABC: Shifting Gears (SHFTNG) 25000 11.00 (-0.15)          ABC: Shifting Gears (SHFTNG) 25000 11.00 (-0.15)          Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow (SUPGR) 96314 84.68 (+0.24)          Babygirl - Opening Weekend (BBGRL.OW) 16000 4.31 (+0.15)          Babygirl - Opening Weekend (BBGRL.OW) 78000 4.31 (+0.15)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 50000 201.22 (+1.22)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 50000 203.09 (-12.84)          28 Years Later: The Bone Temple (28LT4) 150000 69.78 (-0.16)          Supergirl: Woman of Tomorrow (SUPGR) 3686 84.68 (+0.24)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.22 (+1.22)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 83.13 (-0.44)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 29833 223.54 (-5.02)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 150000 203.09 (-12.84)          The Unbreakable Boy (UNBOY) 149001 8.31 (-1.76)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 43744 223.54 (-5.02)          Flight Risk (FLTRS) 32000 25.08 (-1.56)          Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 150000 14.32 (+0.35)          Flight Risk (FLTRS) 35000 25.08 (-1.56)          Elio (ELIO) 49999 135.96 (-0.46)          Snow White (SNWHT) 49999 199.54 (-0.78)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 7815 223.54 (-5.02)          Screamboat (SCMBT) 10000 4.80 (-0.19)          Hunters In The Dark (HNTRD) 10000 0.01 (-0.01)          Minions 3 (MNIO3) 150000 201.22 (+1.22)          Everest aka Mallory aka The Summ (SUMIT) 969 0.01 (0.00)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 150000 371.41 (-1.57)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 150000 371.41 (-1.57)