HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
Boxoffice.com long range forecast accuracy
Inspired by the thread in the movies board:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k7jOJNGHrqUUGvr4e2K1DL37TQk2ugIykfw2nb6-x70/edit?usp=sharing
I took the first prediction for movies this year minus a few where the dates changed so it wasn't the normal 2 months out.
It's hard to say what exactly is a good or bad prediction. You say 10m and a movie does 5m that's not very good percentage-wise but it's only 5m off. You say 160 and a movie does 175m that's pretty good but it's 15m off, "worse" than the previous example. I used 5m for "good" and 15m for "bad" but you can look it over and take what you want from it.
Boxoffice.com long range forecast accuracy Aug 07, 15:32
Very interesting. Thanks for your work! {NM} Aug 07, 16:11
Great work. Thanks for putting this together. {nm} Aug 07, 16:34
Interesting how far off they are on many bigger releases... Aug 07, 17:15
Interesting data, thanks MattW. I wish we had the same kind of analysis for OW Derivatives. {nm} Aug 08, 04:29
You would have to factor in the Time Value of Money on HSX prices. {nm} Aug 08, 10:45
no - the TVM isn't relevant except to the individual investor, especially when we're looking at a valuation. {nm} Aug 08, 12:04
Wrong. It's precisely relevant for the reason you state. The price is an aggregate of all the individual investors. Aug 08, 12:35
C'mon- you know it's deviated based on a proprietary (dynamic) algorithm, thus invalid aggregate {nm} Aug 08, 13:55
HSX is an aggregate of all your collective wisdom. {nm} Aug 10, 09:43
One could suspect that there are a lot of tiny pebbles in that aggregate. :P {nm} Aug 10, 12:14
