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"The Hobbit" doesn't have the same overall awareness of the story as LOTR did. I think this will be a factor as well for opening weekend.
I've read the LOTR series at least 1/2 dozen times in my life and remember the significant high points (without having to reference the movies), but I haven't read The Hobbit in over 20 years, and can barely remember the basic plotline.
I think the movies will do quite well for its full run, but I don't think there is the same fan enthusiasm level as there was for the first trilogy. I remember how stoked I was from the first images and trailers from LOTR, and I followed it fairly avidly. For The Hobbit, I have peripheral awareness of it, have not been overwhelmed by the marketing so far, and while it's on my "Must-See" list for this year, I probably won't be there opening day, and maybe not opening weekend.
I can't be the only one in this position.
okay so a lot of sites are saying HOBIT $80m, I want to go on record as predicting $113 opening. Nov 07, 09:20
That would be awesome but highly unlikely because of the holidays. I'd be 100% with you if it was a summer release date. Nov 07, 10:00
Hobitses are too precious, can't afford to play short or long. {nm} Nov 07, 10:05
elchan- whatever happened with your penny trading league? Nov 07, 11:04
"The Hobbit" doesn't have the same overall awareness of the story as LOTR did. I think this will be a factor as well for opening weekend. Nov 07, 10:27
The Hobbit has been a mainstay for teens reading for decades. {nm} Nov 07, 11:12
The most important one would be the last decade when they're reading HPOT, TWLI and HGAM. {nm} Nov 07, 11:24
Your asumption is that those are the only books they have read. {nm} Nov 08, 00:26
That is very... hmmm... Romney of you to say. {nm} Nov 07, 12:01
I dare say $95-100m is not out of the question. But then again, I enjoyed HPOT more than those ring movies! {nm} Nov 07, 11:25
Uh... Books! Yes, I do mean books! {nm} Nov 07, 11:26
even at those numbers, some of the movies are (were) overpriced for the OW adjusts. {nm} Nov 07, 11:50
Yes, that is my range as well {nm} Nov 07, 12:41