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Whisper Numbers: Aquaman vs. Mary Poppins vs. Bumblebee, oh my

After decades as the butt of jokes in the suphero world of DC Comics, Aquaman [AQUMN] is poised to conquer the box office. Jason Momoa [JMOMO] first played the role in Justice League, which opened to $93.8 million in November 2017. The stand-alone Aquaman explores the origins of the half-human, half-Atlantean, who is called upon to reclaim his rightful place in the underwater kingdom. Director James Wan [JWAN] has embraced the superhero’s eccentricity and delivered on CG spectacles. The PG-13 rated adventure has generated positive buzz and reviews. Advance ticket sales have surpassed Wonder Woman, which opened to $103.2 million in June 2017. Some of those sales are for the Christmas break next week, so Aquaman may not cross the century mark over 3 days. Diving into 4125 theaters, Aquaman looks to surface with $82 million.

Mary Poppins Returns [MPOPN] after 54 years with Emily Blunt [EBLUN] in the title role. The 1964 musical is a classic seen by multiple generations of Disney fans. Lin-Manuel Miranda [LMIRA] costars in the PG-rated sequel directed by Rob Marshall [RMARS]. Mary Poppins Returns opened on Wednesday and grossed $4.8 million. Advance ticket sales are ahead of Jumanji, which banked $52.7 million during its first 5 days. Mary Poppins Returns should deliver similar results with $50 million through Sunday from 4090 locations.

Paramount reboots the Transformers franchise with Bumblebee [TFRM6] and without director Michael Bay. Set during the 1980s, the PG-rated prequel features Autobots and Decepticons that look more like the original toys. The family-friendly Bumblebee has received the best reviews in the series, which will help to bring back adult fans that grew up with the cartoons. Advance ticket sales are outpacing Transformers: The Last Knight, which debuted at $4.7 million. Rolling into 3550 theaters, Bumblebee could stick $45 million.

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse [ASPDR] has excellent word of mouth, but faces heavy competition. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse could drop 45% in its sophomore frame to $19 million. The Mule [TMULE] will enjoy long legs due to its older fanbase. The Mule looks to hold about 65% from its debut for $11.5 million.

Jennifer Lopez [JLOPE] toplines the PG-13 rated romantic comedy Second Act [2NDAC]. Her last film The Boy Next Door opened to $14.9 million during a less crowded January weekend. The female target audience may hold off until after the busy first weekend. Second Act could earn $9 million from 2607 theaters.

Welcome to Marwen [MARWN] is likely to bring up the rear among the new wide releases. Despite having director Robert Zemeckis [RZEME], the PG-13 rated fantasy has received some of the worse reviews of the year. Universal’s marketing campaign has been unappealing. Released in just 1911 theaters, Welcome to Marwen may not hit $8 million.

Two Oscar-bait films expands wide this weekend. The Favourite [FVRIT] could net $4 million in its fifth weekend from 790 theaters, while Mary Queen of Scots [MQOFS] could draw $3 million during its second weekend from 795 theaters.

That’s the whisper on the virtual trading floor.



Tag(s): AQUMN, JMOMO, JWAN, MPOPN, EBLUN, LMIRA, RMARS, TFRM6, ASPDR, TMULE, JLOPE, 2NDAC, MARWN, RZEME, FVRIT, MQOFS

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By Box Office Whisperer on Thursday, December 20, 2018 @ 03:11 PM 1642 views

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Gladiator II H$70 Call (GLAD2.CA) 25000 2.18 (-0.04)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 19.98 (-0.01)          Gundam (GUNDM) 10000 14.30 (+0.89)          Gundam (GUNDM) 25000 14.30 (+0.89)          The Hand That Rocks the Cradle (HTRTC) 10000 24.74 (+0.62)          Splitsville (SPTSV) 500 4.42 (+0.45)          Y2K - Opening Weekend (Y2K.OW) 100000 5.12 (+0.12)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 11.05 (-0.95)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 2000 7.92 (-0.08)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 15000 18.51 (-0.89)          Relay (RELAY) 2000 3.39 (-0.10)          Famous (FAMOS) 20000 20.93 (-1.00)          The Monkey (MONKY) 49999 29.36 (+0.06)          Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy (BJON4) 150000 2.91 (-0.02)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 25000 11.05 (-0.95)          Beetlejuice Beetlejuice $250M Bl (BEET2.BW) 25000 16.42 (+0.14)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 4 38.82 (0.00)          Nobody 2 (NOBO2) 150000 30.56 (+0.80)          Shang-Chi 2 (SHCH2) 100000 64.32 (-0.20)          Babygirl (BBGRL) 149996 21.41 (+0.06)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 25000 169.57 (+0.22)          In The Lost Lands (INTLL) 149996 8.58 (+0.01)          Mutiny (MUTNY) 4 22.61 (0.00)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 17000 17.28 (-0.09)          Solo Leveling - ReAwakening (SOLVL) 149996 4.56 (+0.21)          Dune: Messiah aka Dune: Part Thr (DUNE3) 46 171.85 (-0.11)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 78000 17.28 (-0.09)          The Unbreakable Boy (UNBOY) 66000 4.05 (-0.02)          Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (SONC3) 127169 169.57 (+0.22)          Insidious 6 (NSID6) 12000 35.94 (+0.04)          They Found Us (THFUS) 100000 15.40 (-0.47)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 16000 28.09 (+0.01)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 49999 176.51 (-0.04)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 43925 78.99 (-0.02)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 150000 3.53 (-0.62)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 50 278.38 (-0.02)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 50000 3.53 (-0.62)          They Found Us (THFUS) 48000 15.40 (-0.47)          Shrek 5 (SHRK5) 150000 146.41 (-0.77)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 10000 176.51 (-0.04)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 100000 18.51 (-0.89)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 150000 3.53 (-0.62)          Flight Risk (FLTRS) 9899 30.21 (+1.06)          Famous (FAMOS) 100000 20.93 (-1.00)          Reminders of Him (RMNDH) 49000 19.84 (+0.13)          Kelvin Harrison Jr. (KHARR) 1198 52.87 (0.00)          Gladiator II H$70 Call (GLAD2.CA) 25000 2.18 (-0.04)          The Hand That Rocks the Cradle (HTRTC) 28000 24.74 (+0.62)          The Hand That Rocks the Cradle (HTRTC) 55000 24.74 (+0.62)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 19.98 (-0.01)