Look at the box office. Argo is a certantly across all categories, Master similarly, Hobbit will pick up technical noms, Anna Karenina for adaprted screenplay because no one has done in a pop way before, animated is obvious in noms but won't go to Brave, Marigold Hotel will get some supporting nods, Avengers and TDKR will get a load of noms due to box office - I think Bale may pick up a actor nom just to please WB, maybe RDJ in supporting too, alongside all the technical ones. Think TDKR is probably going to get cinematography.