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Oh, there it is: "Independents who caucus ... do not count." Silly me. (nm)

Posted by: Patient Player (a.k.a ribwoods) on Sep 16, 18:10 in response to Patient Player's post PoliticOption prices: BIDEN + TRUMP = HORDEM + HORREP +...

PoliticOption prices: BIDEN + TRUMP = HORDEM + HORREP + SENDEM + SENREP = 538 is what we would naively Patient Player Sep 16, 17:51

Oops -- forgot to add 3 to account for DC electoral votes. (nm) Patient Player Sep 16, 17:53

I.e., HORDEM + HORREP + SENDEM + SENREP + 3 = 538 {nm} Patient Player Sep 16, 18:01

Oh, there it is: "Independents who caucus ... do not count." Silly me. (nm) Patient Player Sep 16, 18:10

Because this is an open market. Prices are determined by traders and what they think will happen vs. current prices. ndmaster Sep 17, 18:10

Well, of course, but my point was that the arb hasn't been a stronger factor. (nm) Patient Player Sep 18, 15:40

I guess I needed to have explicitly explained that point to avoid misunderstanding. Sorry. (nm) Patient Player Sep 18, 15:46

It is not at all an efficient market. Most of the traders that will play them already have. Hard to move the market when there aren't many ndmaster Sep 19, 20:32

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