HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
lets do some math to help you understand, inside
So Guardians is currently projected to have an opening weekend between 140 and 150 million. That is huge. But as far as this game is concerned, we want to project what the movie will do over its first 4 weeks. We do that by comparing it to other films, and since this is a Marvel film, lets use other Marvel films.
The last one was Dr. Strange. It opened to $85M, and did about $206M through 4 weeks. So if we divide $206 by $85 we get about 2.4. This is what we call a multiplier. Lets use that for Guardians...140 * 2.4 = $336, and 150*2.4 = 360. So, if Guardians 2 performs like Dr. Strange did, (and assuming these early projections are reasonably close), then Guardians 2 should make around 336-360M over 4 weeks. Now look at where Guardians 2 is priced at. Do you see why traders are making the stock move the way it is?
But lets look a bit further. The last 6 Marvel Cinematic Universe films have had the following multipliers:
2.4 for Strange
2.1 for Civil War
2.6 for Antman
2.2 for Ultron
2.7 for Guardians 1
and 2.4 for Winter Soldier
so the range is really very wide. Using those multipliers and these early estimates, Guardians 2 could make anywhere from $294M (140*2.1) all the way up to $405M! (150*2.7). So its really just a guessing game at this point. As updated numbers come in, traders will re-analyze and make position changes as needed.
DL: I am Groot...53-50/140 May 05, 12:24
*sorry...Friday was 53-60 {nm} May 05, 12:27
Ultimate precision. {nm} May 05, 12:28
Ha ha... so true. {nm} May 05, 12:55
Also, it's 140+ {nm} May 05, 12:36
THR: big numbers Fri, / $140 million-$150 million May 05, 12:32
V: $150 million May 05, 12:34
I shouldn't have chickened out. {nm} May 05, 14:55
I don't understand why the stock is falling. The estimates for the total weekend are massive! May 05, 17:53
lets do some math to help you understand, inside May 05, 19:58
One can also note that the higher end of the scale is first movies, the lower end is sequels May 05, 20:03
agree, case in point: of the 8 wide release live action sequels so far this year, only john wick 2 exceded a 2.4 mult {nm} May 05, 20:21
Also, compare legs of Marvel movies that opened the first weekend in May vs at other times (spring, mid-summer, November) {nm} May 06, 09:00
