HSX Forum

CelebStock and StarBonds

(sorry, stupid font change - this should be easier to read)

Posted by: RogerMore on Sep 27, 06:48 in response to RogerMore's post And here's a calculation, using one of next week's adjusts:

Here's the data we have:

 

Starbond NVARD

 

Bond Price  $15.35 

 

Current TAG  $51.88 

 

Next out of TAG  MBFGW 

 

Gross ($M)  $241.44 

 

Next in TAG  DWIDT 

 

Next in TAG - Price  $0.07 

 

Expected adjust  $3.61 

 

(The actual adjust will probably be slightly lower, because DWIDT has reported $15K in box office and isn't on this week's box office list. But I'll stick with the calculation based on the moviestock's current price for this demo)

So the dROI formula is: (expected value / current value) ^ (1 / days until expected value is realised) - 1

First we have to calculate the expected value, which is how much you need to invest, plus the gains you expect to make.

How much you need to invest is easy:  current price * 20,000 = 15.35 * 20,000 = 307K

How much you expect to make: ABS(current price - expected adjust) * 20,000

 = (15.35 - 3.61) * 20,000 = 11.74*20,000 = 234,800

Let's say 235K to keep the calculations simple. So, calculating the expected value:

Expected value  = investment needed + expected gains = $307K + $235K = $542K

(Also, I haven't factored in commission costs to keep things simple, but if you want to calculate them and then subtract them from expected gains, that's fine)

Lastly, we know the adjust is in 4 days time.

So, we have all the info we need and we can start our calculation:

dROI = (expected value / current value) ^ (1 / days until expected value is realised) - 1

 = ($542K/$307K)^(1 / 4 days to adjust) - 1

        = (1.7654724)^(0.25) - 1

        = 1.152697 - 1

        = 0.152697

        = 15.27%





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


PAW Patrol 3 (PAWP3) 1500 36.31 (+0.01)          Lilo & Stitch (LILST) 3500 139.13 (+1.26)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 50000 279.91 (-4.57)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 149999 14.70 (+2.69)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 13.48 (+3.48)          Famous (FAMOS) 50000 22.63 (+0.92)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 171.61 (-2.28)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 171.61 (-2.28)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 13.48 (+3.48)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 14.70 (+2.69)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 14.70 (+2.69)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 19 204.19 (+2.73)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 6.89 (+0.43)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 6.89 (+0.43)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 13.48 (+3.48)          Red One (REDON) 150000 85.34 (-0.78)          Red One (REDON) 150000 85.34 (-0.78)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 50000 6.89 (+0.43)          The Senior (SENIR) 150000 2.87 (+2.72)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 39050 13.48 (+3.48)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 36099 13.48 (+3.48)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 75000 38.28 (+0.31)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 149999 279.91 (-4.57)          A Woman of No Importance (AWONI) 15000 0.01 (-0.01)          Kung Fury 2 (KFURY) 7500 0.01 (-0.01)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 113897 13.48 (+3.48)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 10000 449.87 (+0.30)          How to Train Your Dragon (HTTYD) 30000 179.19 (+1.01)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 11000 20.19 (+0.15)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 22500 4.00 (0.00)          September 5 (SEPT5) 5000 14.58 (+0.05)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Heretic (HERTC) 13448 25.48 (-0.01)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 13.48 (+3.48)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 5000 14.70 (+2.69)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 5000 14.70 (+2.69)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 50000 279.91 (-4.57)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Dear Santa (DSATA) 150000 0.92 (-0.11)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 125000 279.91 (-4.57)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 13.48 (+3.48)          Robert Zemeckis (RZEME) 25000 35.51 (+0.25)          Liam Neeson (LNEES) 25000 3.35 (+0.16)          Spellbound (SPLBN) 150000 0.30 (-0.01)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.00 (0.00)          Wicked (WICKD) 150000 297.98 (+2.30)