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TFA versus R1 (adjust/no adjust)
Posted by: MattW on Dec 29, 12:14
OW estimate versus OW actuals
TFA 238.00 - 247.96 (+4.18%)
R1 155.00 - 155.08 (+.05%)
I calculated R1's delist to be over 480 yesterday on the movies board, Gitesh Pandya said today on twitter he expects it to top Dory by January 8th, so very similar. I'll use Dory's domestic total for Rogue One's delist for the following:
TFA vs R1 movie stock price as a % of delist, days after Sunday estimate (using 486 for R1)
0: 79.0 - 89.6
1: 78.2 - 88.8
2: 82.6 - 89.4
3: 83.3 - 89.1
4: 83.5 - 88.8
5: 85.7 - 90.7
6: 86.9 - 90.2
7: 87.7 - 90.6
8: 89.4 - 89.9
9: 90.2 - 88.8
10: 91.4 - 90.8
11: 92.0 -
12: 91.6 -
13: 93.1 -
14: 94.8 -
15: 95.5 -
16: 96.3 -
17: 96.4 -
18: 96.6 -
19: 97.2 -
20: 97.1 -
21: 97.3 -
I'm not sure removing the adjust helped us predict the 4 weekend delist any better. And that's with TFA adjusting well below where it should have with actuals while rogue one OW estimate and actuals were exactly the same giving this specific case a 10pp gap at day 0. My theory is that having an adjust gives traders a clearer idea of what to do afterward to trade against actual box office results while not having an adjust means traders are just trading against each other for a longer period.
The prices of the openers on Wed the 21st have been bumping around just as aimlessly IMO
TFA versus R1 (adjust/no adjust) MattW Dec 29, 12:14
in Rogue One's case, at least, the adjust wouldn't have been a clear indicator, IMHO ... pacrat Dec 29, 21:16
The BW is the "Bonus" for week 5-12. {nm} Antibody Dec 30, 09:48
R1 would have adjusted down to H$418 and likely remain around H$20 beneath the current price right now. {nm} Antibody Dec 30, 09:47
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