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Average YTD Gains

Posted by: Wrath_crfd on Jan 04, 04:44 in response to Wrath_crfd's post Player Performance 2017 Annual

Average YTD Gains by start of year category

Average Gain, Top 15%, Top 1% and Top Trader divisions are shown by the bar graph below.

Standard Deviation by Category followed by the number of traders used to collate this data. Some clearly non-active traders were included, but about 2.5k traders were excluded from data to try and stop it from skewing averages downward. As expected, the spread of data was broader in the lower categories due to not only more people but far, far many more casual players than in higher categories.

If you made more than the mean plus the standard deviation this last year then were in the top 15% of traders in your category.

The top 1% of traders made 3 or more standard deviations above the mean and puts them in a class with only as few as 100 of the sites top traders for 2017. This is basically the list of people who have figured out how to do the most with whatever money they have.

How to read this graph - below average players will have made a 2017 YTD H$ gain within the blue bar, above average players will be in the green bar, top 15% players are in the yellow bar, top 1% players are in the red bar and the end of the red bar indicates the gain of the best player from that category.

Data is presented from over 9000 traders across the year. Traders have all been categorised into groups by the old PVL categories that they would have started the year within. There is an obvious lacking of some data in some places because it is easier or harder to get certain types of information.

Traders in the first four categories (up to 200M) are traders that were in leader boards throughout the year or entered Kaigee’s Top10K at some stage throughout the year. Thus these categories are stacked with active traders skewing the averages upwards relative to the other categories which also contain a number of inactive players. Due to noticing a significant number of traders seem to play seasonally or only very occasionally I decided this year to not exclude very many players from the top 10K.

Comparing this data back to 2016 data (Link http://imgur.com/a/ANTML) shows that there was a significant reduction in average returns this year compared to last. All categories performed to only 40% to 70% of 2016 returns. There could be several reasons for this however it is hard to ignore the fact that the adjust mechanism of the game was removed in late 2016.

In 2016 there were 147 traders who made more than H$1B, in 2017 this number was 32. 199 made half a billion or more down from 699.