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Playing & Trading Strategy

I have been doing a lot of shorting for the next month or so and when VOD releases are announced.

Posted by: RBlaine on Aug 07, 13:15 in response to unaturalx's post I should have realized I should have been playing the...

It is hard to imagine in this environment that any movie will go over $60M this year. But there is no accounting for what idiots will do when they are able to overpopulate theaters in states that want to completely open up. I am holding off on openings of October and beyond.

But as Barnum said “No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public.”  Theaters will open and we'll all just have to see how many of them enforce capacity and distancing rules. 

As traders we just need to watch and adjust our expectations as this terrible pandemic affects all of society. 

I hope that all of this community does their best to keep themselves and their community safe.

I should have realized I should have been playing the exact opposite of how I would normaly play. Down 10% on the year.......hate you Covid unaturalx Aug 04, 17:55

There is absolutely no reason in the world to own any MST long these days. ndmaster Aug 04, 20:50

Like most unqualified declarations about markets, that one seems unreliable {nm} SenJohnBlutarsky Aug 04, 21:16

Just calling it as I see it. ndmaster Aug 04, 21:33

you know ..... now I'll have to look up what "unqualified declarations" means...... :) unaturalx Aug 05, 05:54

Which is why I'm not playing much. People are shorting because that seems to be the in thing, Not because their is an news on that stock {nm} JDolphin Aug 05, 00:12

And that's not a game I care to play. HSX is now about 80% playing the players. AND I HATE THAT PART OF THE GAME! I've thought about leaving JDolphin Aug 05, 00:25

If Mulan is a huge financial success on Disney+ then the Cinema's are that much closer to extinction unaturalx Aug 05, 05:51

If cinemas are going extinct then their is no point to the game. So unless they find another way to measure the game ends. So why play {nm} JDolphin Aug 06, 00:03

You're wrong about it being playing the players. Instead, it's now about playing a drastically changed cinema market ... Patient Player Aug 05, 09:40

Newsflash: Theaters are closed and are coming back at 30 to 50% capacity if people even go back. You don't think it'll affect box office? {nm} Antibody Aug 05, 10:58

I'm not talking about movies being released in the next 6 months, but those in 2 or 3 yrs. If you think this is going to be permanent then JDolphin Aug 06, 00:25

They always go down when production and release date are pushed back by 6 months or more. Also, VOD has shorten the theatrical window. {nm} Antibody Aug 06, 08:41

Also, dozens of films have been sent and continue to be sent to VOD/Streaming = delist at H$0. {nm} Antibody Aug 05, 11:00

I'm not talking about movies with news .I have shorted those going STV {nm} JDolphin Aug 06, 00:27

You make more money by shorting BEFORE the STV news announcement. {nm} Antibody Aug 06, 08:42

And how are you supposed to know that??? {nm} JDolphin Aug 08, 23:05

Its actually pretty easy. {nm} ndmaster Aug 09, 19:54

Anticipation and speculating is part of the game. As others have mentioned, shorting is the profitable play until box office returns.. {nm} Antibody Aug 10, 10:15

I keep trying to figure out what would be the biggest blockbuster possible with only 1/2 the seats available in all theaters. albrown Aug 05, 12:20

Why? ndmaster Aug 05, 12:36

I think its good to know the over and under on a bet. If I know the top then I have a better chance of guessing the bottom. is albrown Aug 05, 14:49

Wrong. There is news and its is all bad, so to speak. ndmaster Aug 05, 22:22

So if the game has become about shorting everything, what's the point in playing? {nm} JDolphin Aug 06, 00:29

I think at some point big screen movies will come back, but for now adapt to new scenarios... Flash Aug 06, 16:43

I'm shorting because movies are delaying shooting, some going STV, and delayed releases...why not take advantage? {nm} Flash Aug 05, 14:37

Exactamundo! {nm} ndmaster Aug 05, 22:23

Because that's not what I consider fun. {nm} JDolphin Aug 06, 00:36

Pre Covid that was a small part of the game, now it's the majority of the game. {nm} JDolphin Aug 06, 00:39

Wrong. That was the way to play roughly 90% of MST out there before Covid. ndmaster Aug 06, 11:06

It's like when playing CRAPS at the Casino ..... i'll leave the table if someone is betting against the line. I get it JDolph .... I get it. {nm} unaturalx Aug 13, 14:13

I won't short movies when the real world result is people being unemployed. {nm} Silverblue76 Aug 18, 14:22

I have been doing a lot of shorting for the next month or so and when VOD releases are announced. RBlaine Aug 07, 13:15





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