SPIN FACTOR®

The HSX Blog



Whisper Numbers: Toy Story 3

This weekend Pixar delivers its annual instant classic animated feature and this year Pixar goes back to the franchise that started it all.  After enduring a very public battle between Disney and Pixar over the rights to produce the sequel, Toy Story 3 [TOYS3] arrives more than a decade behind the previous installment Toy Story 2.  Thankfully, the two companies came together to the relief of everyone.  Toy Story 3 finds Woody, Buzz and the rest of Andy’s toys dropped off at a day care center where they encounter new characters while trying to find their way home.  As expected, reviews have been outstanding on the G-rated film that wraps up the trilogy.  The series has broad demographic appeal from everyone who has grown up with the beloved characters.   Opening 4028 theaters with the added boost of 3D screens, Toy Story 3 could launch to $110 million and beyond.

Last weekend’s big winner The Karate Kid [KFKID] should more than hold its own against the new competition.  Moviegoers have responded overwhelmingly positive to the remake. The Karate Kid could wear down just 30% from its debut and finish second at around $37 million.

On the other hand, the feature adaptation of The A-Team [ATEAM] was met with a lukewarm reception.  The male-oriented actioner is likely to fall close to 50% to $13 million for its second outing. 

The weekend’s other new wide release is the western Jonah Hex [JOHEX] based on a comic you have never heard of.  Josh Brolin [JBROL] stars as an avenging cowboy with supernatural powers.  Megan Fox [MEFOX] co-star in the PG-13 rated film to up its appeal with young males.  Even though the marketing campaign had a late start, Warner Bros. has advertised heavily on sporting events.  Unfortunately, advance buzz has been low and mostly negative.  Jonah Hex may have to settle for a score around $10 million from 2825 theaters.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.



Tag(s): TOYS3, KFKID, ATEAM, JOHEX, JBROL, MEFOX

View more Blog posts »



By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, June 17, 2010 @ 03:01 PM 2681 views

Recent Comments

bigbrain28
Friday, June 18 at 12:10 PM Pacific
I disagree, and predict fall-off for KFKID to be closer to 60%
Afammojoe
Friday, June 18 at 16:04 PM Pacific
jonah hex will do 25-30



The Crow (TCROW) 149112 23.43 (+0.07)          Karen Gillan (KGILL) 25000 101.97 (+0.66)          A Life of Jesus (ALJES) 150000 19.52 (+0.06)          Lousy Carter (LOUSC) 5000 0.83 (+0.02)          Nobody 2 (NOBO2) 150000 17.62 (+1.73)          The Listener (LSTNR) 150000 0.02 (+0.01)          Hit Man (HTMAN) 150000 1.91 (+0.01)          Andy Muschietti (AMUSC) 25000 158.47 (0.00)          Amber Heard (AHEAR) 25000 107.35 (0.00)          Alan Tudyk (ATUDY) 25000 101.84 (-0.33)          Teyana Taylor (TETAY) 25000 19.19 (-0.20)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Teyana Taylor (TETAY) 25000 19.19 (-0.20)          Luke Evans (LUEVA) 25000 22.51 (+0.25)          Luke Evans (LUEVA) 25000 22.51 (+0.25)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 25000 30.07 (+0.25)          RJ Cyler (RCYLE) 25000 30.07 (+0.25)          Justin Timberlake (JTIMB) 25000 49.36 (-0.33)          Justin Timberlake (JTIMB) 25000 49.36 (-0.33)          Jean-Claude Van Damme (JCVAN) 25000 85.80 (+0.25)          Good Fortune (GDFRT) 150000 29.48 (-0.59)          Good Fortune (GDFRT) 150000 29.48 (-0.59)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 150000 22.10 (-0.53)          Unsung Hero (UNSUN) 150000 22.10 (-0.53)          Henry Cavill (HCAVI) 25000 153.12 (-1.00)          Henry Cavill (HCAVI) 25000 153.12 (-1.00)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 150000 13.11 (-0.20)          Blue Lock The Movie - Episode Na (BLULK) 150000 13.11 (-0.20)          Zoe Kravitz (ZKRAV) 25000 133.83 (0.00)          The Pack (TPACK) 11472 13.53 (+0.02)          Naomi Ackie (NACKI) 25000 87.99 (-0.25)          Madden (MADEN) 150000 35.62 (+1.13)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 150000 62.62 (+2.62)          Lords of War (LRDW2) 150000 14.63 (-0.08)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 887 139.56 (0.00)          The Wager (WAGER) 138596 37.30 (+1.73)          Vin Diesel (VDIES) 25000 157.73 (0.00)          Sung Kang (SKANG) 25000 160.43 (+0.50)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 149112 110.94 (-0.35)          The Watchers (WATCS) 149990 37.13 (+0.04)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 150000 62.62 (+2.62)          City on Fire (CTOFR) 149999 25.11 (-0.23)          Challengers (CHALN) 150000 40.63 (+1.14)          Apartment 7A (APT7A) 150000 7.21 (-0.10)          Untitled Alejandro Gonzalez Inar (UAGIP) 150000 62.62 (+2.62)          In the Blink of An Eye (IBOAE) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Michael Bay (MBAY) 25000 90.00 (+0.25)          Martha Plimpton (MPLIM) 25000 53.99 (-0.16)          Monkey Man (MNKYM) 150000 23.67 (+0.30)          Kurt Russell (KRUSS) 25000 159.37 (0.00)