HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
This summer a lot of wide releases with once high expectations have been under pressure...
... as early summer would-be blockbusters have underperformed, and so prices of these stocks (CAPAM, RSAPE, CBALN among those still to open) have sagged. Ideally, prices move in response to news (of progress in development, hiring of cast and crew, completion), publicity (trailers and advertising campaigns) and tracking information (posted on the forum Sunday evening and Mondays, almost every week, or in places like deadline.com by Nikki Finke). To a lesser extent, long-term predictions by places like boxoffice.com.
"Underperformed" compared to our expectations, as jeankie suggested above. CBALN has had two films "menacing" its prospects: Will Smith's follow-up to "Independence Day" ("Wild Wild West") and "Jonah Hex" (a graphic novel set in the west), both of which failed in their own ways. The trailers, I think, have not convinced people of the hoped-for difference: why will CBLAN flourish where these other two failed. You can argue the point of whether these are good comparisons, but you'd first have to argue that people in general will see them as irrelevant. I expect when the first tracking appears for CBALN, it will support a further drop in the price (i.e. mid 30s as a "prediction" for its opening weekend).
As a rule, I think we take the matching or the approaching of OW records a bit for granted, and we forget sometimes what an achievement it is to open a film at, say 40M or 50M (i.e. THOR, GLANT, XMEN4 this summer among newish properties).
formula* {nm} Jun 30, 03:47
I don't think u understand the formula. No movie is opening to 300m {nm} Jun 30, 04:41
hahaha I'm pretty sure I don't. {nm} Jun 30, 07:45
This summer a lot of wide releases with once high expectations have been under pressure... Jun 30, 06:24
oops. Meant this to be a reply to ENAdam. {nm} Jun 30, 06:38
The formula ( for 3 day weekend) is OW*2.7=sunday adjust. Then the four week total for the movie is your delist price. {nm} Jun 30, 05:38
** This post has been removed by the forum moderator! ** Jun 30, 07:47
and, yea, I know that nothing short of HP8 or Hobit is gonna pull that in less than 4 weeks. {nm} Jun 30, 07:48
stock price is already multiplied. you divide by 2.7 to get the projected OW Jun 30, 07:55
oh. nice. thanks. didn't realize. {nm} Jun 30, 08:55
If CBALN has an opening weekend of 50M, it would adjust to H$135. 40M, to H$108. {nm} Jun 30, 08:24
oh my god, I've been multiplying this whole time... Jun 30, 08:54
Oh well. By the way, the "OW" derivatives, of course, are exempt from opening weekend multipliers. {nm} Jun 30, 08:56
... for a sec I was like "noooooooooo" then I realized that I knew that. haha. {nm} Jun 30, 10:51
Antibody, could you delete this thread? It's speculative and jerking the price for no reason. Jul 08, 10:51
Too much egg nog? {nm} Jun 30, 09:42
it's ok. I only drink BEFORE work! {nm} Jun 30, 10:51