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though Disney is on a roll right now, they better brace themselves for Alice 2. IMO here's why...
I touched on this with JPV last week, but after seeing the performance of Huntsman 2, there is cause for major concern.
1. let's start with the fact this is a sequel few people asked for. the original pulled the wool over fans eyes blinded by the Alice property being live action, with mega star Depp playing the perfect role for his chops as Mad Hatter. fans were excited to see him put in a Sparrow like performance here, but that just didn't happen.
when they got to the theater, they instead watched a war film that barely resembled the childhood movie they had grown up adoring.
2. so you might be saying, the proof is in the pudding. it had an $116M OW, $334M Domestic and $1.025B in total. this is true, but I can explain these numbers. the opening weekend fell on what is becoming a sure thing for family films... the first weekend of March. winter is coming to an end, people are starting to come out of their homes and there's just no major sporting events going on at the time to distract.
then the following next 5 weeks more and more kids/college students are getting off for spring break in stages. this really inflates the weekdays numbers.
there were no films in theaters at the time of opening that took away from the movie. Percy Jackson was in it's 4th weekend and only made $5M at the time of opening. in Alices 3rd weekend, Wimpy Kid opened to a respectable $22M, but not enough to derail Alice from the throne for 3 weekends in a row.
so from 3/5 - 3/18, Alice had no direct competition and Spring Break crowds supporting it's daily run. it was at $231M by the time Wimpy hit and $275M by the time Train Your Dragon came to theaters in it's 4th weekend.
my point being that until it's 4th weekend it had direct access to audiences against films of little to no competition. it was a movie the entire family could go see that kids and grandparents could both relate as far as subject material. the bad WOM didn't really travel as fast 6 years ago, in 2010. social media wasn't near what it is now. FB was just reaching 500M users and Twitter's breakout year had just started.
the world we live in today, reviews mostly make or break your movie. this especially has a huge impact on big budget films. though painful, much harder to cripple an independent film that may have cost $5M all in vs the financial comparison to one that cost $200M, only to have social media tank your OW.
enter The Huntsman...
3. though it's Universal, people relate Snow White to Disney. the first film came out 4 years ago and has many similarities to Alice. it's a live action, "Disney" property, with a battlefield storyline and the female empowerment of poor little Snow White.
the film over-performed. it opened to $56M+ and went on to almost make 3x it's opening weekend. it had nearly identical Rotten Tomatoes numbers (Alice 52% critics, 55% audience vs Huntsman 48% critics, 52% audience).
I will argue that in these past 4 years audiences have tired of dark, fairy tale like properties that focus solely on war. blame some of this on The Hobbit. the genre is played out which is why Warcraft is going to have its hands full (that and the CGI looks bad).
look what happened to Huntsman. from $56M OW to maybe less than $20M OW. with poor reviews, Alice is headed down the same underperformance road. I have a hard time believing critics are going to favor this film. most don't like sequels, because it's difficult to do them justice.
so add together that...
1. few people asked for this sequel.
+
2. this is opening in a crowded summer (not Spring) against an XMen movie that is shaping up to possibly be it's best of the the rebooted franchise. a week later Turtles opens and two weeks after that Dory.
+
3. critics are most likely going to trash the film. as a result, social media will help in its demise.
the good news for the film is it's opening Memorial Day weekend. going to be hard to call a 4 day number before reviews trickle in. let's just say that with bad reviews, I can see this opening as low as $55M over the 4day and $130M total run domestic. remember it's multiplier is 2.2x for a reason.
should the film have reviews come in slightly better than the first, I think $75M is the ceiling for the 4day and $180M total run domestic.
highly anticipating first set of reviews to come in.
hope this helps and remember, all just my little old opinion.
lobo
though Disney is on a roll right now, they better brace themselves for Alice 2. IMO here's why... Apr 23, 07:45
one things I didn't touch on is that a bad domestic performance doesn't eqaute to a flop. this could do well overseas Apr 23, 07:56
I saw Force Awakens in iMax3D and LOVED it, then revisited RealD and it was a awful as I remembered Apr 23, 10:34
Spot-on analysis, and I'm inclined to agree with your projections. {nm} Apr 23, 07:56
thank you Rick (and Morty). {nm} Apr 23, 08:01
I can see where you are coming from but I think alice and huntsman are world's apart, branding-wise... Apr 23, 08:10
that's certainly a good point. probably had some affect on the sequels box office take. but I think nostalgia in Alice's case Apr 23, 08:20
think about this and more on Burton... Apr 23, 08:49
A good result settles strategy questions, but it seems audiences weren't interested in a sequel focused on invented graft. Apr 23, 08:57
very well said gary {nm} Apr 23, 09:17
Imagine a movie called "Aspartame: Origins." First there's a substitution, and now we're supposed to care about the sub. :) Apr 23, 09:25
ha, yes! and as far as sequels nobody asked for, I don't necessarily fault Disney if the films fails for Apr 23, 10:06
The current. . . Apr 23, 10:21
If SHRK2 and "The Day After Tomorrow" can do 96M and 86M three-day in 2004, I have to think XMEN6 and ALCN2 have room in 2016. Apr 23, 10:42
But who knows if ALCN2 has any merits. {nm} Apr 23, 10:43
also, on Shreks 2nd weekend! shows how you open a sequel correctly. Apr 23, 10:55
Plus it has all the Pistol & Boo 'War On Terrier' Publicity going for it. {nm} Apr 23, 08:21
Off with their heads... Apr 23, 08:29
... Apr 23, 08:32
... Apr 23, 08:55
Agree 100% {nm} Apr 23, 08:32
I'm with you on this. Plus Disney marketing Will let this drop fast after OW nrs... Nemo2 is coming {nm} Apr 23, 09:03
Also : my compliments on the analysis... This site gets better everyday tnks to players like you :-) {nm} Apr 23, 09:16
thank you kindly. {nm} Apr 23, 09:17
Ditto. {nm} Apr 23, 09:42
I have to say, I disagree, and I will see this movie solely to see ARICK as the caterpillar. Apr 23, 10:09
your opinion is valid. what would you qualify as a success for this film? I'm willing to accept that Apr 23, 10:20
okay, that's fair. not to be doom and gloom, but let me lay out why I think even $75M OW would be a failure (domestically)... Apr 23, 12:00
i really think this one flops ... hated the first one ... this one looks worse {nm} Apr 23, 10:50
one great barometer I use for my assessments are local buzz and that starts in my home. Apr 23, 11:01
Lobogotti's mamabaro :-) {nm} Apr 23, 11:12
if mama ain't happy... ;) {nm} Apr 23, 11:13
well, you touch on it, but its actually the main reason this movie exists: first one did 2/3 of its business internationally Apr 23, 12:29
the first film wasnt even released in china and still did almost $700mil {nm} Apr 23, 12:33
speaks to Depps starpower. impressive numbers all around. {nm} Apr 23, 12:40
yes, hard for me estimate what a failure is for them. I can only speculate in comparison to the first Apr 23, 12:52
i just dont know enough about international audiences to even speculate. {nm} Apr 23, 12:58
I know even less than you. {nm} Apr 23, 13:06
I agreed with everything except Apr 23, 16:06
fair enough. I will say they are marketing it well. awareness has to be off the charts, as I see ti everywhere. Apr 23, 17:37
My concern from the trailers is that it's going to be more Last Stand than Days of Future Past quality wise Apr 24, 04:20