SPIN FACTOR®

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Whisper Numbers: Alice in Wonderland to trip up four new releases.

Moviegoers were apparently really starved for a new 3D film, especially a fresh spin on the classic story Alice in Wonderland [ALCNW] reuniting Tim Burton [TBURT] and Johnny Depp [JDEPP].  However, the fantasy film is unlikely to have the legs of its 3D predecessor, Avatar after its multiple record-breaking debut.  Alice in Wonderland could be headed for a tumble of more than 50% to come through its second weekend at about $54 million.

Matt Damon [MDAMO] reteams with director Paul Greengrass [PGREE] for the R-rated actioner Green Zone [GREZN]. Originally based on the non-fiction book "Imperial Life in the Emerald City" which explained how the U.S. bungled post-war Iraq, the film has instead been turned fictionalized into an American solider going rogue in search of the truth.  Since films about war and politics in the Middle East have not fared well at the box office, Universal has smartly marketed Green Zone like it was a Bourne sequel.  However, the R-rated film is still unlikely to recover its production cost of at least $140 million. Green Zone could dig up just $21 million from 3003 locations.  

The success of Knocked Up with its improbable coupling has inspired another nerdy-loser-gets-the-hot-girl movie in She’s Out of My League [SHOML]. The R-rated raunchy comedy hopes to appeal to the same young crowd drawn to I Love You, Man, which opened to $17.8 million last year.  However, the DreamWorks film lacks the star power of the typical Apatow film in this genre. Opening in 2956 theater, She’s Out of My League could score $13 million on its first date.

Summit will see if Twilight fans will follow Rob Pattinson [RPATT] to another film with Remember Me [REMBR].  The PG-13 rated romance is targeted strictly at ladies who swoon for the young heartthrob. Playing in 2212 theaters, Remember Me could tally $11 million in its debut.

Forest Whitaker [FWHIT] clashes cultures with Carlos Mencia [CMENC] in the PG-13 rated Our Family Wedding [FAMWD].  Also starring America Ferrera [AFERR], the interracial romantic comedy from Fox Searchlight film is aimed at the urban audience.  Stepping into 1605 theaters, Our Family Wedding could walk away with at least $9 million.

That’s the whisper from the trading floor.




Tag(s): ALCNW, TBURT, JDEPP, MDAMO, PGREE, GREZN, SHOML, RPATT, REMBR, FWHIT, CMENC, FAMWD, AFERR

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, March 11, 2010 @ 03:48 PM 4148 views

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Jena Malone (JMALO) 15 7.01 (+0.05)          Karate Kid Legends (KKID2) 150000 124.12 (+0.29)          Charlie Day (CDAY) 10 85.65 (0.00)          Diane Kruger (DKRUG) 30 8.32 (0.00)          Heretic (HERTC) 150000 26.77 (-0.46)          The Fantastic 4: First Steps aka (FANF2) 144000 198.32 (-0.31)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 60000 207.88 (+0.10)          Running Man (TRUNM) 150000 66.91 (-0.20)          Heretic (HERTC) 150000 26.77 (-0.46)          Quentin Tarantino (QTARA) 1000 90.53 (-0.26)          Carrie-Anne Moss (CMOSS) 25 19.11 (0.00)          Dwayne Johnson (TROCK) 50 146.86 (0.00)          Arnold Schwarzenegger (ASCHW) 500 46.12 (-0.17)          They Found Us (THFUS) 150000 15.15 (-0.72)          Chloe Grace Moretz (CMORE) 30 37.25 (0.00)          Liv Tyler (LTYLE) 10 53.74 (0.00)          Bring Them Down (BRTDW) 150000 1.68 (-0.25)          The Six Billion Dollar Man (6MILL) 150000 17.38 (-0.12)          Emilia Clarke (ECLAR) 5000 75.56 (-0.05)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 5000 20.02 (+0.03)          Hugh Jackman (HJACK) 5000 49.79 (-0.20)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFCN) 150000 117.83 (+0.91)          Transformers 8 (TFRM8) 150000 94.49 (-0.16)          Blood on Snow (BLOSN) 150000 23.62 (-0.12)          King Spawn (SPWN2) 150000 3.53 (-0.02)          Blood on Snow (BLOSN) 150000 23.62 (-0.12)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 150000 3.40 (-0.75)          September 5 (SEPT5) 150000 14.08 (+0.09)          Famke Janssen (FJANS) 25 46.42 (0.00)          James Gunn (JGUNN) 100 183.58 (0.00)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 1000 169.36 (+0.01)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 150000 254.34 (+1.72)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 149999 5.55 (+0.78)          The Super Mario Bros. Movie 2 (MARI2) 2000 370.49 (-0.01)          Kung Fury 2 (KFURY) 150000 0.01 (-0.01)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 150000 5.55 (+0.78)          Aubrey Plaza (APLAZ) 2000 5.90 (0.00)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 175.52 (-1.03)          The Wedding Banquet (TWEDB) 149999 7.86 (+0.40)          M.A.S.K. (MASK) 150000 1.65 (-0.02)          Him aka Goat (GOAT1) 149999 20.46 (+0.40)          M.A.S.K. (MASK) 150000 1.65 (-0.02)          Get Away (GAWAY) 150000 2.69 (-0.02)          G.I. Joe sequel (GIJO4) 150000 21.81 (-0.08)          Akira (AKIRA) 150000 9.88 (0.00)          They Found Us (THFUS) 150000 15.15 (-0.72)          Topher Grace (TGRAC) 25000 24.06 (+0.25)          Werewolves - Opening Weekend (WEREW.OW) 100000 5.31 (+0.31)          Y2K - Opening Weekend (Y2K.OW) 100000 5.41 (+0.41)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFCN) 5000 117.83 (+0.91)