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Lorax is the model. Lego actually did about a 2% better increase Saturday and ERC is estimating about .5% worse for Sunday. So it's a bit...
conservative if LEGO is building up a head of steam and has a relatively better Sunday. It could break $70M, but I doubt it'll be way underestimated compared to this $69.11M Sunday estimate.
Even at the $69.11M, that's 57.8% better than MTC's prediction and 72.8% better than DL/Anita's avg of 40M ("38-42"), which she posted Thursday a day before it opened. It's 38.8% above the avg projection of several sites or sources, 49.8M, which PVL posted a few boards back.
It's very similar to Lorax, Frozen and Tangled all being underestimated by similarly substantial percentages. I think the common theme among the 4 is non-sequel animated of course, but also "iconic among the young, and young-at-heart especially parents with kids". Failure to properly account for that latter factor, plus studio pressure to lowball on these movies, and probably a tendency of those making predictions to lowball as well, have caused the big misses.
The Lego Movie - 69.11 mill Feb 09, 08:18
Vampire academy - 4.1 mill Feb 09, 08:18
i bet it is underestimated {nm} Feb 09, 08:34
Lorax is the model. Lego actually did about a 2% better increase Saturday and ERC is estimating about .5% worse for Sunday. So it's a bit... Feb 09, 09:19
Kal - Very thoughtful insights! And nice comparison to similiar big misses. {nm} Feb 09, 19:04
Thanks! {nm} Feb 10, 03:15
The Monuments Men - 22.7 mill Feb 09, 08:34
serious question: Why are you posting these every sunday ? Are you competing with Dmac ? {nm} Feb 09, 08:38
Frozen 6.91m a mere 23% drop, and 913m worldwide now. Feb 09, 08:38
Nailed it {nm} Feb 09, 10:28