HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
Long FUNYP & ANATC, Short COLCT
Funny People: I think all the promotion this week makes 'Funny People' the choice for both the "thinking moviegoer" as well as "date night" and "apatow fans". I think the laughs you'll get from the stars will outweigh the possibly heavy subject matter. If there's a group that can make cancer funny, this might be it. I predict a $30M+ opening.
Aliens In The Attic: I looked at comparables from this summer and the lowest was G-Force with $41M. If you take into account the kids who saw GF last weekend, the fact that it is summer and ridiculously hot in most parts of the country, short runtime, etc. it makes for a "sensible family flick" and it's wide release almost guarantees a $15M+ open (realize that's less than half what G-Force did).
The Collector: I'm staying away from COLCT. A $5M opening would put it just past it's current trading price of $13.49 (7-31-09, 12:30am PT). Then I thought that even with that total, combined with it's low wide-release theater count (1,325) that whomever thinks "I'll see The Collector" will most likely seek out "Funny People" instead (teens, adults 18-49, apatow fans). I predict a sub $5M opening weekend and a Monday dump session like no other.
LONG: [FUNYP], [FUPCA], [ANATC], [ATCCA]
SHORT: [COLCT], [FUPPU]
GUT CHECK TIME! Long the FUNYP and ANATC, short COLCT {nm} Jul 30, 22:20
Shorting a horror film scares me... {nm} Jul 30, 23:00
Short all three {nm} Jul 31, 05:20
How are you playing the other 2? {nm} Jul 30, 23:06
agreed, FUNYP may be slight long, but playing post adjust {nm} Jul 31, 07:56
Long FUNYP. dont care bout the aliens and collectors {nm} Jul 31, 07:03
Shorting all 3 {nm} Jul 31, 07:09
Long funny short the other two {nm} Jul 31, 07:53
Short FUNYP and COLCT, long ANATC. {nm} Jul 31, 08:13
long funny...short aliens and collector {nm} Jul 30, 23:40
Were you as surprised as I was when you found out Aliens was showing in more theaters? {nm} Jul 30, 23:46
More theatres, not more screens... I'm not surprised... even The Seeker was in over 3,000 theatres {nm} Jul 31, 04:21
Long Funny Short Aliens and Collector {nm} Jul 30, 23:54
Short unFunny and Collector...long Alien...I mean...there was Alien news today...that must be a sign! Jul 31, 00:28
I agree completely, and my positions are the same. Last month I haven't been wrong on a single opener, I believe.. Jul 31, 01:14
I hope you are right, cause I was writing an e-mail and forgot all about it... Jul 31, 10:08
Long FUNYP & ANATC, Short COLCT Jul 31, 00:34
Long on all Jul 31, 01:30
Yup, same positions here. {nm} Jul 31, 04:20
Same here. {nm} Jul 31, 05:20
Ditto on all counts. {nm} Jul 31, 08:12
Short ANATC, Long the rest {nm} Jul 31, 05:09
I'm shorting them all. Potter and the Hamsters will eat up audiences some more Jul 31, 05:09
Long Funny Jul 31, 06:19