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Roger actually provided the trifecta with Tangled. Along with Frozen and Lorax, it makes 3 Bonehead "tracking" out about 50%+... (more)
The only hypothesis here, for starters, was more or less "LEGO is being BONEHEAD underestimated by [Anita, MTC, tracking generally]". We will know, probably by late tonight or early tomorrow, whether that's true. In the interim -- and I did NOT know the answer when I posed the question -- I thought it would be interesting to see whether tracking had got it wrong for the MOST COMPARABLE MOVIES. Turns out, it did in three conspicuous cases with NONE so far that can't be explained as different.
Let's assume for a moment that LEGO will be #4 within the last 3 yrs and 2+ months. We will then have:
Frozen
Lego
Lorax
Tangled
Why those four conspicuous BONEHEAD predictions? Roger's "answer" is to look for irrelevant straw man examples of more obscure, lower-grossing movies, to prove MTC or tracking generally isn't always BONEHEAD. Fine and I never said otherwise.
But facts are facts, and it isn't cherry-picking to cite the most relevant facts. The four BONEHEAD tracking predictions above will be fact if LEGO pans out. Even if Lego doesn't pan out, why the other 3?
It's a reasonable question, best answered by avoiding straw man responses. I'll give it a go...
Frozen and Tangled were both based on fairy tales and were both Disney (but NOT Pixar, which at least until recently was a no-brainer not to underestimate). Lorax was Dr. Seuss, so a more modern fairy tale one might say but still iconic for decades. LEGO is neither a fairy tale nor Dr. Seuss, but it is iconic expecially among boys and males through adulthood, and has (again) been for many decades.
So "iconic among the young, and the young-at-heart especially parents with kids" may be the theme here. It's perhaps more difficult for the tracking to measure. With sequels or Pixar or non-iconic stuff, there's not as much potential or opportunity to be SO wrong.
The conflict of interest between tracking and studios may also factor in. Especially on a non-sequel, a studio would much rather lowball than overestimate. But measuring kids' want-to-see, and young-at-heart parents with kids want-to-see, is probably also something tracking just isn't good at.
At least the underestimates have been coming with "some think much higher" caveats more often. 
It'll be interesting to see how LEGO does. There are some differences with the other 3, we just don't know whether those will prove to be important enough to yield a < $50M weekend. The young male vs. young female market, the Olympics, weather especially in early February, and the competition (strong for this time of year) could conceivably all hurt LEGO.
Wonder if Roger, notfabio or anyone else has stats on how tracking has done with high-OW family movies. {nm} Feb 06, 12:01
MTC had Hotel Transylvania at $35m (opened to $42.5m). They had LEGO at $43.8m earlier this week. {nm} Feb 06, 12:17
What did tracking say for Lorax, Frozen, etc. -- i.e., other non-sequels that opened big. Any notable lowball misses? {nm} Feb 06, 12:20
Just checked. MTC had $45M for Lorax at the time (link) ... Feb 06, 12:25
So MTC was 55% off on Lorax, and if it's off the same here Lego would get close to $70M. {nm} Feb 06, 12:27
The data is on-line if you want to check it out yourself. Feb 06, 12:27
lol those frozen predicts: 60,70,65....weekend estimate 93 {nm} Feb 06, 12:35
Well there's no MTC or RS for Frozen on Roger's spreadsheet, and the $93M actual (estimate) was 5-day. {nm} Feb 06, 12:44
Those are five-day predictions. The prediction always matches the weekend (and if it doesn't, I fudge it so it does) Feb 06, 12:51
Okay, so we don't have MTC but those others thatpj mentioned were off about 50% on Frozen as well. {nm} Feb 06, 12:54
Roger actually provided the trifecta with Tangled. Along with Frozen and Lorax, it makes 3 Bonehead "tracking" out about 50%+... (more) Feb 07, 07:11
IMO 60+ at least {nm} Feb 06, 12:22
I've read that 85 is a possibility! {nm} Feb 06, 13:17
Where!? {nm} Feb 06, 13:48
Well, if you base it just on the presales being ahead MONS2 and DESC2. {nm} Feb 06, 13:55
I have heard 40M up until yesterday - now the general estimate is north of $70..Very Strange {nm} Feb 06, 13:25
Actually, 70 still falls into that 40M up that you heard about yesterday. Strange would be anything less than 40, right? {nm} Feb 06, 13:42
When they give estimates on bigger movies the #'s are always a little less.. Much different with Feb 06, 14:26
Very good points made and also very interesting. I'll watch for your post later if you get a chance. {nm} Feb 06, 14:48
Thanks! {nm} Feb 06, 15:06
LEGO surpassing advance ticket sales for Frozen (which opened to $67.3M in 3642 theaters), De Feb 06, 12:12