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Movies

I don't think The Blind Side will make it

Posted by: jsnruf on Jan 25, 12:53 in response to JMT's post Prediction of the 10 oscar nominations BEST PICTURE (...

...especially considering the generally soft reviews. Bullock will be its consolation prize.

 

Here's how I'd rank them. Sure bets:

1. The Hurt Locker

2. Precious

3. Inglourious Basterds

4. Avatar

5. Up in the Air

6. An Education

7. Up

 

Likely:

8. District 9

9. Invictus

 

Dark horse:

10. Crazy Heart (Jeff Daniels seems to be picking up steam as of late, possibly pushing this in)

11. A Serious Man





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A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 150000 86.00 (-0.70)          The Moment (MOMNT) 20000 12.91 (+2.91)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 6999 21.50 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 49132 99.86 (-9.70)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 188 453.81 (+0.75)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 7000 21.50 (0.00)          By Any Means (CI34) 20000 22.44 (-0.89)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 20.29 (-0.06)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 5641 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          The King of Kings H$10 Put (KOKNG.PU) 25000 1.94 (+0.04)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 150000 8.43 (-1.01)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 1000 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 377.72 (0.00)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 5.67 (+0.63)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 50001 99.86 (-9.70)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 382 205.03 (+5.50)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 600 13.03 (-0.08)          The Friend (FREND) 100000 5.67 (+0.63)          The Chosen: Last Supper - 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A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 150000 86.00 (-0.70)          The Moment (MOMNT) 20000 12.91 (+2.91)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 6999 21.50 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 49132 99.86 (-9.70)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 188 453.81 (+0.75)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 7000 21.50 (0.00)          By Any Means (CI34) 20000 22.44 (-0.89)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 20.29 (-0.06)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 5641 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          The King of Kings H$10 Put (KOKNG.PU) 25000 1.94 (+0.04)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 150000 8.43 (-1.01)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 1000 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 377.72 (0.00)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 5.67 (+0.63)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 50001 99.86 (-9.70)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 382 205.03 (+5.50)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 600 13.03 (-0.08)          The Friend (FREND) 100000 5.67 (+0.63)          The Chosen: Last Supper - 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A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 150000 86.00 (-0.70)          The Moment (MOMNT) 20000 12.91 (+2.91)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 6999 21.50 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 49132 99.86 (-9.70)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 188 453.81 (+0.75)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 7000 21.50 (0.00)          By Any Means (CI34) 20000 22.44 (-0.89)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 20.29 (-0.06)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 5641 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          The King of Kings H$10 Put (KOKNG.PU) 25000 1.94 (+0.04)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 150000 8.43 (-1.01)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 1000 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 377.72 (0.00)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 5.67 (+0.63)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 50001 99.86 (-9.70)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 382 205.03 (+5.50)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 600 13.03 (-0.08)          The Friend (FREND) 100000 5.67 (+0.63)          The Chosen: Last Supper - 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A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 150000 86.00 (-0.70)          The Moment (MOMNT) 20000 12.91 (+2.91)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 6999 21.50 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 49132 99.86 (-9.70)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 188 453.81 (+0.75)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 7000 21.50 (0.00)          By Any Means (CI34) 20000 22.44 (-0.89)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 20.29 (-0.06)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 5641 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          The King of Kings H$10 Put (KOKNG.PU) 25000 1.94 (+0.04)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 150000 8.43 (-1.01)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 1000 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 377.72 (0.00)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 5.67 (+0.63)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 50001 99.86 (-9.70)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 382 205.03 (+5.50)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 600 13.03 (-0.08)          The Friend (FREND) 100000 5.67 (+0.63)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Screamboat (SCMBT) 150000 3.46 (-0.32)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 5500 13.03 (-0.08)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Sikandar (SIKAN) 150000 2.90 (-0.07)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)          Tangled (TANGL) 25804 99.86 (-9.70)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)          & Sons (ASONS) 150000 5.60 (+0.78)          The Amateur H$10 Put (AMTUR.PU) 25000 1.37 (-0.09)          Bear Country (BEARC) 150000 14.27 (+1.31)          Thank You Very Much (TYVM) 692 0.78 (-0.03)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 15000 205.03 (+5.50)          The Woman in the Yard (TWITY) 6000 18.21 (-0.14)          Gundam (GUNDM) 150000 24.92 (-0.16)          The Fantastic Four: First Steps (FANF2) 90000 226.03 (+0.63)          The Woman in the Yard (TWITY) 500 18.21 (-0.14)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 150000 86.00 (-0.70)          The Moment (MOMNT) 20000 12.91 (+2.91)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 6999 21.50 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 49132 99.86 (-9.70)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 188 453.81 (+0.75)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 7000 21.50 (0.00)          By Any Means (CI34) 20000 22.44 (-0.89)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 20.29 (-0.06)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 5641 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          The King of Kings H$10 Put (KOKNG.PU) 25000 1.94 (+0.04)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 150000 8.43 (-1.01)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 1000 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 377.72 (0.00)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 5.67 (+0.63)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 50001 99.86 (-9.70)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 382 205.03 (+5.50)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 600 13.03 (-0.08)          The Friend (FREND) 100000 5.67 (+0.63)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Screamboat (SCMBT) 150000 3.46 (-0.32)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 5500 13.03 (-0.08)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Sikandar (SIKAN) 150000 2.90 (-0.07)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)          Tangled (TANGL) 25804 99.86 (-9.70)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)          & Sons (ASONS) 150000 5.60 (+0.78)          The Amateur H$10 Put (AMTUR.PU) 25000 1.37 (-0.09)          Bear Country (BEARC) 150000 14.27 (+1.31)          Thank You Very Much (TYVM) 692 0.78 (-0.03)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 15000 205.03 (+5.50)          The Woman in the Yard (TWITY) 6000 18.21 (-0.14)          Gundam (GUNDM) 150000 24.92 (-0.16)          The Fantastic Four: First Steps (FANF2) 90000 226.03 (+0.63)          The Woman in the Yard (TWITY) 500 18.21 (-0.14)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 150000 86.00 (-0.70)          The Moment (MOMNT) 20000 12.91 (+2.91)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 6999 21.50 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 49132 99.86 (-9.70)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 188 453.81 (+0.75)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 7000 21.50 (0.00)          By Any Means (CI34) 20000 22.44 (-0.89)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 20.29 (-0.06)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 5641 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          The King of Kings H$10 Put (KOKNG.PU) 25000 1.94 (+0.04)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 150000 8.43 (-1.01)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 1000 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 377.72 (0.00)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 5.67 (+0.63)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 50001 99.86 (-9.70)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 382 205.03 (+5.50)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 600 13.03 (-0.08)          The Friend (FREND) 100000 5.67 (+0.63)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Screamboat (SCMBT) 150000 3.46 (-0.32)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 5500 13.03 (-0.08)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Sikandar (SIKAN) 150000 2.90 (-0.07)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)          Tangled (TANGL) 25804 99.86 (-9.70)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)          & Sons (ASONS) 150000 5.60 (+0.78)          The Amateur H$10 Put (AMTUR.PU) 25000 1.37 (-0.09)          Bear Country (BEARC) 150000 14.27 (+1.31)          Thank You Very Much (TYVM) 692 0.78 (-0.03)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 15000 205.03 (+5.50)          The Woman in the Yard (TWITY) 6000 18.21 (-0.14)          Gundam (GUNDM) 150000 24.92 (-0.16)          The Fantastic Four: First Steps (FANF2) 90000 226.03 (+0.63)          The Woman in the Yard (TWITY) 500 18.21 (-0.14)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 150000 86.00 (-0.70)          The Moment (MOMNT) 20000 12.91 (+2.91)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 6999 21.50 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 49132 99.86 (-9.70)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 188 453.81 (+0.75)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 7000 21.50 (0.00)          By Any Means (CI34) 20000 22.44 (-0.89)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 20.29 (-0.06)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 5641 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          The King of Kings H$10 Put (KOKNG.PU) 25000 1.94 (+0.04)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 150000 8.43 (-1.01)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 1000 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 377.72 (0.00)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 5.67 (+0.63)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 50001 99.86 (-9.70)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 382 205.03 (+5.50)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 600 13.03 (-0.08)          The Friend (FREND) 100000 5.67 (+0.63)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Screamboat (SCMBT) 150000 3.46 (-0.32)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 5500 13.03 (-0.08)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Sikandar (SIKAN) 150000 2.90 (-0.07)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)          Tangled (TANGL) 25804 99.86 (-9.70)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)          & Sons (ASONS) 150000 5.60 (+0.78)          The Amateur H$10 Put (AMTUR.PU) 25000 1.37 (-0.09)          Bear Country (BEARC) 150000 14.27 (+1.31)          Thank You Very Much (TYVM) 692 0.78 (-0.03)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 15000 205.03 (+5.50)          The Woman in the Yard (TWITY) 6000 18.21 (-0.14)          Gundam (GUNDM) 150000 24.92 (-0.16)          The Fantastic Four: First Steps (FANF2) 90000 226.03 (+0.63)          The Woman in the Yard (TWITY) 500 18.21 (-0.14)          The Beatles - A Four-Film Cinema (BEAT1) 150000 86.00 (-0.70)          The Moment (MOMNT) 20000 12.91 (+2.91)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 6999 21.50 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 49132 99.86 (-9.70)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 188 453.81 (+0.75)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 1 (TCS51) 7000 21.50 (0.00)          By Any Means (CI34) 20000 22.44 (-0.89)          Gabby's Dollhouse: The Movie (GABYD) 150000 20.29 (-0.06)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 5641 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          The Penguin Lessons (PNGLS) 2000 2.86 (0.00)          The King of Kings H$10 Put (KOKNG.PU) 25000 1.94 (+0.04)          Epiphany (EPHNY) 150000 8.43 (-1.01)          A Minecraft Movie - Opening Week (MINEC.OW) 1000 89.32 (+3.26)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Spider-Man: Brand New Day (SPID9) 100 377.72 (0.00)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          The Friend (FREND) 150000 5.67 (+0.63)          A Working Man (LEVON) 4999 33.95 (0.00)          Tangled (TANGL) 50001 99.86 (-9.70)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 382 205.03 (+5.50)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Warfare (WARFR) 150000 30.41 (-0.38)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Hell of a Summer (HOSUM) 150000 6.99 (-0.48)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 600 13.03 (-0.08)          The Friend (FREND) 100000 5.67 (+0.63)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Screamboat (SCMBT) 150000 3.46 (-0.32)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          The Chosen: Last Supper - Part 2 (TCS52) 150000 16.85 (+0.29)          Death Of A Unicorn (DUNIC) 5500 13.03 (-0.08)          Tangled (TANGL) 150000 99.86 (-9.70)          Sikandar (SIKAN) 150000 2.90 (-0.07)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)          Tangled (TANGL) 25804 99.86 (-9.70)          The Luckiest Man in America (PLUCK) 150000 5.15 (+0.48)          Audrey’s Children (AUDRC) 999 0.14 (-0.01)