I saw Up in the Air on Sunday, and I'd be very surprised to see it delist at more than mid-twenties, although I would have to wait and see what happens with the limited release the first few weeks.
It's an a little above average movie, but clearly more thoughtful than the average. Even still, I can easily find things to criticise about it. It skews almost feminist. The women are the heroines of it. Perhaps this is meant to balance out the male themes of isolation, materialism and rationalization, but it comes across as a slight tad politically correct male guilt trip from Jason Reitman. Not that it's very in your face - with me it seeped in eventually.. But the women in the film are allowed to objectivize males as if it's the most natural thing in the world, whereas no man there even came remotely close to doing the same about women.
I just don't see it's commercial appeal. It has the hallmarks of an indie film, but with excellent production values where needed (nice aerial shots of various US cities). It's very low-key and personal. May be a bit on the profound and depressing side for Christmas. My buddy that I went with really liked it, though - although I thought it might, as he's the kind of emotional intimacy-shy professional loner Clooney portrays (although not quite in the same way, but how odd wouldn't that have been).
I think the limited release might actually hurt its chances. I'm not sure why they're going for that, nor do I understand why they moved it to that very crammed release date of 12/25.
I could still be wrong, though - and that's what makes this game always so exciting.
It's Complicated also definitely skews towards a female audience (I refuse to write "women" audience), and most likely an on average slightly older one (won't say mature, cause Up in the Air is definitely mature stuff, and probably a lot more so than the popcorn pleaser-teaser holiday guilty pleasure that I expect It's Complicated to be).
Question is, what will people want to see during Xmas holidays? Light hearted stuff with a killer title (It's Complicated), or a very down to earth and profound movie that's paradoxically called Up in the Air?
Oh well, at least there are some snow shots in UPAIR - from locations in Detroit (briefly) and Wisconsin (more notably).