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Playing & Trading Strategy
'AVATAR: THE WAY OF THE WATER' (AVAT2) 468.31 Is Headed For A SMACK-DOWN Based On Its Current Pace Relative To (SW16). SMACK-DOWN To 438.93.
Posted by: RotoHockeyYTD2014 on Dec 25, 08:20
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3372254721/?ref_=bo_tt_gr_1
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2557707777/?ref_=bo_gr_rls
https://deadline.com/2022/12/box-office-christmas-avatar-way-of-water-babylon-puss-in-boots-the-last-wish-1235205786/
Avatar: The Way of the Water (AVAT2)
H$468.31
Shares Held Long on HSX: 515,337,736Shares Held Short on HSX: 55,437,238Trading Volume on HSX (Today): 5,309,625DAY 1: 71,094,394 - 53,200,270 = -17,884,124DAY 2: 117,402,059 - 97,528,157 = -19,873,902DAY 3: 155,081,681 - 134,100.226 = -20,981,455DAY 4: 172,677,831 - 150,357,304 = -22,320,527DAY 5: 190,260,809 - 168,646,208 = -21,614,601DAY 6: 205,226,599 - 183,049,646 = -22,176,953DAY 7: 221,999,674 - 197,181,686 = -24,317,988DAY 8: 244,859,930 - 217,181,686 = -27,678,244 ESTIMATEDDAY 9: 260,160,438 - 230,181,686 = -29,986,752 ESTIMATEDDAY 10: 286,033,442 - 252,681,686 = -33,351,756 ESTIMATEDDAY 11: 318,119,079 - 279,681,686 = -38,437,393 ESTIMATEDDAT24: 477,364,924 - 38,437,393 = 438,927,531 ESTIMATED.
'AVATAR: THE WAY OF THE WATER' (AVAT2) 468.31 Is Headed For A SMACK-DOWN Based On Its Current Pace Relative To (SW16). SMACK-DOWN To 438.93.
RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 25, 08:20
AVAT2 has not traded above 465 today.
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Antibody
Dec 25, 08:28
Started the Post yesterday. Copied the Price. Took a long time to do all the MATH.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 25, 08:34
Pretty easy to check the current price.
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Antibody
Dec 25, 09:02
Makes No Difference. Current Price is 463.39 - that still makes No Difference. The Focus is on the MATH.
RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 25, 10:12
Makes a difference when you try to claim how "close" your prediction was.
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Antibody
Dec 27, 10:19
or rather "how much" H$ was gained.
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Antibody
Dec 27, 10:24
Not a PREDICTION. These are FACTS. The Focus is on the Box Office Comparison.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 10:39
How much was Gained / Lost is Irrelevant. Focus is on whether a SMACK-DOWN occurs.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 10:44
So you're just trying to move the stock price in a certain direction.
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Antibody
Dec 27, 11:00
HUH? That's Crazy Talk. Posting the Box Office Comparison. Not trying to do anything else.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 11:13
No usage of "SMACKDOWN" will now be deleted.
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Antibody
Dec 28, 01:14
It's not a PREDICTION.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 10:46
Then what's the purpose of your projections? No two films will decay at the exact same rate.
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Antibody
Dec 27, 11:12
EXACTLY. The Blockbuster Comparison is relevant to see whether the (AVAT2) Delist CashOut will Match / Exceed / Underperform (SW16) 477.36.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 11:17
Okay. Any usage of "SMAKCDOWN" will now be deleted.
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Antibody
Dec 28, 01:11
The PURPOSE of the (AVAT2) / (SW16) Comparison is to show what (AVAT2) needs to do to Match / Exceed / Underperform (SW16) 477.36.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 11:22
Is this an attempt to communicate with humans? (Setting aside the random capitalization and other quirks) {nm}
SenJohnBlutarsky
Dec 27, 22:35
"quirks"
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Moviesnob
Dec 27, 23:30
Also Copied the Number of (AVAT2) Shares Held LONG (515,337,736) & the Number of (AVAT2) Shares Held SHORT (55,437,238).
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 25, 08:50
Roto - I agree with your premise and the math is valid however the weather is delaying some from seeing the movie.
CButera
Dec 25, 10:15
This is going to be quite wrong and the only smackdown will be your predictions. Lets revisit when the figures are updated with actuals.
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Peter453
Dec 26, 04:10
RIGHT not WRONG. FACT not PREDICTION. FACT: (AVAT2) SMACK-DOWN to 438.93 'Based On Its Current Pace Relative To (SW16). FACT.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 26, 18:48
Hopeless as usual
Peter453
Dec 26, 20:11
If you say you are, then you must be. FACTS were the FACTS. FACTS get Updated. Those were DAY 11 FACTS: Actual Box Office & DL Estimates.
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Captain Obvious
Dec 26, 21:25
Obviously, (AVAT2) needs to dramatically out-perform (SW16) for DAYS 8-24. If it doesn't, SMACK-DOWN occurs.
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Captain Obvious
Dec 26, 21:27
Daily Updates can be Prepared showing the Difference between (AVAT2) & (SW16) Heading towards Delist CashOut for (AVAT2).
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Captain Obvious
Dec 26, 21:29
These were not PREDICTIONS - they were FACTS Demonstrating how far Behind (SW16) was at DAY11 Based on Posted Information by Deadline.
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Captain Obvious
Dec 26, 21:33
What you have Posted are not Actuals - they are simply Updated Deadline Estimates - Higher than the Disney / BOM 4-DAY Estimates of 90.0.
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Captain Obvious
Dec 26, 22:16
The DAY11 (AVAT2) / (SW16) Comparison will be Posted once the DAY-8-9-10-11 Actuals have been Posted. (SW16) DAY 24 Delist CashOut - 477.36.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 26, 22:20
(SW16) Actuals for the 4-DAY (DAYS-8-9-10-11) were 96.1.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 26, 22:24
FACT is Based upon Actual Box Office plus 4-DAY Deadline Estimates at DAY 11. FACT not PREDICTION. Will Update SMACK-DOWN FACT after Actuals
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 26, 18:51
FACT is the actual AVAT2 4-day is $95.5M. Your projections wasn't based on FACT.
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Antibody
Dec 27, 10:22
FACTS were Based on the Deadline Posted Estimates. Never Claimed they were Actuals.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 10:50
There were no Actuals then - just the Deadline Posted Estimates. That is a FACT.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 10:52
(AVAT2) / (SW16) Comparison was Based on the Known FACTS at that time.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 10:55
At that time Nobody knew what the Actuals would be.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 10:57
Only Actuals are Facts. Projections are OPINIONS at the times, not facts.
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Antibody
Dec 27, 11:03
The Deadline Posted Estimates were the Known FACTS at that time. There were no Actuals. Updated Comparison is Underway.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 11:20
Estimates are not facts, they are guesses. Sometimes they can be educated guesses but even those aren't facts.
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DTravel
Dec 27, 22:29
He did not indicate they were facts; he declared them to be FACTS (a moment of silence for standard English) {nm}
SenJohnBlutarsky
Dec 27, 22:37
Updated Comparison is underway.
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RotoHockeyYTD2014
Dec 27, 10:59
Don't forget The Random CAPITALIZATION! (Maybe add strings of exclamation points?) {nm}
SenJohnBlutarsky
Dec 28, 19:31
If the Sunday number had held then yeah 440 would probably be right, but with ~29m it could very well bend the curve up and land in the 460s
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MattW
Dec 26, 09:45