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It wouldn't be possible to be ARB or BRA on Day 1 because there won't have been any box office reported on Day 1

Posted by: secretstalker (a.k.a TheWeekendWarrior) on Jan 12, 20:10 in response to SPrasad2's post that makes sense--but why price them as arb on day 1?...

It could be THEORETICALLY bra after the opening weekend if the price is too high or low based on opening weekend but it can't be declared basted on 4-week projections

how are CX derivatives priced? SPrasad2 Jan 12, 18:50

when you figure that out, let me know mickpix Jan 12, 19:13

They IPO three months before the movie opens wide at the exact price of the movie stock. From there they move as any other stock. {nm} fourstars Jan 12, 19:23

That was the previous method. Starting today, they IPO at the same price as the equivalent on Cantor Exchange. {nm} Antibody Jan 12, 19:25

However, since they never adjust, the derivative can end up being way under or overpriced and ending up as an obvious ARB or BRA situation. {nm} fourstars Jan 12, 19:25

that makes sense--but why price them as arb on day 1? unless i'm missing something, all three IPOs today have ~$10 riskless spreads on them {nm} SPrasad2 Jan 12, 19:38

There isn't any arbitrage between MST and CX Derivatives, because their values are tied to box office, not to each other. {nm} Antibody Jan 12, 19:51

except that both have to delist at the same price, right? SPrasad2 Jan 12, 19:59

That's a fair point. The decision was made to mimic Cantor Exchange. {nm} Antibody Jan 12, 20:05

It wouldn't be possible to be ARB or BRA on Day 1 because there won't have been any box office reported on Day 1 secretstalker Jan 12, 20:10

the individual CX deriv isn't--but the spread certainly is an arb trade since the MST and CX must delist at the same price {nm} SPrasad2 Jan 12, 20:15

You'd have to come up with a different term for that... true, one or the other could be overpriced/underpriced secretstalker Jan 12, 20:27

except that the MST is both about adjust and delist. also, meant arb only in technical sense of riskless profit. SPrasad2 Jan 12, 20:38

this whole conversation is pointless, since Antibody said they are IPOing CX at Cantor Exchange prices, end of story ndmaster Jan 12, 20:58





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Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 39 454.27 (-0.25)          Eddington (EDNGT) 24999 16.84 (-0.36)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 900 89.12 (+0.16)          Eddington (EDNGT) 149999 16.84 (-0.36)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Superman (SUPRM) 149998 247.97 (-3.24)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Tangled (TANGL) 1 78.15 (+1.41)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 78.15 (+1.41)          The Moment (MOMNT) 1 15.84 (+2.05)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Tom Hanks (THANK) 25000 50.27 (-0.16)          Disney's Snow White (SNWHT) 150000 108.12 (-5.03)          Jack Champion (JCHAM) 25000 97.34 (-0.75)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Dominique Thorne (DTHOR) 25000 71.43 (-0.25)          Ben Mendelsohn (BMEND) 25000 66.50 (-0.25)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - 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Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 1 5.53 (-0.47)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 39 454.27 (-0.25)          Eddington (EDNGT) 24999 16.84 (-0.36)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 900 89.12 (+0.16)          Eddington (EDNGT) 149999 16.84 (-0.36)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Superman (SUPRM) 149998 247.97 (-3.24)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Tangled (TANGL) 1 78.15 (+1.41)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 78.15 (+1.41)          The Moment (MOMNT) 1 15.84 (+2.05)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Tom Hanks (THANK) 25000 50.27 (-0.16)          Disney's Snow White (SNWHT) 150000 108.12 (-5.03)          Jack Champion (JCHAM) 25000 97.34 (-0.75)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Dominique Thorne (DTHOR) 25000 71.43 (-0.25)          Ben Mendelsohn (BMEND) 25000 66.50 (-0.25)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 149999 14.58 (-0.40)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Bookie & the Bruiser (TBATB) 1 14.16 (+0.06)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 1 60.51 (-0.57)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 149999 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          & Sons (ASONS) 1 5.75 (+1.01)          Bear Country (BEARC) 1 14.75 (+0.76)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          By Any Means (CI34) 1 24.72 (-0.26)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          Clika (CLIKA) 1 14.62 (-0.13)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 3 (TCS53) 150000 12.15 (-0.29)          Eddington (EDNGT) 1 16.84 (-0.36)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 126544 264.42 (+16.30)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 1 8.37 (-0.90)          Fing (FING) 1 6.91 (+1.22)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 1 5.53 (-0.47)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 39 454.27 (-0.25)          Eddington (EDNGT) 24999 16.84 (-0.36)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 900 89.12 (+0.16)          Eddington (EDNGT) 149999 16.84 (-0.36)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Superman (SUPRM) 149998 247.97 (-3.24)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Tangled (TANGL) 1 78.15 (+1.41)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 78.15 (+1.41)          The Moment (MOMNT) 1 15.84 (+2.05)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Tom Hanks (THANK) 25000 50.27 (-0.16)          Disney's Snow White (SNWHT) 150000 108.12 (-5.03)          Jack Champion (JCHAM) 25000 97.34 (-0.75)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Dominique Thorne (DTHOR) 25000 71.43 (-0.25)          Ben Mendelsohn (BMEND) 25000 66.50 (-0.25)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 149999 14.58 (-0.40)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Bookie & the Bruiser (TBATB) 1 14.16 (+0.06)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 1 60.51 (-0.57)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 149999 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          & Sons (ASONS) 1 5.75 (+1.01)          Bear Country (BEARC) 1 14.75 (+0.76)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          By Any Means (CI34) 1 24.72 (-0.26)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          Clika (CLIKA) 1 14.62 (-0.13)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 3 (TCS53) 150000 12.15 (-0.29)          Eddington (EDNGT) 1 16.84 (-0.36)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 126544 264.42 (+16.30)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 1 8.37 (-0.90)          Fing (FING) 1 6.91 (+1.22)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 1 5.53 (-0.47)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 39 454.27 (-0.25)          Eddington (EDNGT) 24999 16.84 (-0.36)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 900 89.12 (+0.16)          Eddington (EDNGT) 149999 16.84 (-0.36)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Superman (SUPRM) 149998 247.97 (-3.24)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Tangled (TANGL) 1 78.15 (+1.41)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 78.15 (+1.41)          The Moment (MOMNT) 1 15.84 (+2.05)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Tom Hanks (THANK) 25000 50.27 (-0.16)          Disney's Snow White (SNWHT) 150000 108.12 (-5.03)          Jack Champion (JCHAM) 25000 97.34 (-0.75)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Dominique Thorne (DTHOR) 25000 71.43 (-0.25)          Ben Mendelsohn (BMEND) 25000 66.50 (-0.25)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 149999 14.58 (-0.40)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Bookie & the Bruiser (TBATB) 1 14.16 (+0.06)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 1 60.51 (-0.57)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 149999 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          & Sons (ASONS) 1 5.75 (+1.01)          Bear Country (BEARC) 1 14.75 (+0.76)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          By Any Means (CI34) 1 24.72 (-0.26)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          Clika (CLIKA) 1 14.62 (-0.13)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 3 (TCS53) 150000 12.15 (-0.29)          Eddington (EDNGT) 1 16.84 (-0.36)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 126544 264.42 (+16.30)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 1 8.37 (-0.90)          Fing (FING) 1 6.91 (+1.22)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 1 5.53 (-0.47)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 39 454.27 (-0.25)          Eddington (EDNGT) 24999 16.84 (-0.36)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 900 89.12 (+0.16)          Eddington (EDNGT) 149999 16.84 (-0.36)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Superman (SUPRM) 149998 247.97 (-3.24)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Tangled (TANGL) 1 78.15 (+1.41)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 78.15 (+1.41)          The Moment (MOMNT) 1 15.84 (+2.05)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Tom Hanks (THANK) 25000 50.27 (-0.16)          Disney's Snow White (SNWHT) 150000 108.12 (-5.03)          Jack Champion (JCHAM) 25000 97.34 (-0.75)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Dominique Thorne (DTHOR) 25000 71.43 (-0.25)          Ben Mendelsohn (BMEND) 25000 66.50 (-0.25)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 149999 14.58 (-0.40)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Bookie & the Bruiser (TBATB) 1 14.16 (+0.06)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 1 60.51 (-0.57)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 149999 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          & Sons (ASONS) 1 5.75 (+1.01)          Bear Country (BEARC) 1 14.75 (+0.76)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          By Any Means (CI34) 1 24.72 (-0.26)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          Clika (CLIKA) 1 14.62 (-0.13)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 3 (TCS53) 150000 12.15 (-0.29)          Eddington (EDNGT) 1 16.84 (-0.36)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 126544 264.42 (+16.30)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 1 8.37 (-0.90)          Fing (FING) 1 6.91 (+1.22)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 1 5.53 (-0.47)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 39 454.27 (-0.25)          Eddington (EDNGT) 24999 16.84 (-0.36)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 900 89.12 (+0.16)          Eddington (EDNGT) 149999 16.84 (-0.36)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Superman (SUPRM) 149998 247.97 (-3.24)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Tangled (TANGL) 1 78.15 (+1.41)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 78.15 (+1.41)          The Moment (MOMNT) 1 15.84 (+2.05)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Tom Hanks (THANK) 25000 50.27 (-0.16)          Disney's Snow White (SNWHT) 150000 108.12 (-5.03)          Jack Champion (JCHAM) 25000 97.34 (-0.75)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Dominique Thorne (DTHOR) 25000 71.43 (-0.25)          Ben Mendelsohn (BMEND) 25000 66.50 (-0.25)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 149999 14.58 (-0.40)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Bookie & the Bruiser (TBATB) 1 14.16 (+0.06)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 1 60.51 (-0.57)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 149999 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          & Sons (ASONS) 1 5.75 (+1.01)          Bear Country (BEARC) 1 14.75 (+0.76)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          By Any Means (CI34) 1 24.72 (-0.26)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          Clika (CLIKA) 1 14.62 (-0.13)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 3 (TCS53) 150000 12.15 (-0.29)          Eddington (EDNGT) 1 16.84 (-0.36)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 126544 264.42 (+16.30)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 1 8.37 (-0.90)          Fing (FING) 1 6.91 (+1.22)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 1 5.53 (-0.47)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 39 454.27 (-0.25)          Eddington (EDNGT) 24999 16.84 (-0.36)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 900 89.12 (+0.16)          Eddington (EDNGT) 149999 16.84 (-0.36)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Superman (SUPRM) 149998 247.97 (-3.24)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Eddington (EDNGT) 150000 16.84 (-0.36)          Tangled (TANGL) 1 78.15 (+1.41)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 78.15 (+1.41)          The Moment (MOMNT) 1 15.84 (+2.05)          The Moment (MOMNT) 150000 15.84 (+2.05)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          Tom Hanks (THANK) 25000 50.27 (-0.16)          Disney's Snow White (SNWHT) 150000 108.12 (-5.03)          Jack Champion (JCHAM) 25000 97.34 (-0.75)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Dominique Thorne (DTHOR) 25000 71.43 (-0.25)          Ben Mendelsohn (BMEND) 25000 66.50 (-0.25)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 1 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 149999 14.58 (-0.40)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Bookie & the Bruiser (TBATB) 1 14.16 (+0.06)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 1 60.51 (-0.57)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 149999 60.51 (-0.57)          Jay Kelly (JKELY) 150000 1.00 (0.00)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          & Sons (ASONS) 1 5.75 (+1.01)          Bear Country (BEARC) 1 14.75 (+0.76)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          By Any Means (CI34) 1 24.72 (-0.26)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 4.12 (+0.41)          Clika (CLIKA) 1 14.62 (-0.13)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 3 (TCS53) 150000 12.15 (-0.29)          Eddington (EDNGT) 1 16.84 (-0.36)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 126544 264.42 (+16.30)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          The Sims Movie (TSIMS) 150000 60.51 (-0.57)          Barbarella (BARBA) 150000 45.34 (+2.07)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 1 8.37 (-0.90)          Fing (FING) 1 6.91 (+1.22)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 14.58 (-0.40)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 1 5.53 (-0.47)