HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
it's not at all the same as before.
Before pre-open you look at the price & compare it to 2.7, long or short based on that.
The post OW, you assess its adjusted price to expected legs and make a second play on it.
Also, while the movie may not have hit 2.7 in 4 weeks (yet made it to 2.7 or greater in weeks 5, 6, 7, or 8) you were still able to cash in on profitable title.
Now, we have to try and disregard OW, set our 4 week projection and hope the other players dont overeact to the OW figures.
THR: Prerelease tracking suggests [SOYLF] will debut to $16 million; [ALLID] $20 million over Thanksgiving weekend. Nov 04, 09:34
well that's way off. {nm} Nov 04, 09:41
You don't know that. It' s "being sold as a smart adult drama" in 2200 theaters. {nm} Nov 04, 09:44
Exactly. There is no way to value a MovieStock anymore. {nm} Nov 04, 10:28
The price of a MovieStock reflects the film's potential domestic box office during its first four weeks of wide release. {nm} Nov 04, 10:30
How are we supposed to value that potential in advance? Is there tracking for first 4-week potential? Other info sources? {nm} Nov 04, 10:33
The same way as before, look at similar films in the past. {nm} Nov 04, 10:39
You can stil use OW BO vs 4-weekend total of similar films for comps. {nm} Nov 04, 10:48
OW BO is now pretty much irrelevant. {nm} Nov 04, 11:23
Disagree, you can still compare the OW to similar films. {nm} Nov 04, 11:31
Who cares what a movie does OW anymore, it's all about how much you think it will make in the 4 week run. Nov 04, 11:39
You use the OW to figure out what it's gonna make in 4 weeks by comparing similar films. {nm} Nov 04, 11:40
No i compare what its going to make in 4 weeks by comparing it to what other movies made in 4 weeks. SMH {nm} Nov 04, 11:47
And you get the 4 weeks by comparing the OW * multiplier of similar films . You're doing it without knowing it, {nm} Nov 04, 11:52
Now all we have to think about from date of IPO, is where will it be on day 24. Nov 04, 11:53
* (referencing the adrenalin112 post directly above mine) {nm} Nov 04, 14:25
I would much rather have expected front loaded movies receive a smaller multiplier. i.e. 2.0-2.2 for 50shades {nm} Nov 04, 11:26
That's a judgement call. {nm} Nov 04, 11:33
Imagine the outcry if a film adjusted 2.0 delisted at 2.7. {nm} Nov 04, 11:39
Nah, that's a big time leg bonus Nov 04, 11:45
Big adjust means the HSX prediction was way off. {nm} Nov 04, 11:48
That would be kinda awesome IMO. Nov 04, 11:46
No, it means the HSX OW multiplier was off...most movies instantly move one way or the other after adjust... Nov 04, 11:51
I mean, next Justice League can sit at 4 week expected at $500M Nov 04, 11:54
It HSX traders are playing the multiplier, than the HSX price is way off. {nm} Nov 04, 11:55
They can be way off either way - at least one way lets them make money twice... {nm} Nov 04, 11:58
As I've said this many times, these artifical spikes or dips skews the HSX data. {nm} Nov 04, 12:01
It's skewed with a 4 week arbitrary cutoff anyway {nm} Nov 04, 12:01
Which works against animated, original, older female, and older skewing movies... {nm} Nov 04, 12:02
Just 2016 Big Movies... Nov 04, 12:06
Huh? It's been 4 weeks for nearly 20 years. {nm} Nov 04, 12:03
Do you want us to value total box office possible for a movie...or its opening weekend - 4 weeks is dumb either way... {nm} Nov 04, 12:08
The actual box office at 4 weeks is NOT an arbitrary number. Estimated Opening Weekend * 2.7 IS an arbitrary number. {nm} Nov 04, 12:09
The time frame (as I showed above in many big time movies this year) is arbitary - why not 1 week, or 12 like limiteds... Nov 04, 12:12
Yes, being the same way for 20 years means that the 4 week cutoff should also be reviewed. {nm} Nov 04, 12:51
Please give us a commision free day before this happens Nov 06, 08:45
it's not at all the same as before. Nov 04, 11:32
Have a look at my post on the Players Board {nm} Nov 04, 11:40
+1 {nm} Nov 04, 10:58
That was for antibody's post. Im not understanding what everyones issue is with the value of the stock. Nov 04, 11:01
Your "+1" adds nothing to the conversation, nor does your solution to my "issue" which is "make your own judgement". {nm} Nov 04, 11:26
i feel that playing the players is going to be a bigger factor than ever, many are going to short like business as usual Nov 04, 11:28
Which would make HSX less predictive not more predictive {nm} Nov 04, 13:39
Showing huge ratings from critics and customers alike so far. If this does less than $25m I will be very surprised {nm} Nov 08, 13:36
