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Dusting off an old Report - Box Office Prediction Site Accuracies (Including HSX)
Posted by: horlicks on Oct 24, 10:21
This is for all weekends up to last weekend starting with September 18th*. The formula used to calculate accuracy is a standard 1 - (Error). Error is calculated as (Absolute Value(Prediction - Actuals)) / Actuals. The HSX Accuracy is calculated by projecting the prediction for each film to see if it indicated an HSX long or short. The percentages are the amount of time the prediction site is right calling the openers over the period of time.
2009 (Since September 18th)
| 1. | BOF | 78.78% |
| 2. | BOG | 76.17% |
| 3. | AVE | 75.38% |
| 4. | HSX | 70.88% |
| 5. | Lee | 70.47% |
| 6. | WW | 67.95% |
| 7. | TBO | 67.42% |
| 8. | BOP | 66.37% |
HSX Accuracy
| 1. | BOF | 87.50% |
| 2. | AVE | 68.75% |
| 3. | WW | 62.50% |
| 4. | BOP | 62.50% |
| 5. | Lee | 56.25% |
| 6. | BOG | 56.25% |
| 7. | TBO | 40.00% |
BOF - Box Office Follower (http://piaofang.blogspot.com/)
BOG - Box Office Guru (http://www.boxofficeguru.com/)
AVE - Average of all predictions
HSX - The HSX 'prediction' of (Halt Price - Previous) / Applicable Multiplier
Lee - Lee's Movie Info (http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/)
WW - Weekend Warrior (http://www.comingsoon.net)
TBO - Twitter Box Office (http://www.twitterboxoffice.com/)
BOP - Box Office Prophets (http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/)
*Notes. Only have data for Twitter Box Office since Oct. 9th (5 openers).
Dusting off an old Report - Box Office Prediction Site Accuracies (Including HSX) horlicks Oct 24, 10:21
Also, for those who contend HSX is less accurate in recent times. Its accuracy for the 2 years I ran this report from 04-06 was 66.03%. {nm} horlicks Oct 24, 10:24
What about MTC and RS? {nm} secretstalker Oct 24, 10:47
Good point, I don't have data from past weeks for that. Could you provide the week of data for them? {nm} horlicks Oct 24, 10:51
I'm pretty sure I have RS... let me see what I have for MTC. It might be a lot "backboarding" though... secretstalker Oct 24, 10:53
These should suffice Perfection Oct 24, 11:02
Sorry for not clarifying; the first link contains results from September, the second from October. Perfection Oct 24, 11:05
That's great, thanks! {nm} secretstalker Oct 24, 11:09
Thanks for that. Looks like *we* aren't so bad. {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:04
Updated numbers including MTC and RS horlicks Oct 24, 15:12
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