Just one year after Lionsgate launched another post-apocalyptic franchise based on a YA book series with Divergent, the sequel The Divergent Series: Insurgent [DVRG2] arrives in theaters. Divergent debuted with $54.6 million and expectations are higher for Insurgent. Since then, Shailene Woodley [SWOOD] and Ansel Elgort [AELGO] starred together in The Fault in Our Stars, while Miles Teller [MTELL] won acclaim for Whiplash. In a bid to broaden the audience, marketing on the PG-13 rated sequel has focused on the action of war and The Matrix-like special effects, at the expense of story. There has been no advance ticket sales report of the sequel outpacing the original. However, the sequel will have the benefit of 3D ticket prices, which the original lacked. Breaking into 3875 theaters, The Divergent Series: Insurgent could rile up $56 million.
After the actual weekend tally, Cinderella [CINDE] did not out-shine Maleficient after all. Maleficient tumbled 51% in its second weekend while Oz The Great and Powerful dropped 48% two years ago. With a more family-friendly story, Cinderella should be able to hold at least 55% and dance away with another $37 million.
Sean Penn [SPENN] will play action hero in The Gunman [PGUNM] from Open Road. However, the liberal Oscar-winner has little box office clout. Neither does his respected co-stars Javier Bardem [JBARD] and Idris Elba [IELDA]. The R-rated film has earned mixed reviews, which will discourage the older target audience. Targeting 2815 theaters, The Gunman may shoot up $7 million.
The faith-based drama Do You Believe? [DYBLV] targets the Christian audience that opened God’s Not Dead to $9.2 million a year ago. The PG-13 rated film has a more recognizable cast led by Mira Sorvino [MSORV] and Sean Astin [SASTI]. However, it’s hard to track an audience that normal don’t go out to movies. The producer Pure Flix has opted to self-distribute Do You Believe? in 1300 theaters, rather than enlist the service of Freestyle Releasing that put God’s Not Dead in 780 theaters. Do You Believe? could collect around $6 million.
Moviegoers appear to be tiring of the overexposed Liam Neeson. With competition from The Gunman, Run All Night [ALNIT] should tumble more than 50% to $5.0 million.
That’s the whisper from the virtual trading floor.
Tag(s): DVRG2, SWOOD, AELGO, MTELL, CINDE, SPENN, PGUNM, JBARD, DYBLV, MSORV, SASTI, ALNIT