HSX Forum

Movies

One idea I've been thinking of is essentially flipping the moviestocks and the OWs.

Posted by: RogerMore on Dec 29, 08:28 in response to shadowking's post Side games can be a fun addition, but it doesn't solve...

Price moviestocks at traders' expectations of the OW ($1 million at the box office = H$1), and cash them out on Monday after OW based on actuals.

Price movie warrants at what traders expect them to have earned after 4 weekends ($1M BO = H$1), and cash them out as you would a delist. IPO them well in advance - when their release date is scheduled, or maybe when there is a trailer, but several months before release.

The higher price of the movie warrants = greater gains = traders will be more interested in playing them than the OWs. (At least in theory)  IPOing earlier means more time for the warrant price to be determined by the market rather than the IPO price.

There are obviously issues though. How would limited releases be treated? Transitioning to this sort of system would effectively divide the value of moviestocks held by more than half - moviestocks would be much cheaper, and there would be at most 100 movie warrants.  Less value in the movie-related securities = more trading in bonds and other markets, which is not what HSX wants.

So I'm not sure this would be a viable option.

For tinkering options, I think moving the OW IPOs out to an earlier date is a good suggestion, and doubling the shares that can be held would also help, but these are band aids.

Suggestions for new Contests and Games lobogotti Dec 28, 06:34

also, this gives other traders the opportunity to be recognized on a regular... the way people are recognized on Kaigee lobogotti Dec 28, 06:41

people are leaving and many left are frustrated, so maybe a suit from cantor could get in here and at least tell us whats up islander Dec 28, 06:49

there's no doubt. it's very apparent. I hope for the same. {nm} lobogotti Dec 28, 06:59

It's the holidays. Don't expect anything real soon {nm} JMT-NL Dec 28, 08:16

Players have become dependent on the adjust as a measuring stick for success. {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 08:55

History says both Sing and Assassin's Creed are under-priced, people aren't comfortable with no adjust... so both prices are unstable. {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 08:52

They would have been even more underpriced if they had adjusted under the old rules. {nm} Antibody Dec 28, 09:05

Haha... You're a card. Direct question: what is your feeling about these postings with suggestions for the site ? {nm} JMT-NL Dec 28, 09:11

Good suggestions, some better than others. We know the site and demographics are aging. We need to attract more players. {nm} Antibody Dec 28, 09:22

I think you can by adopting some games/contests. make it a tad more social and give reason for people to conversate. lobogotti Dec 28, 10:53

Nedding more players is not your problem... Chimpmuck Dec 28, 11:16

I bet there is more than just a "small number" of very active users. I would ventue to guess lots of smaller ports are very active. RollingThunder Dec 28, 11:34

An official app for Android and iPhone could pull players from the mobile app markets. {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 11:21

Speaking nothing of the logistics of creating such an app, this would absolutely attract new players. RollingThunder Dec 28, 11:29

What's the business model though? Unless you' {nm} RogerMore Dec 28, 11:56

... you've got a way of funding the development and support of an app, it's not going to happen. And the usual business models - pay-to-play RogerMore Dec 28, 11:58

Ad supported apps are where it's at. You can't think of any advertising possibilities for a game centered on movie predictions. Honestly? {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 16:34

Yep, no market would ever target a pool of people with a vested interest in movies, television shows, and actors... ;-) {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 16:39

How much advertising does HSX attract now? {nm} RogerMore Dec 28, 20:46

or maybe keeping the current players & bringing the thousands of inactive ones back somehow {nm} adrenalin112 Dec 28, 11:31

I just assumed there is enough historical data to tweak the multiplier for holiday weekends and early week openers, improving accuracy.. {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 11:24

Lobo=MVP :) {nm} tomcat90 Dec 28, 07:41

You probably need to stick to the predictive market aspect of the game, rather than build games along side it Moviesnob Dec 28, 11:58

Yep - as you (lobo) said in your OP, the opening weekend is everything, so the focus should be on that. I don't see the player interest in RogerMore Dec 28, 12:00

I'm curious if you've played around with your data and if you have thoughts about a simple adjust multiple that is better than 2.7? Moviesnob Dec 28, 12:10

I haven't played around with it - but the game needs to be simple. I don't think rules that give different multipliers for different types RogerMore Dec 28, 12:18

hmm, i wonder why its skewing their data then. {nm} Moviesnob Dec 28, 12:54

I think because multipliers are diverging - blockbuster movies have increasingly shorter legs, other movies have longer, so it averages out. RogerMore Dec 28, 13:09

yeah, that makes sense. but if the delist is really causing people to leave, then whats the common ground? Moviesnob Dec 28, 13:46

I don't think there are any easy answers here - otherwise we'd already have a solution. {nm} RogerMore Dec 28, 20:45

you could build a contest prediciting the 4 week multiplier from OW as well. {nm} lobogotti Dec 28, 13:40

thats what HSX is relying on - that players will account for OW & the 4 week multiplier but the feedback is that they cant or dont want to {nm} Moviesnob Dec 28, 13:56

maybe HSX crafts a survey with many options and allows users to vote on one, some or all options. {nm} lobogotti Dec 28, 14:05

maybe, but i have yet to see an idea presented that, in my opinion, gives HSX the data they needs using the market HSX built. Moviesnob Dec 28, 14:58

Perhaps this has been discussed before, but how did the adjust compromise HSX's ability to generate pre-OW data? {nm} second gary Dec 28, 19:08

HSX seems to be most interested in predicting how much money a movie will make over 4 weekends. But moviestock prices were based on the RogerMore Dec 28, 20:44

Then stocks should be OW only priced...and derivatives should handle projected 4 week BO TwoMisfits Dec 29, 14:20

Side games can be a fun addition, but it doesn't solve the main problem shadowking Dec 28, 12:50

Upping the stakes for the OW 's sounds ok to me. Maybe topping the normal stocks at the same time JMT-NL Dec 29, 01:27

One idea I've been thinking of is essentially flipping the moviestocks and the OWs. RogerMore Dec 29, 08:28

thank you for the word you've put into these - thursday midnights contest sounds particularly interesting {nm} daveart Dec 28, 13:24





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


The Beatles (BEAT1) 149999 83.52 (+8.51)          Ian McKellen (IMCKE) 20000 33.09 (-1.39)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 649 266.75 (+0.23)          Hugh Jackman (HJACK) 10000 49.70 (+0.10)          The Authority (AUTHO) 25 33.24 (-0.10)          Dear Santa (DSATA) 150000 0.52 (-0.19)          The Matrix 5 (MTRX5) 20000 35.35 (+0.27)          The Mandalorian & Grogu (SWAR3) 10000 218.38 (-0.83)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 75000 282.48 (+1.21)          Mufasa: The Lion King (LION2) 50000 303.90 (+1.50)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 83.52 (+8.51)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 83.52 (+8.51)          Wicked (WICKD) 100000 309.99 (+4.09)          Wicked (WICKD) 10000 309.99 (+4.09)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 38000 132.94 (+0.02)          Green Hornet and Kato (GHKTO) 25000 13.08 (-0.08)          Flow (FLOW) 150000 6.26 (+4.01)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 30000 44.20 (-1.94)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 100000 169.49 (+0.81)          Idris Elba (IELBA) 1000 83.67 (+0.51)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 50000 167.30 (-3.20)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 25000 38.28 (+0.44)          The Wager (WAGER) 15000 24.87 (-0.02)          The Wager (WAGER) 145000 24.87 (-0.02)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 38.28 (+0.44)          Untitled Lee Cronin Project (ULCRO) 25000 36.77 (-0.04)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 38.28 (+0.44)          They Will Kill You (TWKYU) 50000 17.00 (-0.02)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 45000 44.20 (-1.94)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 50000 44.20 (-1.94)          The Man with the Bag (TMWTB) 45000 26.18 (-0.13)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 105000 44.20 (-1.94)          The Drama (TDRAM) 25000 18.82 (-0.27)          Famous (FAMOS) 100000 20.23 (-0.02)          The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (TBCPE) 15000 28.90 (+1.08)          The Best Christmas Pageant Ever (TBCPE) 45000 28.90 (+1.08)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 55000 44.20 (-1.94)          The Legend of Ochi (LOCHI) 40000 15.38 (+0.15)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 10000 39.84 (-0.19)          Ocean's 14 (OCEN5) 15000 37.14 (-0.05)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 140000 14.44 (+1.63)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 20000 75.27 (-1.56)          The Lord of the Rings: The War o (LOTR4) 5000 63.09 (-0.12)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 15000 75.27 (-1.56)          The Pinkerton (PNKRT) 20000 12.81 (-0.14)          Song Sung Blues (SSBLU) 150000 21.21 (+0.08)          The Hand That Rocks the Cradle (HTRTC) 15000 23.71 (+0.05)          Moana 2 - Opening Weekend Wed-Su (MOAN2.OW) 100000 140.27 (+0.25)          Wicked (WICKD) 350 309.99 (+4.09)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 83.52 (+8.51)