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Starting with the assumption that JB21 and JB23 are enjoying similar critical and popular acclaim, thus leading to similar BO performance,
do you think that the fact that JB21 opened the weekend before Thanksgiving and didn't face one of the November blockbusters (HPOT or TWIL), while JB23 opens 2 weekends before Thanksgiving and has to contend with TWIL5 in its second week means JB23 might not be able to reach the same multiplier?
I know the HPOT and TWIL series don't really have a crossover audience with something like James Bond, but looking at the past dozen years when one of those blockbuster movies has opened in November (7 instances), it appears that most of the movies that had opened the weekend before had some pretty poor holds in their 2nd weekend. Now granted, a lot of those movies were pretty crappy and expected to be OW frontloaded (2012 and Immortals for example), but is it possible that, if they didn't have to face TWLI or HPOT in their second weekends, they would have had better holds?
In addition, does anyone have any idea, done any analysis, on whether a movie is better off (in it's 4 week window) opening two weekends before Thanksgiving versus 1 weekend before Thanksgiving (as JB 21 did)? In a vacuum, is it better to have your third weekend be the long Thanksgiving weekend and your fourth weekend be the weak "post Thanksgiving weekend", or is it better to have Thanksgiving weekend be your second week, the doldrums of the next week be your third week?
JB23 is going to be a nice litmus test. JB21 didn't have to face a HPOT or TWIL, while JB22 had to contend with TWLI1- of course, JB21 was MUCH more well regarded and had better WOM than JB22, so that HAS to factor in. I dunno. I'm interested in seeing how JB23 plays out.
Official Adjust Nov 11, 10:30
JB23 100,000 long H$83.18 H$239.26 H$23.35 (10.81%) H$23,926,000.00 15,608,250.00 (187.65%) {nm} Nov 11, 11:00
I currently have $574M in cash. {nm} Nov 11, 11:26
Cash don't make you money! Invest some of that haul! {nm} Nov 11, 11:40
Can't find anything! {nm} Nov 11, 15:22
Almost $1.5B in cash. {nm} Nov 11, 13:42
1.88 bill in cash {nm} Nov 11, 16:21
JB23 100,000 long H$79.43 H$239.26 H$23.35 (10.81%) H$23,926,000.00 15,982,744.00 (201.21%) - I win? {nm} Nov 11, 11:42
JB23 100,000 long H$74.39 H$239.26 H$23.35 (10.81%) H$23,926,000.00 16,487,500.00 (221.65%) {nm} Nov 11, 23:59
2.77 opening IM, right on par with Casino Royale; CR finished with 4.1 overall multiplier, Skyfall needs 3.39 for $300m Nov 11, 11:03
thx...and good you had time to stop by! {nm} Nov 11, 11:09
Quantum of Solace opened the same weekend to $67M and had a under 2.3 delist multiplier. {nm} Nov 11, 11:11
With much worse WOM {nm} Nov 11, 11:14
Wish I had read your analysis before I sold my shares. {nm} Nov 11, 11:27
Why? Casino Royal had a delist multiplier of 3.16 on a $41M opening weekend. JB23 opened to more than twice Casino Royal. {nm} Nov 11, 11:35
Dont feel bad.. If you need cash for that vampire flick coming next weekend, you did the right thing... Nov 11, 11:35
and that other movie with stars and wars and such {nm} Nov 11, 11:49
Starting with the assumption that JB21 and JB23 are enjoying similar critical and popular acclaim, thus leading to similar BO performance, Nov 11, 15:19