we know for a fact that there are "brakes" in place that curb volatility for a time period.
if there is a large volume of "one-sided" trades (all buy orders for example) than stock will tick up fast at very first few orders and then could only move in penny increments with each subsequent buy order.
so, let's say for example that early tracking numbers were posted on the board and about 50 people saw it in lets say 20 min time window, all those 50 trades might only move the stock a buck or so...
now, let's say that one of the other reliable b.o. predicting sites came out with a wild prediction on how the stock might open, and those traders that frequent that site go there in the span of 5-6 hours and then come back here and make a trade, slow and steady volume of those 50 buy order can move the stock 5-6 bucks...Ā hence, the difference in change of overall longs/shorts and different change in total stock price.
no one here knows for sure how and why stocks move one way or another because hsx secret sauce is patent protected...