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DMETH is looking at $38K+ PTA in 4 theaters, and if we look at the history of all films who have done this in at least 4 theaters on OW
the lowest total gross after 12 weeks has been The Aristocrats' $6.2m, followed by Cyrus' $7.4m, so it would have needed some pretty bad legs for the film to not reach the $5m price it was at earlier in the day when the comment was first made.
The reference chart: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/theateravg.htm?page=THTRAVOPN&p=.htm
or sorted by total gross, from the lowest to highest: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/theateravg.htm?page=THTRAVOPN&sort=gross&order=ASC&p=.htm
Of course, one could use The Skin I Live In and Martha Marcy May Marlene, which didn't get to $38K on their OWs but were pretty close and without holiday help, as counter-examples since they're struggling to make over $3m, but I think the upside potential, especially at where it was priced earlier, outweights the downside one.
MCN: [MYWWM] fri avg $2,500 / $610k fri total, [ARTST] $18,850 / $75.4k, [DMETH] $15,150 / $60.6k Nov 26, 10:36
That's pretty strong for DMETH {nm} Nov 26, 12:24
The influence of casting VMORT, I think, at that time. {nm} Nov 26, 13:22
The Artist has had a lot more hype. I didn't even know that Dangerous Method had opened and I'm a Cronenberg fanboy. {nm} Nov 26, 18:59
as what tawdryhepburn said, and DMETH was priced as half of what The Artist had {nm} Nov 26, 20:12
Yes... a movie that has more hype and is marketed better will do better business. Not sure I understand your argument Nov 26, 20:33
DMETH is looking at $38K+ PTA in 4 theaters, and if we look at the history of all films who have done this in at least 4 theaters on OW Nov 26, 21:18
I think competition wil have a huge impact against DMETH in the coming weeks: Carnage, Tinker Tailor, Shame, Kevin, etc {nm} Nov 27, 06:37