HSX Forum

Playing & Trading Strategy

Advice on Cap3 if you can spare the cash until delist

Posted by: MattW on May 06, 22:24

Short it now. Ā 

Age of Ultron delisted at H$411.37 (2.15*OW)

Winter Soldier would have delisted at about 2.42*OW if it had a 4-day weekend for it's 4th weekend like Ultron and Cap3.

Cap3 will open much smaller than ultron (175-180) so even with significantly better legs I don't think it'll delist above 435 (2.4*180)

Which gives you at least H$7 million in 26 days, that's H$270k per day.

Advice on Cap3 if you can spare the cash until delist MattW May 06, 22:24

i would be careffull with that strategy JMT-NL May 07, 00:17

Though CAPA2 was also a great action flick with a Cinemascore of A and an RT score of 88 (vs 91 for CAPA3) {nm} RogerMore May 07, 09:50

History is against you. The last super hero movie to open in May and delist above 2.7 was the 1st Avengers in 2012. Only 3 movies from Iron JDolphin May 07, 19:59

yup...even worse, I think the first Avengers, Iron Man and Thor were delist shorts as well...unless my math is wrong... tealfan May 08, 00:21

I think you're using final multipliers instead of delist multiplers. warcraft86 May 08, 08:56

Your right so the multipliers are worse. Sorry the data is from the Google Docs spreadsheet posted here earlier, I forgot it was final gross {nm} JDolphin May 08, 09:38

Considering it's probably going to go up another $70 with the adjust Sunday, that seems like a sure money-loser. Short it after the adjust. {nm} FranklynStreet May 07, 12:54

Where do you get 70 more from? that would be and OW over 200. {nm} JDolphin May 07, 16:51

Yes, Boxofficemojo was predicting it doing 210. {nm} FranklynStreet May 08, 10:41

That was back on Thurs. You posted Friday afternoon - big changes can happen to movies in that period. {nm} JDolphin May 08, 11:46

oops - you posted Sat. based on Thurs and Friday box office it wasn't going to do that anymore. {nm} JDolphin May 08, 11:49

only on HSX is the 5th best domestic opening considered "not awesome" {nm} john May 08, 11:53

Very similar daily path as Iron Man 3 after removing Thursday previews. I'll be surprised with a multiplier over 2.6 MattW May 09, 14:57

Weekend #2 coming in around 72m MattW May 14, 00:23

Comes out to 348k per day holding short from today to delist. {nm} MattW May 14, 00:24





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Beetlejuice Beetlejuice $250M Bl (BEET2.BW) 25000 16.29 (+0.01)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Weekend in Taipei (WKNTP) 15000 4.30 (0.00)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 33189 69.92 (+0.21)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 3485 280.18 (+1.78)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 63455 37.04 (-0.59)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 78864 10.00 (0.00)          Hugh Grant (HGRAN) 1 75.74 (+0.50)          NBC: Brilliant Minds (BRLNTM) 25000 13.87 (+0.21)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          NBC: Brilliant Minds (BRLNTM) 25000 13.87 (+0.21)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 1 10.00 (0.00)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 11.63 (-0.37)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 2 280.18 (+1.78)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Wicked (WICKD) 1 291.79 (+3.80)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFCN) 150000 118.17 (+1.25)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 20.07 (+0.08)          Venom: The Last Dance $130M Bloc (VENM3.BW) 25000 9.71 (-0.14)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 100000 37.04 (-0.59)          Isabella Rossellini (IROSS) 25000 7.23 (-0.05)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 35286 10.00 (0.00)          Shrek 5 (SHRK5) 10000 146.44 (-0.74)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 146.15 (-1.00)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 2000 438.41 (-0.28)          Chiwetel Ejiofor (CEJIO) 25000 146.15 (-1.00)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 50000 11.63 (-0.37)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 20000 10.00 (0.00)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 100000 10.00 (0.00)          Stanley Tucci (STUCC) 25000 17.34 (-0.20)          Triplets (TRPLT) 150000 0.02 (-0.01)          Cynthia Erivo (CERIV) 25000 38.12 (+0.12)          Joseph Quinn (JQUIN) 25000 75.88 (+0.75)          Fred Hechinger (FHECH) 25000 21.31 (+0.37)          Connie Nielsen (CNIEL) 25000 57.01 (+0.33)          Paul Mescal (PMESC) 25000 14.83 (+0.10)          Jurassic World Rebirth (JURA7) 506 296.36 (+1.25)          Wicked (WICKD) 150000 291.79 (+3.80)          Parthenope (PRTNP) 3 2.51 (+0.25)          Wicked (WICKD) 150000 291.79 (+3.80)          Parthenope (PRTNP) 1 2.51 (+0.25)          Parthenope (PRTNP) 1 2.51 (+0.25)          Wicked H$100 Call (WICKD.CA) 25000 8.22 (+0.40)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 100000 69.92 (+0.21)          Ranger's Apprentice (RNGAP) 8 1.68 (-0.03)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 149999 3.00 (-1.15)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 1864 20.07 (+0.08)          Y2K - Opening Weekend (Y2K.OW) 100000 5.70 (+0.70)          William Tell (WITEL) 5056 7.55 (-0.01)          Werewolves - Opening Weekend (WEREW.OW) 100000 5.42 (+0.42)