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Whisper Numbers: Forecast remains Fifty Shades of Grey

As Hollywood’s biggest stars prepare for the Academy Awards ceremony this weekend, three new movies will target specific demographics while ceding the top spot to Fifty Shades of Grey [50SHD]. After its record-breaking opening, the erotic romance is losing steam fast similarly to other female-targeted adaptations. The two Sex and the City films tumbled more than 60% in their second weekend, while the non-summer Twilight sequels have dropped 70% in their sophomore weekend. Fifty Shades of Grey could stumble more than 60% to $33 million.

After its strong debut over a holiday weekend, Kingsman: The Secret Service [TSSRV] may lose 50% and finish with around $19 million. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water [SPBO2] should battle for second place at about $18 million.

Hot Tub Time Machine was a mild hit in March 2010 with a $14 million opening, so most of the cast return in the obligatory sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2 [HTUB2]. Moviegoers enjoy time travelling shenanigans, and the marketing on the R-rated raunchy comedy has delivered chuckles if not laughs.  Dipping into 2880 theaters, Hot Tub Time Machine 2 could whirl up $13 million.

Kevin Costner [KCOST] toplines his second film in two months with McFarland, USA [MCFAR], based on a true story. The PG-rated Disney release is the typical inspirational sports drama about underdogs overcoming adversity with the help of a new coach. Disney opened Million Dollar Arm to $10.5 million last May. McFarland, USA should do about a similar $10 million from 2755 locations.

Although the PG-13 rated comedy The DUFF [TDUFF] has come up with a catchy slogan in Designated Ugly Fat Friend, the story about high school popularity and cliques hasn’t changed since the John Hughes ‘80s.  However, new teens age into the moviegoing demographic coveted by studios like Lionsgate. Showing in 2575 theaters, The DUFF may pretty up $8 million.

That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): 50SHD, TSSRV, SPBO2, HTUB2, KCOST, MCFAR, TDUFF

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, February 19, 2015 @ 03:36 PM 2032 views

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Red One (REDON) 149999 107.38 (-2.07)          The Princess Diaries 3 (PDIA3) 15000 34.92 (-0.17)          The Thicket (THCKT) 8000 0.04 (0.00)          The Bad Guys 2 (TBAD2) 30000 79.85 (+1.72)          Here (HERE1) 150000 19.92 (-1.11)          The Unbreakable Boy (UNBOY) 12000 4.11 (-0.02)          The Incredible Hulk vs. Wolverin (THLK2) 40000 62.31 (+0.09)          Bob the Builder (BOBTB) 150000 25.57 (+2.93)          Heretic (HERTC) 10000 22.74 (-0.91)          Mickey 17 aka Mickey7 (MCKY7) 149988 92.91 (-0.38)          Bob the Builder (BOBTB) 150000 25.57 (+2.93)          Heretic (HERTC) 999 22.74 (-0.91)          The African-American Fund (AFRAM) 500 27.08 (+0.12)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 150000 12.51 (+3.72)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 150000 12.51 (+3.72)          Red One (REDON) 143058 107.38 (-2.07)          The End (THEND) 150000 2.76 (+0.86)          Singham Again (SNGH3) 132000 3.54 (+0.32)          Venom: The Last Dance (VENM3) 5221 144.61 (+1.46)          The End (THEND) 150000 2.76 (+0.86)          Reminders of Him (RMNDH) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Reykjavik (REYKJ) 150000 3.56 (-0.44)          Cliffhanger (CLFHN) 150000 11.92 (-0.79)          Cliffhanger (CLFHN) 150000 11.92 (-0.79)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 150000 12.51 (+3.72)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 150000 12.51 (+3.72)          Bob the Builder (BOBTB) 150000 25.57 (+2.93)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 30000 239.17 (-1.82)          Bob the Builder (BOBTB) 150000 25.57 (+2.93)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 11714 239.17 (-1.82)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 150000 95.57 (+0.92)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 150000 95.57 (+0.92)          Cliffhanger (CLFHN) 150000 11.92 (-0.79)          Cliffhanger (CLFHN) 150000 11.92 (-0.79)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 81547 240.60 (+1.42)          Pressure (PRSUR) 900 17.84 (+1.56)          Bob the Builder (BOBTB) 150000 25.57 (+2.93)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 150000 12.51 (+3.72)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 150000 12.51 (+3.72)          Here (HERE1) 150000 19.92 (-1.11)          Three Bags Full: A Sheep Detecti (3BAGF) 15309 29.35 (-0.82)          Here (HERE1) 150000 19.92 (-1.11)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 9000 183.61 (-0.95)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 66953 240.60 (+1.42)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 97778 183.61 (-0.95)          Red One (REDON) 150000 107.38 (-2.07)          Reminders of Him (RMNDH) 150000 20.00 (0.00)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 1278 240.60 (+1.42)          Elio (ELIO) 22 133.44 (-0.17)          Red One (REDON) 14000 107.38 (-2.07)