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Playing the odds and going long on all except Transylmania

Posted by: secretstalker (a.k.a TheWeekendWarrior) on Dec 04, 09:25 in response to eyescovered's post Final Hour Gut Checks? At the current prices, I'm...

Don't think any of them will bomb as badly as they'd all have to bomb not to make their prices.. In a world where The Blind Side makes $100 million in ten days, there's room for other movies to make the $5-7 million they all need to make.

Final Hour Gut Checks? At the current prices, I'm thinking long BRTHS and shot the rest. {nm} eyescovered Dec 04, 09:05

er, shot = short {nm} eyescovered Dec 04, 09:07

Short everthing. {nm} icecreamman Dec 04, 09:10

I'd love to hear why you think BRTHS is the long option, and not any of the others. Because I see people say this, but no one says why this Facto Dec 04, 09:11

No huge reasoning. Just after looking at the predictions I think it'll do more than 6m. Plus I see a lot of ads for it and barely... eyescovered Dec 04, 09:14

Lots of ads, none make me want to see it. {nm} Hooray360 Dec 04, 09:22

Na, me either but the ladies need another sappy movie since they all saw Blind Side! {nm} eyescovered Dec 04, 09:25

Brothers hmm Dec 04, 09:15

I see, thanks - but will it be enough for it to do as much as 6M over the weekend.. ? {nm} Facto Dec 04, 09:22

I doubt we'll see any huge adjusts. But it's only fake money, so sure why not! {nm} eyescovered Dec 04, 09:26

for me, it would be: name actors + ads on TV + Oscar potential + low price. I was thinking about longing but have decided to stay short RogerMore Dec 04, 09:30

Playing the odds and going long on all except Transylmania secretstalker Dec 04, 09:25

also remember Law Abiding Citizen {nm} hmm Dec 04, 09:29

Law Abiding Citizen was seriously underestimated by Whispers IndieFund Dec 04, 09:53

You're perhaps forgetting that this is a very weak weekend, traditionally.. ? It's ebb and flow, the tide is sinking low, they say.. {nm} Facto Dec 04, 10:09

Im longing ARMRD and shorting the rest. Men their FIx. (remember NINJA) {nm} gogreen Dec 04, 09:27

Actually, the director of Armored is quite acclaimed, and is also picked by Rodriguez to direct Predators... So it's not necessarily brainle Facto Dec 04, 09:35

I'm flipping to long on ARMRD. I can see this doing retty good opening and then getting buried by next week. {nm} eyescovered Dec 04, 09:28

Armored is also only 85 minutes long IndieFund Dec 04, 09:52

short them all... but am flipping Armoured. ( Gogreen is right; men need their fix. And the trailer looks great to me ) {nm} JMT Dec 04, 09:45

oh, and also -just now- decided to go long on SMNLT cause of Twilights Kirsten. JMT Dec 04, 09:59

I'm rolling the dice and going long on everything except Armored. That one I'm gonna short. {nm} HuskyMiller Dec 04, 09:52

interesting strategy husky. shorted errr'ting. {nm} adrenalin112 Dec 04, 09:59

Short 'em all {nm} ChrisEW Dec 04, 10:17





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Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 50000 12.79 (-0.42)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 50000 3.44 (-0.56)          Djimon Hounsou (DHOUN) 25000 71.75 (-1.30)          Djimon Hounsou (DHOUN) 25000 71.75 (-1.30)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 50000 13.01 (-1.02)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 49999 3.44 (-0.56)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 49999 12.79 (-0.42)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 99999 207.63 (+2.20)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 99999 207.63 (+2.20)          Dear Santa (DSATA) 150000 0.71 (-0.15)          Cynthia Erivo (CERIV) 25000 39.67 (+0.37)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 20.33 (+0.12)          Pedro Pascal (PPASC) 25000 36.37 (+0.12)          Paul Mescal (PMESC) 25000 18.23 (+0.50)          Fred Hechinger (FHECH) 25000 21.92 (+0.74)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 170.50 (-0.33)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 150000 207.63 (+2.20)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 149999 20.19 (-0.24)          Wicked (WICKD) 150000 305.99 (+4.51)          Relay (RELAY) 149999 3.24 (-0.33)          Him aka Goat (GOAT1) 149999 21.32 (+1.94)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Moana 2 H$130 Put Wed-Sun (MOAN2.PU) 25000 1.02 (+0.06)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 11.65 (+3.75)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Wicked (WICKD) 50000 305.99 (+4.51)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Zawe Ashton (ZASHT) 25000 20.75 (+0.12)          Tina Fey (TFEY) 25000 43.27 (+0.16)          Sofia Coppola (SCOPP) 25000 5.98 (+0.05)          Sarah Silverman (SSILV) 25000 47.39 (+0.16)          Dear Santa (DSATA) 150000 0.71 (-0.15)          Ruth Negga (RNEGG) 25000 17.83 (+0.10)          Dear Santa (DSATA) 150000 0.71 (-0.15)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Richard Madden (RMADD) 25000 93.73 (0.00)          Rachel Weisz (RWEIS) 25000 41.05 (+0.16)          Wicked (WICKD) 5000 305.99 (+4.51)          Wicked (WICKD) 5000 305.99 (+4.51)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 170.50 (-0.33)          Wicked (WICKD) 5000 305.99 (+4.51)          September 5 (SEPT5) 20000 14.70 (+0.16)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 3200 16.87 (-0.26)          Paddington in Peru (PADT3) 20000 51.53 (+0.17)          Den of Thieves 2: Pantera (DENO2) 10000 28.04 (+0.23)          Noah Baumbach (NBAUM) 25000 2.88 (0.00)          Dune: Messiah aka Dune: Part Thr (DUNE3) 10000 173.08 (+0.93)          Flow (FLOW) 150000 2.25 (+0.16)          Nate Parker (NAPAR) 25000 24.47 (+0.25)          Mira Sorvino (MSORV) 25000 32.28 (+0.12)