HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

I disagree, it IS 100% arbitrage....(Dorfman et al.)

Posted by: blinkuldhc on Aug 04, 21:25 in response to Dorfman's post yeah its not ARB unless its already made more money than...

...in that the trade sequence delivers 100% risk-free profit. If you purchase one share of Change-Up, purchase one put option of Change-Up, and short one call option of Change-Up, there is literally no opening weekend gross that would NOT return an overall profit. That is, if you define "arbitrage" as the practice of making a trade or trades that return(s) a risk-free profit. In this case, if you took all three positions as stated above, there is a completely risk-free expectation of profit. Even considering commission, there is NO OPENING WEEKEND GROSS that does NOT return a profit on the above trade sequence. Dorfman, if you can find ONE "price" (i.e., an opening weekend number) for Change-Up whereby I would lose money, please give me that price, and show your work =) Yeah, if Change-Up somehow impossibly and simultaneously opened below $19, above $26 AND between $22-$25 I would lose money, as your example suggests. But I can guarantee you 100% that I will make money on the above trade this weekend no matter what Change-Up opens at.





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