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boxoffice.com estimates are within these ranges, too: AVATR 72, SHOLM 70, ALVI2 45, CMPLC 22.5

Posted by: second gary (a.k.a 80181597) on Dec 26, 10:54 in response to secretstalker's post Seems low on SHOLM, possibly high on ALVN2

http://boxoffice.com/numbers/

If last year's weekend-after-Christmas dropoffs are used as rough guideline (worst performance in the Top 10 was down 34%), then next weekend would look like this:

AVATR 48, SHOLM 45, ALVI2 30, CMPLC 15. Ā 

But I wouldn't be surprised, given this weekend, to see next weekend's dropoffs be smaller.

ERC estimates: AVATR 75, SHOLM 68, ALVN2 50 second gary Dec 26, 09:03

Seems low on SHOLM, possibly high on ALVN2 secretstalker Dec 26, 09:07

way low on SHOLM, ALVN2 is probably close and AVATR is a beast! {nm} lobogotti Dec 26, 09:10

It is really that good!!!!!! Went yestarday for my second viewing on IMAX REAL D. and its impressive, it may be worth a 3 gogreen Dec 26, 09:43

o rly? whats so good about the story in avatar? {nm} adrenalin112 Dec 26, 11:13

Seems that would be BOG - boxofficeguru (Gitesh Pandya), not BOM (Box Office Mojo) {nm} Facto Dec 26, 09:43

Yes, sorry... I meant BOG. {nm} secretstalker Dec 26, 09:45

No biggie, I just tend to trust BOM more than BOG.. ;-) Not sure if that is validated, though - just my feeling, for now {nm} Facto Dec 26, 09:55

Looks like RDJ Is On His Way To Being The Next Johnny Depp B.O Wise. {nm} wrongturn687 Dec 26, 10:01

True dat...but I don't think he has any indie duds laying around like Depp did after Pirates {nm} secretstalker Dec 26, 10:36

SOLOIST was pretty much the closest thing to that, POE is the lowest profile project he is attached to at this time. {nm} notfabio Dec 26, 11:43

That and the odds of POE actually being made are fairly slim. {nm} notfabio Dec 26, 11:44

Yeah, especially if James McTeigue's The Raven gets moving. but who knows? Maybe he'll be cast as Poe in that! :) {nm} secretstalker Dec 26, 12:22

boxoffice.com estimates are within these ranges, too: AVATR 72, SHOLM 70, ALVI2 45, CMPLC 22.5 second gary Dec 26, 10:54

Oops. No, SHOLM and AVATR are both below the BOM range estimates. {nm} second gary Dec 26, 10:58

So Avatar could break the record for biggest 2nd weekend of 75.166 (of TDK) even though it opened to half what TDK did. {nm} ceregon Dec 26, 11:03

all of the above are overestimated i see 68 for AVATR as well {nm} Smallville944 Dec 26, 20:32

that's like a 1% drop? amazing. {nm} JohnnyS2 Dec 26, 23:20





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The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 1000 20.27 (+0.23)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 12.88 (+2.88)          Casa Bonita Mi Amor! (CBMA) 1699 0.16 (+0.02)          Heretic (HERTC) 150000 25.19 (-0.30)          Red One (REDON) 5 85.39 (-0.73)          Wicked H$100 Put (WICKD.PU) 2000 1.01 (-0.10)          Red One (REDON) 150000 85.39 (-0.73)          Wicked H$100 Put (WICKD.PU) 2000 1.01 (-0.10)          Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 149999 15.93 (-0.06)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 40355 67.96 (-1.16)          Parthenope (PRTNP) 293 2.47 (0.00)          The Room Next Door (TRND) 150000 6.95 (+0.12)          Parthenope (PRTNP) 507 2.47 (0.00)          Gladiator II H$70 Put (GLAD2.PU) 25000 4.84 (+0.46)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 25000 172.99 (-0.90)          Red One (REDON) 150000 85.39 (-0.73)          Splitsville (SPTSV) 4440 4.40 (+0.23)          Splitsville (SPTSV) 4972 4.40 (+0.23)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 12.88 (+2.88)          Talk 2 Me aka Talk to Me 2 (TLKT2) 150000 14.74 (+0.06)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 150000 203.61 (+2.15)          Famous (FAMOS) 202 22.93 (+1.22)          Famous (FAMOS) 2002 22.93 (+1.22)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 10000 12.88 (+2.88)          District 10 (DIS10) 10000 14.89 (+0.08)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 20.27 (+0.23)          Famous (FAMOS) 15000 22.93 (+1.22)          Werewolves (WEREW) 1000 17.06 (+1.11)          The SpongeBob Movie 4: Search fo (SPBO4) 10000 64.09 (+0.85)          District 10 (DIS10) 10000 14.89 (+0.08)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 25000 21.09 (+1.78)          Werewolves (WEREW) 9995 17.06 (+1.11)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 75000 14.54 (+2.53)          Pushpa 2: The Rule (PSHP2) 150000 6.09 (-0.16)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 118.37 (-0.44)          Acorns (ACRNS) 150000 85.53 (+0.41)          Werewolves (WEREW) 995 17.06 (+1.11)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 149999 172.99 (-0.90)          On Swift Horses (OSWFH) 150000 5.18 (-0.05)          Nightbitch (NTBTC) 40000 8.80 (+0.04)          Old Guy (OLGUY) 150000 2.07 (-0.02)          Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most (GROM2) 1001 0.15 (+0.01)          Nightbitch (NTBTC) 150000 8.80 (+0.04)          Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most (GROM2) 999 0.15 (+0.01)          The Long Walk (TLWLK) 1042 24.69 (-0.08)          Zorro 2.0 (ZOROR) 149999 0.04 (0.00)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 5021 21.09 (+1.78)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 3003 21.09 (+1.78)          Dear Santa (DSATA) 150000 0.98 (-0.05)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 150000 156.05 (+0.47)