HSX Forum

Movies

No, I don't follow. If you can't be bothered with figuring out how films behave from day to day, you shouldn't be doing daily calculations.

Posted by: Inigo (a.k.a Inigo75) on Jan 05, 08:39 in response to grammar's post When one is using daily historical percentages, the hope...

If you don't understand that making more during a week than a weekend just doesn't ever happen, you don't really analyze box office. You're just throwing out random numbers at that point. Your delist estimate won't be that far off, but what happens from day to day will be.

You're calling for an over 50% drop this weekend for a film that hasn't dropped over 10% any weekend yet. That's just not right.

Seems like Monday's box office for Avatar is the real indicator for whether it has a shot at Dark Knight and even Titanic domestic. mcreilly62 Jan 05, 06:42

Take a look at the reports at the bottom of the board - this one's not trailing off anytime soon. Novice Jan 05, 07:14

Actually, all Avatar needs to do from here on in is dropoff proprtionately to what The Prince of Egypt did in 1999 to beat The Dark Knight. Inigo Jan 05, 07:17

interesting comparison - hadn't gone through all the numbers; pretty interesting inside mcreilly62 Jan 05, 07:49

Honored by a vist of one of the Prophets. If you have any questions about delist estimates ask while he is here. :)) Inigo, David and Vashta Nerada Jan 05, 10:16

IMHO, even if Avatr did $11M on Monday, it is unlikely it will surpass the Dark Knight. My schedule shows 7.5M for Monday. It will be grammar Jan 05, 07:21

You haven't done any real calculations if you believe Avatar won't pass Dark Knight with an $11 million Monday. {nm} Inigo Jan 05, 07:24

The both of youse is crazy nuts. PRNCE was a family flick, which is why it plunged 71%; If AVATR doesn't beat $7.5m, I'll eat my shirt. Novice Jan 05, 07:43

Let me explain it more clearly. Yes, yes. I know the genre differences between AVATAR and Prince of Egypt. Follow me here. Inigo Jan 05, 07:57

ha - had just posted identical analysis above; yeah, looking at prince of egypt, hard to see how it doesn't beat dark knight. {nm} mcreilly62 Jan 05, 07:59

This is a very good post, excellent info, thinking and analysis - big up! {nm} Toruk Facto Jan 05, 09:50

Excuse me? ? {nm} grammar Jan 05, 07:51

Show me a rational calculation where a $11 million Monday for Avatar leads to less than $533 million domestically. Inigo Jan 05, 08:05

Avatr Calcs Inside: (for what it's worth) :) grammar Jan 05, 08:19

I thought you had Monday at $7.5? And why the sharp dropoff on Wed/Thur? {nm} Novice Jan 05, 08:24

I have 2 different schedules .. one based on I am Legend and the other The Day After Tomorrow (which comes up to a delist of $415.69). grammar Jan 05, 08:28

You shouldn't be using schedules that don't fit. Avatar is a phenomenon that can't be compared to I am Legend or TDATomorrow Toruk Facto Jan 05, 09:14

Comparing the ultimate backloaded Avatar to two frontloaded films just doesn't make any sense. {nm} Antibody Jan 05, 10:00

Remind me when the actual numbers come out for Day 24, k. {nm} grammar Jan 05, 13:44

You expect Avatar to make more during a normal, non-summer, non-holiday workweek than the weekend? Inigo Jan 05, 08:26

When one is using daily historical percentages, the hope is that the week averages out to a close approximation of the actual numbers. Way grammar Jan 05, 08:34

No, I don't follow. If you can't be bothered with figuring out how films behave from day to day, you shouldn't be doing daily calculations. Inigo Jan 05, 08:39

You're new to these boards, aren't you? :) secretstalker Jan 05, 09:07

and LOL JMT Jan 05, 12:07

was meant to be under Secretstalkers post. thank you {nm} JMT Jan 05, 12:11

Hmm ... 15-May-2007 Jan 05, 07:48

Wait.. you don't think Avatar will beat TDK? You can't be serious..right? {nm} MiyazakiFan Jan 05, 09:13

I think the real question here is whether AVATR has a shot at surpassing Titanic {nm} bennyboy10 Jan 05, 08:07

Agreed. It's irrelevant whether AVATR beats TDK domestically as AVATR has taken more worldwide {nm} TheJman Jan 05, 08:24





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!

Ads disabled on hsx.com


Octet (OCTET) 150000 21.88 (+1.88)          Voltron (VOLTN) 150000 22.25 (-0.37)          Octet (OCTET) 100000 21.88 (+1.88)          American Son (AMRSN) 149999 0.04 (+0.02)          Parallel Tales (PRLLT) 150000 1.58 (-0.02)          Daniel: The Fiery Furnace (DANIL) 60000 5.00 (0.00)          Octet (OCTET) 150000 21.88 (+1.88)          Octet (OCTET) 150000 21.88 (+1.88)          Voltron (VOLTN) 150000 22.25 (-0.37)          Voltron (VOLTN) 149999 22.25 (-0.37)          Jack Ryan: Ghost War (RYAN1) 150000 7.86 (-0.21)          Jack Ryan: Ghost War (RYAN1) 149999 7.86 (-0.21)          Motor City (MTRCT) 150000 8.50 (+0.02)          Motor City (MTRCT) 149999 8.50 (+0.02)          Tony (TONY) 149992 17.46 (-0.07)          Tony (TONY) 149992 17.46 (-0.07)          Driver's Ed (DRVED) 150000 2.68 (+0.06)          Lorne (LORNE) 150000 0.97 (0.00)          Driver's Ed (DRVED) 149999 2.68 (+0.06)          Embers (EMBER) 150000 3.78 (+0.06)          Embers (EMBER) 149999 3.78 (+0.06)          The Catch (TCATC) 150000 63.76 (+0.54)          The Catch (TCATC) 150000 63.76 (+0.54)          Naruto (NARUT) 150000 17.49 (+0.07)          Naruto (NARUT) 149999 17.49 (+0.07)          Ma 2 (MA2) 150000 14.99 (+0.09)          Ma 2 (MA2) 149999 14.99 (+0.09)          Octet (OCTET) 149992 21.88 (+1.88)          Drummer Boy (DRUMB) 150000 10.08 (+0.15)          Octet (OCTET) 149991 21.88 (+1.88)          Drummer Boy (DRUMB) 149999 10.08 (+0.15)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 6.67 (+0.29)          Buddy (BUDDY) 149999 6.67 (+0.29)          White Elephant (WELEP) 150000 17.10 (+0.42)          White Elephant (WELEP) 149999 17.10 (+0.42)          Star Wars: The Mandalorian and G (SWAR3) 19492 195.82 (-0.97)          (Saint) Peter (STPET) 150000 5.91 (+0.94)          (Saint) Peter (STPET) 149999 5.91 (+0.94)          Fonda (FONDA) 150000 9.18 (+1.09)          Fonda (FONDA) 149999 9.18 (+1.09)          Olivia Holt (OHOLT) 24999 12.31 (-0.51)          The Man with the Bag (TMWTB) 150000 9.20 (-1.22)          Olivia Holt (OHOLT) 25000 12.31 (-0.51)          The Man with the Bag (TMWTB) 150000 9.20 (-1.22)          Lena Headey (LHEAD) 25000 7.84 (-6.63)          Lena Headey (LHEAD) 25000 7.84 (-6.63)          Jack Reynor (JREYN) 25000 17.36 (-0.93)          Jack Reynor (JREYN) 25000 17.36 (-0.93)          Tramell Tillman (TTILL) 25000 149.00 (0.00)          Octet (OCTET) 150000 21.88 (+1.88)