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I concede that the LA Times prediction is making me a bit uncertain. :)
... but yes, I can imagine RBNHD doing less than 35M this weekend. There are careless moments in the trailers which look baldly derivative, and I think those kind of moments can hurt a film's prospects among fence-sitters. I suddenly wish that I had read Gladwell's book "Blink," about judgement and intuition. Movie trailers would seem an obvious topic for him, and I think trailers can win or lose our allegiance very quickly.
My "factors":
1. Soft tracking (i.e. 35-45), which would likely hold down the risk of being wrong, or rather, reduce the likely penalty for being wrong.
2. Remakes and reboots are good; but derivative is bad. This feels derivative (repairing of director and star), a topic with no special urgency. "Saving Friar Braveheart": "A Robin Hood for our time." Uh, no thanks. Epic opportunistic kitsch however well-made, the well-made remaining to be seen.
3. I liked "Kingdom of Heaven." And this is... different? Other? Better? How?
4. A medieval special-effects palette. No space, no robots, no lasers.
Gut Checks .. Long LJULT.. short the rest ;-) {nm} May 14, 00:12
Ditto {nm} May 14, 00:22
You've been wrong so often lately, I've lost all faith I had in you :-) May 14, 02:04
So basically we're looking at three longs this weekend. Iron Man 2's drop will be a little higher than many here suspect. May 14, 01:15
Short RBNHD only {nm} May 14, 01:37
long LETTERS and short ROBIN {nm} May 14, 02:04
My gut tells me to long JUSTW, short LJULT and short RBNHD because... May 14, 02:33
Hmm.. Actually, first correction comes from myself: This movie IS long. Much longer than I thought, with its 140 minutes. May 14, 03:25
Long LJULT and JUSTW, short KCOST... er... CELWE... er... SCONN... er... EFLYN... er, what's his name. {nm} May 14, 05:52
People are once again voluntarily waltzing into the abbatoire.. My (final) take on it ;-) May 14, 06:10
Ok, make that "less than 13M" - sloppy thinking on the first one {nm} May 14, 06:26
I concede that the LA Times prediction is making me a bit uncertain. :) May 14, 06:56
In "The Two Towers," there is a CG-shot during the battle which breaks out on the exodus towards Helm's Deep... May 14, 07:18
Yeah, that Omaha Beach comparison... Well, in any event May 14, 07:25
Longed LJULT and RBNHD. Shorted JUSTW (not mentally ill). :) {nm} May 14, 08:54
Long RBNHD & Short JUSTW {nm} May 14, 03:18
Agreed... Same here. {nm} May 14, 03:49
And just for that... I"m reversing my position on all :) {nm} May 14, 04:22
I actually saw this one coming :-) May 14, 04:32
I concur {nm} May 14, 07:55
short LJULT, long JUSTW, no play RBNHD - may have already made all the H$ i wanna risk on that one... {nm} May 14, 07:59
Longed the lot of'em. Feeling reeeeally optimistic today... {nm} May 14, 08:42