One is going to be a winner, and one is going to be a loser. [FDES4] is up today, while [H2] is down today, and down over the last few days, from a high of about H$61 to H$49 today. Look at the options, too. FDES4 options are doing slightly better than those for H2. For confirmation, check to see what happens tomorrow (Friday) morning. Any movement by H$2 or more either way will be a good indication of how it is going to adjust. If H2 suddenly jumps up H$5 Friday morning, go long. If it continues to slump, short. That's a good rule of thumb - pay attention to what happens Friday morning.