HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
I personally reckon somewhere between the $140-145 mark (reasoning inside)
My thinking behind that estimate is that Marvel's core audience is as strong as the weakest performers of previous films, so Thor and Captain America that clocked in at $65 each. Let's just conveniently forget about Hulk since he hasn't had a title film for a while, and he's now played by a different actor.
Iron Man 1 opened well at $98 and then word of mouth (presumably on RDJ's performance) grew it to $318. Iron Man 2 opened stronger (presumably off good word of mouth for #1) but ended up around the same figure as the film wasn't as good. Any non-core or non-superhero fanbase will have almost certainly dropped off Iron Man due to the poor content of #2.
Whedon's last TV show - Dollhouse - got cancelled due to poor ratings, and I'm not convinced that Whedon fans necessarily intersect with Marvel fans, so I'd expect a big drop off there. He's living off his reputation from 2 cancelled TV series, a show that ended 9 years ago and a spin off of that which ended 8 years ago.
I've seen the film (I live in the UK) and I think word of mouth will be similar to Iron Man 2, especially to non-core audiences who will view the first hour of it as frankly a bit dull. The one benefit the US has is that Captain America probably doesn't seem like such a paper thin character as he does in the UK where everyone is kind of indifferent.
I'd actually like to peg this at $130 but all the tracking etc seems to contradict that, so I'm going with the low end of the data!
Here's this weekend's prediction column. I'd love to know what you guys think so please feel free to leave your predictions May 02, 11:35
Here's the link May 02, 11:36
http://www.filmgo.net/BoxOfficePredictions/tabid/138/EntryId/552/The-Avengers-Assemble-to-Kick-Off-the-Summer.aspx May 02, 11:36
I personally reckon somewhere between the $140-145 mark (reasoning inside) May 02, 14:04
good number May 02, 11:47
Thanks Oleg. I think the film is going to do very well, despite MTC's $140 million call. May 02, 11:52
Not that $140 million is bad! May 02, 11:52
in this context it is, lol {nm} May 02, 12:02
I say around 162... {nm} May 02, 12:02
You're giving too much to #2,3,4,5. Take $1M off each and add to AVNGR, and we're seeing a $170M+ weekend! {nm} May 02, 12:24
I think $145 to $150 million is on track, here's why May 02, 12:27
if you adjust spidey 3 numbers for inflation, it would be 174 today, and that doesn't account for 3D {nm} May 02, 12:30
167, I beg your pardon, still gets the point across, inflation and 3d tickets could more than make up for it {nm} May 02, 12:32
Different franchises. SPID1 and SPID2 banked ~$400M. The best AVGNR prequel IRNMN topped out ~320M. {nm} May 02, 12:41
But you are getting a bunch of superheroes versus just one. Ergo, higher box office. {nm} May 02, 12:46
It's not cumulative as their fans overlap between IRNM, HULK, THOR and CAPAM. {nm} May 02, 12:48
my thinking as well {nm} May 02, 12:51
but then again there's all that built-up anticipation for AVNGR {nm} May 02, 12:59
The best point made! {nm} May 02, 13:15
my thought was that Avengers doesn't have to do as well as spidey3 and can still be > 160 {nm} May 02, 12:48
Spidey 3 sucked ****, too. Reviews for Avengers are stellar. May 02, 12:43
No clue which indicator he used here for inflation.....but avg. ticket in 2007 = $6.88...avg. ticket in 2011 = $7.96 May 02, 12:51
haha, good points. avg ticket price is a better guide, of course, you are using 2011 #'s so adjust up a bit. {nm} May 02, 12:56
I was using CPI, btw {nm} May 02, 13:03
I think it 's a tad high. I'd go 155-160ish. The lack of news of midnight sellouts is alarming along with MTC #s. {nm} May 02, 12:39
First weekend in May openers don't do big midnight numbers. SM3 did 10M while IM2 did 7.5M {nm} May 02, 12:43
Midnights are much different now then they were when Spidey 3 came out. But I see your point. {nm} May 02, 12:56
Source? Link? {nm} May 02, 13:23
It sold out its first 10 announced theaters May 02, 13:58
Wow, a whole 10 theaters. {nm} May 02, 14:11
just for perspective May 02, 14:18
Alright.10 special event showings sold out. Great. There isn't any presale buzz like The Hunger Games though May 02, 14:42
What about this? May 02, 14:53
You just used Iron Man 2, to say that midnights did not matter in May. May 02, 15:00
Considering inflation in general admission, plus inflation for 3D and IMAX, it could easily outpace SM3's midnights. May 02, 15:18
This argument is pointless. I am repeating the same points I have already made from the beginning. May 02, 15:24
And your non-quantifiable assessment of buzz is fact? {nm} May 02, 15:29
So I guess you skipped over my post with the Hunger Games material? Sheesh, fanboys. 155M is not enough. {nm} May 02, 15:33
Honestly, don't care 1 way or the other May 02, 15:40
Maybe you should read the first post that started this whole thing. It was about midnight sellouts. May 02, 15:47
And once again I am repeating myself. {nm} May 02, 15:49
Gotcha...ask and lazy self will receive I guess May 02, 16:03
Poke it enough and it can flame {nm} May 02, 16:04
Aren't you 'assuming' that a lower midnight number equates a lower opening weekend? Just sayin'. {nm} May 02, 16:40
Not really. No one can show the thousands of midnight sellouts that The Hunger Games had. {nm} May 02, 17:34
Apparently midnight numbers mean everything to you when there's actually more to the weekend. {nm} May 02, 17:50
If you're asking me diirectly May 02, 14:58
No school on Sat and Sun, kids will be out for the mid-night showings, for sure. {nm} May 02, 12:48
as opposed to the saturdays and sundays they do have school? {nm} May 02, 12:53
Point is midnight showings will not be affected by the fact that schools not out yet. {nm} May 02, 14:36
gotcha....kids don't go to school on Sat and Sun....thx for the breaking info...any odds on the sun coming up tomorrow? May 02, 15:01
i give it no better than 50/50 {nm} May 02, 15:04