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my thoughts on TGRLW....
For starters this movie opens on Wednesday, December 21st. The way that Christmas falls this year kills any momentum for a great adjust on this film.
You're going to get (Wed-Thur) - (Fri-Sun* 2.7)
Christmas Eve falls on a Saturday and isn't known for big business at the movie theatre, so it has that going against it.
Most of us know that movie legs are great after 12/25, but let's go back the last 7 years and see how films have faired going wide before Xmas.
22-2010
Little Fockers: 14M Wed-Thur + 31M Fri-Sun. Christmas Eve was down 30% from the previous night
True Grit: 11M Wed-Thur + 24M Fri-Sun. Christmas Eve was down 30% from the previous night
18-2009
Avatar: 70M opening weekend. Christmas Eve was down 32% from the previous night
19-2008
Seven Pounds: 14M opening weekend. Christmas Eve was down 33% from the previous night
Yes Man: 18M opening weekend. Christmas Eve was down 43% from the previous night
21-2007
National Treasure: 44M opening weekend. Christmas Eve was down 45% from the previous night
Sweeney Todd: 9M opening weekend. Christmas Eve was down 55% from the previous night
22-2006
The Good Shepherd: 4day opened to 14M. Christmas Eve was down 50% from the previous night
Night at the Museum: 4day opened to 70M. Christmas Eve was down 8% from the previous night
We Are Marshall: 4day opened to 10M. Christmas Eve was down 64% from the previous night
21-2005
Cheaper By the Dozen 2: 5M Wed-Thur, 9M Fri-Sun. Christmas Eve was down 50% from the previous night
Fun with Dick & Jane: 7.5M Wed-Thur, 14M Fri-Sun. Christmas Eve was down 53% from the previous night
22-2004
Phantom of the Opera: 2.3M Wed-Thur, 4M Fri-Sun. Christmas Eve was down 20% from the previous night
Meet the Fockers: 24M Wed-Thur, 46M Fri-Sun. Christmas Eve was down 42% from the previous night
Now what the film has going for it is that none of the films above are a true direct comparison in regards to source material. However with the exception of Avatar (the biggest film of all time) and Night at the Museum 2 (kid friendly popular sequel) & Meet the Fockers (highly anticpated sequel) no film has opened over 45M.
This is a heavy R rated film no major star power (Craig is arguable, yes Bond helps) that is opening over the worst set of 5 days for adjust that a movie can. In my opinion at best this movie opens to (12-15M Wed-Thurs) and (20-25M Fri-Sun). The argument can be made that it is an extremely popular book, but not popular like Twilight or Potter...not even the same crowd. I have no doubt it can do well after XMas, but would be very surprised to see anything above 40M for the 5 day.
At 15M for Wed-Thur and 25M for the weekend that would put the adjust at roughly 83M. This is my opinion on the opening and I am not trying to manipulate the stock. Things could change with the marketing or release date, but doubtful in my opinion.
Fincher is solid, but most don't know who he is. WOM should be strong on the film, but I don't expect that to boost the OW by any means.
To meet its current price it needs a 25M Wed-Thur and 50M Fri-Sun. Just seems way HIGH to me.
my thoughts on TGRLW.... Jun 06, 12:25
There's also likely to be some audience confusion. I've seen The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo DVD prominently displayed Jun 06, 12:35
i agree. been watching this one closely for months and just been amazed at the levels it's trading. {nm} Jun 06, 12:36
Agree. (I've lost a LOT of bucks on this one, playing my head instead of the market.) {nm} Jun 06, 12:47
by the way, was this the one we agreed upon? {nm} Jun 06, 12:42
I was thinking of a Summer opener, but we do agree on this one too. {nm} Jun 06, 12:52
share with the class. though i'm sure we're holding the same. {nm} Jun 06, 12:55
The name is a riff on what's probably considered a politically incorrect game kids (used to) play. {nm} Jun 06, 13:04
I know my wife and I like to play Bad Teacher, but riddles aren't my game sir. I need more. {nm} Jun 06, 13:07
*Tips ten gallon hat and beams aboard mother ship* {nm} Jun 06, 13:20
doh! I'm a SuperSonicMoron. {nm} Jun 06, 13:34
TGRLW should be able to do Hannibal's 3day $58M over 5 days; $75M would just be DVINC over 5 days. {nm} Jun 06, 12:45
You conveniently left out the Lord of the Rings movies... Weds, Thurs, Friday and Sunday will be huge for this. {nm} Jun 06, 13:01
i went back the past 7 years. you're seriously comparing this film to LOTR? {nm} Jun 06, 13:03
Dude, you have no idea what kind of buzz that trailer created over Memorial Day weekend. Jun 06, 13:15
And this is from someone who had it short for a long long time and reversed it as soon as that red band trailer broke Jun 06, 13:17
and even more from it's high of 166 {nm} Jun 06, 13:28
I already have it doing $35 million on Wednesday and Thursday 'cause none of the other movies open until Friday. {nm} Jun 06, 13:28
Darkest Hour will move (or else it better) and I'm thinking the Jolie movie may be limited at this point. {nm} Jun 06, 13:29
i will gladly admit if I'm wrong. like I said, these are my thoughts on the movies box office potential. {nm} Jun 06, 13:31
17.5M opening day? rated R film, with little to-no star power? the book has only been out for 6 years? {nm} Jun 06, 13:44
Easy... go ahead bookmark this and we can revisit in December. {nm} Jun 06, 14:07
fo sho playa, fo sho. {nm} Jun 06, 14:10
The same could be said about SUPR8's initial trailer. :) {nm} Jun 06, 13:40
the same is said about it. even I bought into that hype to an extent, then realized the signs pointed much further south. {nm} Jun 06, 13:42
If they haven't seen a movie in years how did they see the trailer? Jun 06, 13:43
Both based on literary trilogies, but wayyyyyyyy different genres there. {nm} Jun 06, 13:05
To elaborate: LOTR is a full 4 quadrant series. DragonTat is 2 quadrant, at most. {nm} Jun 06, 13:46
and the book was published in 1954. {nm} Jun 06, 13:49
also, how huge is HUGE? Meet the Fockers was pretty big and even if it did those numbers it's considerably overpriced. {nm} Jun 06, 13:10