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okay, that's fair. not to be doom and gloom, but let me lay out why I think even $75M OW would be a failure (domestically)...
The first film made $116M OW and $334M domestic. not a great multiplier, but a huge take overall. matter of fact, the 37th biggest domestic gross of all time. probably will be 39th by the time it opens (maybe even 40 if BvS can outperform from here).
at $75M OW for a 4day memorial weekend, the best it could hope for domestically is $180M. and that would really be pushing it. factor in Turtles open the next weekend and Dory two after, this is going to get crushed in the long haul.
sequels typically are expected to open larger than the original. and in most cases they do. at the very least they are expected to open somewhat close to the original. there are countless examples of this.
now I'm putting the cart before the horse, but should the sequel do half or, little more or less than half the original box office take, that's not typical. even a $90M OW would put it over $100M less domestically overall than the first.
the budget on this is $200M, like the original. it means they'll probably throw $75M on marketing, like the original. that's a huge hole that they'll require foreign to dig them out of.
all that being said, it's just my opinion and only specualtion as to why I think it's quite possible this severely underperforms off the first.
thanks for the feedback.
though Disney is on a roll right now, they better brace themselves for Alice 2. IMO here's why... Apr 23, 07:45
one things I didn't touch on is that a bad domestic performance doesn't eqaute to a flop. this could do well overseas Apr 23, 07:56
I saw Force Awakens in iMax3D and LOVED it, then revisited RealD and it was a awful as I remembered Apr 23, 10:34
Spot-on analysis, and I'm inclined to agree with your projections. {nm} Apr 23, 07:56
thank you Rick (and Morty). {nm} Apr 23, 08:01
I can see where you are coming from but I think alice and huntsman are world's apart, branding-wise... Apr 23, 08:10
that's certainly a good point. probably had some affect on the sequels box office take. but I think nostalgia in Alice's case Apr 23, 08:20
think about this and more on Burton... Apr 23, 08:49
A good result settles strategy questions, but it seems audiences weren't interested in a sequel focused on invented graft. Apr 23, 08:57
very well said gary {nm} Apr 23, 09:17
Imagine a movie called "Aspartame: Origins." First there's a substitution, and now we're supposed to care about the sub. :) Apr 23, 09:25
ha, yes! and as far as sequels nobody asked for, I don't necessarily fault Disney if the films fails for Apr 23, 10:06
The current. . . Apr 23, 10:21
If SHRK2 and "The Day After Tomorrow" can do 96M and 86M three-day in 2004, I have to think XMEN6 and ALCN2 have room in 2016. Apr 23, 10:42
But who knows if ALCN2 has any merits. {nm} Apr 23, 10:43
also, on Shreks 2nd weekend! shows how you open a sequel correctly. Apr 23, 10:55
Plus it has all the Pistol & Boo 'War On Terrier' Publicity going for it. {nm} Apr 23, 08:21
Off with their heads... Apr 23, 08:29
... Apr 23, 08:32
... Apr 23, 08:55
Agree 100% {nm} Apr 23, 08:32
I'm with you on this. Plus Disney marketing Will let this drop fast after OW nrs... Nemo2 is coming {nm} Apr 23, 09:03
Also : my compliments on the analysis... This site gets better everyday tnks to players like you :-) {nm} Apr 23, 09:16
thank you kindly. {nm} Apr 23, 09:17
Ditto. {nm} Apr 23, 09:42
I have to say, I disagree, and I will see this movie solely to see ARICK as the caterpillar. Apr 23, 10:09
your opinion is valid. what would you qualify as a success for this film? I'm willing to accept that Apr 23, 10:20
okay, that's fair. not to be doom and gloom, but let me lay out why I think even $75M OW would be a failure (domestically)... Apr 23, 12:00
i really think this one flops ... hated the first one ... this one looks worse {nm} Apr 23, 10:50
one great barometer I use for my assessments are local buzz and that starts in my home. Apr 23, 11:01
Lobogotti's mamabaro :-) {nm} Apr 23, 11:12
if mama ain't happy... ;) {nm} Apr 23, 11:13
well, you touch on it, but its actually the main reason this movie exists: first one did 2/3 of its business internationally Apr 23, 12:29
the first film wasnt even released in china and still did almost $700mil {nm} Apr 23, 12:33
speaks to Depps starpower. impressive numbers all around. {nm} Apr 23, 12:40
yes, hard for me estimate what a failure is for them. I can only speculate in comparison to the first Apr 23, 12:52
i just dont know enough about international audiences to even speculate. {nm} Apr 23, 12:58
I know even less than you. {nm} Apr 23, 13:06
I agreed with everything except Apr 23, 16:06
fair enough. I will say they are marketing it well. awareness has to be off the charts, as I see ti everywhere. Apr 23, 17:37
My concern from the trailers is that it's going to be more Last Stand than Days of Future Past quality wise Apr 24, 04:20