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This isn't something we've looked at closely, but here's some research and early thoughts.
Doing some Googling...
JURA4 had 90% of Fandango sales, and ended up taking 73% of the weekend box office. (Interestingly, it was only 52% of sales on MovieTickets.com)
Last year HGAM3 had 90% of Fandango sales, and was 61.3% of the weekend
And XMEN5 had 90% of Fandango sales as well, though it ended up with only 47.4% of the 2014 Memorial Day box office. Of course, that's a bigger movie-going weekend with lots of other movies to see in theatres
FAST7 - 80% of ticket sales, 65.6% of the weekend
MALEF - 80% of ticket sales, 41% of the weekend
GODZL - 80% of Fandango sales, 52.4% of the weekend
HGAM2 - 70% of Fandango sales, 70% of the weekend
http://www.thewrap.com/hunger-games-catching-fire-first-day-pre-ales-huge-on-fandango/
APES2 - 70% of Fandango sales, 48.4% of the weekend
Some early thoughts:
Obviously the people who buy on Fandango aren't representative of the wider audience - they're buying tickets ahead of time because they expect sessions to be sold out. Openers tend to be over-represented because anyone who wants to see Vacation, Trainwreck or Ant-Man this weekend knows they can just show up.
I think it would be unusual for the only big opener on a weekend not to get 80% of ticket sales. If it fails to do so, maybe that's a bad sign.
The level of competition from other movies are in theatres seems to be important to the % of the weekend. Movies with a higher % of the box office were JURA4, HGAM3, HGAM2 and FAST7. FAST7 and HGAM2&HGAM3 were spring and fall releases respectively and there were fewer people in theatres to see other movies. JURA4 didn't really have much competition either - the second week of SCOPR and NSID3 and the 3rd week of SANDR - plus it was JURA4.
GODZL, XMEN5 and MALEF opened over three successive weeks - and the % of total box office taken by the big opener fell each week, as we went deeper into summer and there were more people seeing movies. APES2 didn't really have that much competition, but all those summer movies added up so it had a lot % of the total
Obviously this isn't systematic - it relies on whatever Fandango decides to publish and how it decides to publish it. I've only found 8 releases that give a % of Fandango sales, though they were all for weekends with one big release. But Fandango never says "this movie is going to bomb" - they always try to put on a positive spin, or say nothing. For example, FANT4 last week was "leading new releases"
DL: Straight Outta Compton's advance Fandango sales, literally, THROUGH THE ROOF! Aug 13, 09:48
Still no good comparisons. Ray, Walk The Line, Notorious and Jersey Boys all open under $30M. {nm} Aug 13, 09:51
Yeah, but Straight Outta Compton has more appeal to men under 40 than Jersey Boys, and an 89% RT score. {nm} Aug 13, 09:59
Sure, I didn't say otherwise. {nm} Aug 13, 10:03
Is it outselling RDLON 41M 3-days? That would be more telling. {nm} Aug 13, 10:10
do you think whites will be intimidated do go to the theaters? {nm} Aug 13, 11:10
not if they have any balls. that should not be an issue IMHO. {nm} Aug 13, 11:39
For myself I will just wait to see it on video Aug 13, 16:39
70% of weekend ticket sales. Aug 13, 10:14
Theater count is the obstacle here; 20K+ PTA at this TC level has happened (i.e. 8 Mile) but is still rare air. {nm} Aug 13, 10:16
I don't understand. What wa slast weekend 130m this one 100? {nm} Aug 13, 10:17
Weekend gross for all movies combined {nm} Aug 13, 10:22
That's exactly why I said I *don't* expect it to be 70m (or more generally 70% of next weekend's total) Aug 13, 10:29
Ok. it's just the way you highlighted "70% of weekend ticket sales." {nm} Aug 13, 10:33
I see what you mean now. That was a quote from the DL article, I should have included the "..." {nm} Aug 13, 12:41
This isn't something we've looked at closely, but here's some research and early thoughts. Aug 13, 11:59
good stuff {nm} Aug 13, 12:20
Very cool, thanks. That FANT4 quote at the end is priceless, I missed that last weekend {nm} Aug 13, 12:38
you damn right they is {nm} Aug 13, 10:23
The story doesn't match the headline. {nm} Aug 13, 10:26
I was being funny, though I know my cut of humor is not near as entertaining as charlie {nm} Aug 13, 10:55
where's mike255 to tell us all the reasons white people won't go to this movie in the theaters? {nm} Aug 13, 10:26
I sure hope the reason he is not replying is because he is banned ;-) {nm} Aug 13, 10:29
aww man Aug 13, 10:30
say it ain't so? is he really banned? {nm} Aug 13, 10:55
LOL, no doubt. btw, Saul deserved all it's Emmy nods and more! {nm} Aug 13, 10:54
I think everything will be fine. Aug 13, 11:12
agreed sir. hopefully $15,000 to 20,000 per theater average in store for this one. {nm} Aug 13, 11:39
